It's impossible to understand the Nicky Lopez trade

You know those fanciful trade ideas where you take a player who was just designated for assignment and spin him into something useful? The Braves just did that at the expense of the Royals.

As the Royals careen toward the worst season in franchise history, and one of the worst ever in the major leagues, it’s no surprise there’s a “for sale” sign hanging outside the clubhouse. The Royals and general manager JJ Picollo should be taking calls on everyone. There can be no untouchables on a team with a .299 winning percentage.

That one of the first moves the Royals made just ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline was to send Nicky Lopez to Atlanta wasn’t surprising. The return of 28-year-old left-handed reliever Taylor Hearn was unexpected. And not in a good way.

As much as I enjoy watching Lopez play ball, he doesn’t bring much juice to the trade deadline. His best offensive season was 2021, powered by a .347 BABIP. Outside of his rookie season when he finished with a .273 BABIP, Lopez has never been higher than a .265 BABIP. He’s just naturally one of those low batting average on balls in play guys. Even though he’s shown more patience at the plate this season (a career-best 11.2 percent walk rate), his already modest power has evaporated. He’s managing just a 72 wRC+ in 190 PAs.

The value, of course, comes from his defense. With Lopez, it’s both about ability and versatility. He can play any position (as we saw in his swansong on Sunday, even first base!) and he can play it exceptionally well. Put him at second for a full season, and you have a candidate for a Gold Glove. Move him around in a utility role or late-inning defensive replacement and you have a sneaky good weapon off the bench. That’s the rub. During Lopez’s tenure, through no fault of his own, the Royals haven’t been good enough to deploy Lopez in a manner where they would realize maximum value.

Personally, I’m disappointed to see him go. Lopez is a favorite of mine because even though the offense is below average, he’s been a grinder. A leader in the clubhouse, he’s an easy guy to root for. A solid ballplayer. An exceptional human. I’m glad he had a season like we saw in 2021. That inflated BABIP pushed him to a 105 wRC+, and with his typically stellar defense, he finished with a 6.0 fWAR. Six-point-oh! We tend to scoff at outliers like that, but it is so easy to root for Lopez that that 2021 season was more fun than annoying.

There’s certainly a modicum of value that Lopez brings, but it doesn’t move the needle all that much. The return was never going to be special, but I figured that if he was on the move, the Royals would grab another low-level minor-league pitching prospect. A lottery ticket, if you will. When the Royals landed a 28-year-old bullpen veteran in Hearn, it was surprising and confounding. That Hearn was designated for assignment by the Texas Rangers and purchased by the Atlanta Braves a week ago made this deal indefensible.

The Royals gave away a useful player for a reliever who could have been purchased a mere seven days ago. A reliever with a career 5.26 ERA with a 4.2 BB/9 and 8.6 SO/9 in 229.1 major league innings.

There’s some salary reliever there in that the Braves will assume the remainder of the $3.7 due to Lopez while the Royals will be on the hook for what is left of the $1.4 million owed Hearn. Was this really about salary, though? My god. Sure, Lopez was probably heading toward a non-tender after this season, but they basically gave him away. No offense to Hearn, but relievers like him are acquired the way the Braves went about it—by picking him off the DFA pile for cash. There were other teams (like the Giants) interested in Lopez. You cannot tell me that Hearn was the best return they could get. If that is the case, there’s literally no harm in walking away. Hold out for some 22-year-old minor leaguer with a slice of upside.

The Royals, of course, will tell you that they like Hearn, that they’ve had their eyes on him for a while. You know, if that was truly the case, if the Royals really wanted him, he was DFA’d a week ago! For a few flippin’ dollars, he was available. Anyway…

From Picollo via Anne Rogers at MLB.com:

“(Hearn was) always somebody we’ve had some interest in because he’s a big left-hander with a big fastball. Got to work on his command a little bit, but the velocity’s there. The pitch characteristics are something we look for, the slider’s good.

“It just seemed to match up value-for-value.”

I gotta say, even with Lopez’s limited value, I’m not feeling that supposed value-for-value match.

Hearn throws that fastball in the mid-90s and has had some major league success but ran into difficult times in 2023. It tends to go that way for relievers, especially if they have trouble with command. He’s been better at Triple-A, throwing 39.1 innings with a 3.66 ERA to go along with 54 strikeouts, but the command issues remain with 24 walks. He will start his Royals career at Triple-A Omaha. Like all pitchers on the 40-man, I expect to see him in Kansas City soon.

Hearn debuted in 2019 for the Rangers, but was placed on the IL the very next day with inflammation in his elbow. During a rehab assignment a couple of months later, he fractured that elbow. He did battle back to feature regularly for Texas in 2020 through last season, both as a starter and reliever.

I’ve given the Royals the benefit of the doubt when acquiring young arms because it’s usually a gamble worth taking. Perhaps their minor league staff can unlock something. It’s a long shot but one that could pay dividends. The proverbial lottery ticket. With a pitcher of more experience like Hearn, it just feels like an even longer shot. This one doesn’t really even qualify as a lottery ticket.

It feels weird to be worked up about this trade because, in the big picture, it just doesn’t matter for the Royals. Lopez is a role player with limited value on a team that will lose around 110 games. Hearn is another arm in the bullpen churn. However, the optics of a team trading a respected, veteran leader for a fringe reliever who was freely available when he was designated for assignment just days ago is not a good look.

I have no idea what’s going on at One Royal Way, but whatever it is, it’s not good. A rebuilding team doesn’t make a trade like this. It’s like they’re tacitly okay with 110 losses. Alas. If this was a clever front office, they wouldn’t be in this position in the first place. This is a statement move from Picollo, but it’s not the statement he was probably hoping to make.

You know, Amir Garrett is still available.