The Royals swing a trade that makes sense for both sides

After Sunday’s howler, JJ Picollo gets back in the good graces of this newsletter by acquiring outfielder Nelson Velázquez for reliever Jose Cuas.

For those of you who, after Sunday’s trade of Nicky Lopez, thought the Royals were incapable of making a transaction that could benefit the roster, JJ Picollo presents Exhibit B.

On Monday, the Royals sent sidearming reliever Jose Cuas to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for outfielder Nelson Velázquez. This is a deal I can get behind.

Velázquez has spent most of the season in Triple-A Iowa for the Cubs, hitting .253/.333/.469 in 330 plate appearances. He’s clubbed 16 home runs with 15 doubles. Velázquez will take a walk about nine percent of the time. Strikeouts have always been an issue. It’s not uncommon for him to whiff over 30 percent of the time in a season. He has it down to around 29 percent this year, so that’s a sliver of progress.

After making his major league debut for the Cubs last year, he played in 77 games and lost his prospect eligibility. He’s also had a cup of coffee earlier this year. Velázquez hasn’t really impressed with the bat in his previous major league exposure, hitting .210/.290/.407 with a 92 OPS+ in 238 PAs. Before that, however, he was routinely graded somewhere in the 10 to 20 range in the various organizational rankings. Ahead of 2022, Baseball America had him ranked 15 in the Chicago organization.

Velázquez has long had loud tools and is finally turning them into production. He generates above-average power out of his compact, muscular build and has made swing adjustments to better access it. He previously struggled with fastballs and was too pull-oriented, but he flattened his swing to stay in the zone longer and now drives high-velocity fastballs to all fields.

That was just after Velázquez put up an insane turn in the 2021 Arizona Fall League, where he hit .385/.480/.712 line. That performance resulted in the Fall League MVP award and put him back on the prospect radar.

The thing I took away from reading various reports on Velázquez is that he put in the work to improve his game. In his first couple years in professional ball, he was a heavy pull hitter who put the ball on the ground more than in the air. He’s since developed more of an all-around approach that generates more loft. FanGraphs noted the alterations to his swing: He replaced a leg kick with a more conservative toe tap while bringing his hands forward, along with a shorter stride. Given the changes the Royals themselves have undergone in the hitting department, you like to see a kid who is willing to listen to coaching and make adjustments.

He will still pull the ball a great deal—that’s where the power is, after all—but it looks like he’s more willing to roll with a pitch and take it to the opposite field than he once was. He’s also improved his fitness to tap into that power potential.

There’s a fit for Velázquez in the Royals outfield. While manager Matt Quatraro has settled on an alignment of MJ Melendez in left, Kyle Isbel in center and Drew Waters in right of late (as much as Q can—or will—settle on any kind of playing time alignment), only Isbel has distinguished himself offensively over the last month. Waters has seen his walk rate tumble from his limited time in 2022, along with his power. Melendez hasn’t shown an iota of improvement or signs that he is a candidate to break out. Velázquez has the athleticism to play either corner outfield spot, but with his plus arm, he’s an ideal right fielder.

While Velázquez is initially ticketed for Omaha, I do wonder if this signals a willingness from the Royals to move on from Edward Olivares. He’s been the odd man out of the outfield mix of late and while the bat generally plays, it’s been icy cold recently. You don’t need me to tell you about his defense which ranges from atrocious to horrific. Q has given Olivares only six starts in the field since June 19. He’s still in the mix at DH, but if he suddenly wasn’t, I don’t think that would be a big deal.

Olivares, arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, would be a likely candidate to be moved in the next day. Of course, it takes two to tango. It also takes two to make a trade. Picollo, despite Sunday’s howler of a trade that saw Nicky Lopez leave for Atlanta, is having difficulty finding a partner.

“There’s only so much we can do from a trade perspective. I mean, somebody has to have interest in our players. When there’s a lot of supply, there’s not as much demand. So there’s a supply in an area where we think we have depth, so the demand is not as great…So it’s been challenging.”

This isn’t surprising. I mean, you’ve watched these Royals, right? Picollo intimated that Taylor Hearn wasn’t just the best they could do for Lopez, but it was the only thing they could do. Discouraging, but here we are. There just isn’t a huge demand for players on a team stumbling to over 110 losses.

That’s not to say there can’t (or won’t) be more deals in the next few hours. The Royals should be fielding calls on everyone, but the most realistic candidates to be moved remain relievers Scott Barlow and Carlos Hernández. If there’s a market for Cuas and a team that is on the periphery of the playoff hunt, there absolutely has to be a market for the Royals’ top two remaining bullpen arms.

Speaking of Cuas, I’m a bit sad to see him go. His is a great story and he’s a fun dude. I enjoy sidearmers and he certainly had the ability to miss bats, but when he was in the zone Cuas wasn’t fooling anyone. Maybe the Cubs see something where they can fix that slider to spot it on the edge more frequently or they can take the spin on the fastball and get him to miss more bats up in the zone. Relievers are weird, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him put it together for a year or two down the road. I wish him the best.

It's impossible to understand the Nicky Lopez trade

This is a trade where you can see the immediate benefits for both sides. Velázquez is blocked in what has become a crowded outfield situation in Chicago. Now he should get an opportunity to show his tools in Kansas City. Cuas has some reliever upside, but isn’t realizing it with the Royals and will now move to Wrigleyville in an attempt to unlock something in his arsenal where, if things go well, he can become a contributor for a team in the playoff hunt.

This isn’t a deal that will get a ton of notice, but it’s just a solid trade that has the potential to be beneficial for both sides. A job well done for the Royals. And the Cubs.