Projecting the 26, Take 3
Does Bobby Witt Jr. make an appearance? Oh my!
With an eye to making noise in the AL Central starting next month, the Royals are currently laying waste to the Cactus League. Their hitting is dominant. Their pitching is solid, if at times spectacular. Optimism is usually rampant this time of year, but in 2021 it’s threatening to shoot off the charts.
With the exhibition wins piling up, it’s time to revisit the roster projections to see who is expected in Kansas City once the Cactus League banner has been hoisted and the parade has run past the Surprise location of Arby’s. As always, hanges will be presented in bold.
Catchers
Cam Gallagher, Salvador Perez
No change, no change, no change.
As expected the status here remains the same. Perez is hitting .400/.455/.850 in 22 plate appearances through Sunday with three dingers. Then he went 2-2 against the Giants on Monday with a double. He’s setting himself up for an attempt at a repeat of his outstanding 2020 offensive season. Gallagher is hitting .357/.438/.357 in 16 plate appearances
Also on the 40-man: Sebastian Rivero, Meibrys Viloria
In my previous dispatch, I mistakenly stated Viloria was out of options. According to former MLB.com beat writer Jeffery Flanagan, Viloria picked up a fourth option due to injuries and overall professional experience. The Royals shipped him out to Triple-A last week.
Read into that whatever you like. Rivero is still in camp, as is non-roster invitee Nick Dini. Those two combined have 12 plate appearances. Of course, they can still use Viloria in an exhibition game as they did on Monday with MJ Melendez who they also reassigned to minor league camp last week.
Infield
Hanser Alberto, Hunter Dozier, Nicky Lopez, Adalberto Mondesi, Ryan O’Hearn, Carlos Santana
Lopez is having a terrible spring, hitting .111/.238/.111 with eight strikeouts in 21 plate appearances through Sunday. He went 0-3 with another whiff on Monday. If he was an experienced major leaguer with a track record of success like Santana (.192/.276/.308 in 29 PAs through Sunday) you would just go with an explanation about a veteran knowing what he has to do in spring training to get ready for the regular season and who cares about exhibition baseball anyway? But Lopez doesn’t have a major league track record of success. This is starting to feel like a guy who didn’t have any real competition when camp opened to playing his way off the Opening Day roster.
When I say that Lopez didn’t have competition when camp opened, that wasn’t about ignoring the presence of Alberto. Back on my first roster projection, I had Alberto penciled in as a utility infielder with an eye on regular reps at the keystone should Lopez falter. Alberto is hitting .385/.500/.462 in 16 plate appearances. Alberto was probably going to get playing time as the right-handed hitter in a platoon with Lopez, but now the competition for a full-time gig is officially open.
O’Hearn (.211/.348/.684 in 23 PAs) continues to have the edge as a left-handed bat off the bench.
Also on the 40-man: Ryan McBroom, Kelvin Gutierrez, Lucius Fox
Gutierrez and Fox were optioned to Triple-A ahead of the game on Monday. McBroom remains in camp and has hit .300/.300/.600 in 20 plate appearances.
Also in consideration: Bobby Witt Jr.
A special category for The Phenom! Let’s get wild.
I am so tempted to put Witt in the mix. So tempted. But I shall resist temptation. For at least this edition. This is now something akin to a cliffhanger. Stay tuned for the next installment!
Outfield
Andrew Benintendi, Jarrod Dyson, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Michael A. Taylor
In my previous roster projection, I had Nick Heath in the mix for a spot and described him thusly:
More Terrance Gore than Jarrod Dyson…
Then the Royals went out and signed the actual Jarrod Dyson. Heath was optioned to Omaha on Monday.
I suppose we could be looking at some sort of a platoon in center with Dyson and Taylor, but I have doubts about giving Dyson any kind of regular platoon playing time. I suppose it depends on how Taylor starts out of the gate. It feels like the outfield is set with Benintendi-Taylor-Merrifield going from left to right with Soler getting the majority of the time as the DH. Dyson is the fourth outfielder here.
Also on the 40-man: Heath, Eduardo Olivares
Rotation
Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Brady Singer, Danny Duffy, Kris Bubic
Some minor reshuffling here as I’ve projected the order in which the starters take their turn in the rotation. It’s clear Keller is the number one. And the current exhibition rotation sets up for him to make the Opening Day start. Keller will start on Tuesday against the Mariners and while it’s not official yet, should make two more spring starts after that with the last coming on March 27. There is some wiggle room in the schedule where he could get make his final Cactus League start the day prior which would buy him an extra day between that start and Opening Day.
Keller has been followed in the spring rotation by Minor. The fifth starter type has followed Minor. Junis made one start and Lynch threw the most recent game last weekend. Then comes Singer followed by Duffy. Therefore, Duffy and Minor have exchanged places in my projected rotation.
Don’t forget the Royals don’t need a fifth starter until the second full week of the season.
Also on the 40-man: Scott Blewett, Ronald Bolaños, Carlos Hernández, Daniel Tillo, Angel Zerpa
Bullpen
Scott Barlow, Brad Brach, Jake Brentz, Wade Davis, Jesse Hahn, Greg Holland, Jakob Junis, Kyle Zimmer
And this is where things get crazy. Let’s start with the certainties. Holland will close. Davis will set up with Hahn in the mix as well. Zimmer and Barlow are also locks.
Brach and Brentz are non-roster invitees. Brach is having a fine spring, allowing just one hit over 3 innings while walking two and striking out a pair. I currently give him the edge in the bullpen over Staumont who is just getting back into action after contracting Covid. Apparently, it was quite a hit where he lost “a significant amount” of weight and slept about 20 hours a day. So he’s basically trying to make up for a lost three to four weeks of camp and he’s trying to build back his normal strength. I don’t discount his recovery, but my thinking at this moment is that with a bunch of options to fill spots in the bullpen, the Royals won’t feel the need to rush him back into regular game action until he’s absolutely ready. We’re talking days, not weeks. He will be in Kansas City.
Brentz is a hard-throwing lefty who has punched out seven batters in 4.1 innings. He’s also walked four. It’s electric stuff that needs to be tamed, but with Lovelady having an option left and just given the way the Royals have handled him in the past, I’m thinking Brentz is the southpaw in the bullpen for now.
Not to be lost in the discussion is how excellent the relievers have thrown this spring. The group above has a collective 1.61 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 29 innings. Although it should be noted that Davis has not whiffed a single hitter in his four innings of work.
Other’s on the 40-man: Richard Lovelady, Jake Newberry, Josh Staumont, Tyler Zuber
Lovelady has once again looked strong in the Cactus League. He has yet to allow a run in 3.2 innings and struck out four against a single walk. He has an option remaining, so he falls victim to the dreaded numbers game.
I'm not sold on Brentz. One thing consistent with Brentz is that he ALWAYS walks guys. A lot of guys, too, too many guys, everywhere he's been, and at every level, and every season. Like 6 or 7 per nine innings. Hope its Lovelady instead. Agree that Staumont doesn't start the year on the 26 man. I think we may see 14 pitchers with 9 in the pen and Zuber gets the last spot. Its my understanding that the 13 man limit has been waived for this year but I could be wrong.