Projecting the 26; Take 2
Fielders assemble!
Finally. The rest of the squad joined the pitchers and catchers in Surprise for the first time on Monday. “It’s just nice to officially get going,” Mike Matheny said of having everyone together. “But here we go. (I’m) just really impressed of where the guys are…It was a really good first day.”
Early spring training is all about the reps and the fundamentals. Groundballs, shagging flies, PFPs…It’s also about an A-plus sock game.
With everyone assembled, it’s a good time to reassess the roster projection first presented a week and a half ago. I’ll continue to do this throughout the spring, so hey…subscribe now!
Changes from the previous projection will be presented in bold.
Catchers
Cam Gallagher, Salvador Perez
The only way this goes differently is if one of either Perez or Gallagher has to miss time for any reason. There’s just simply not a competition here in any way.
Also on the 40-man: Sebastian Rivero, Meibrys Viloria
Out of options, Viloria will be an interesting case as spring progresses. He hasn’t hit for pop since rookie ball and has seen his strikeout rate increase as he’s progressed up the organizational ladder. Of course, he also made the jump from High-A to the bigs in 2018 and had almost 150 plate appearances in Kansas City the following year. Could the Royals get him through waivers and safely into Triple-A? It wouldn’t be surprising if he was one of the final cuts of camp.
Infield
Hanser Alberto, Hunter Dozier, Nicky Lopez, Adalberto Mondesi, Ryan O’Hearn, Carlos Santana
This the second position in a row where I’m holding steady. The infield sets up Santana-Lopez-Mondesi-Dozier around the horn with Alberto getting plenty of time in a utility role.
I still don’t feel great about including O’Hearn, and with Benintendi in the fold, they don’t necessarily need a lefty bat off the bench, but my gut says to stay with the initial projection.
Always go with your gut. And the lefty.
Also on the 40-man: Ryan McBroom, Kelvin Gutierrez, Lucius Fox
Gutierrez is interesting in that he’s put up some solid, if unspectacular, numbers in his journey through the minors. He also grades out as a plus defender at third. He just hasn’t put it all together to force the issue. He hit .287/.367/.427 in 327 Triple-A plate appearances in 2019, but an overall lack of power and general defensive versatility keep him on the fringe of the big league roster.
To paraphrase a defense attorney, McBroom can hit, but he just doesn’t fit. With the upgrade of Santana at first, that firmly limits his rosterability. Both he and O’Hearn have options remaining so there’s no edge for either of them when it comes to that particular status.
Outfield
Andrew Benintendi, Nick Heath, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Michael A. Taylor
The Benintendi trade brought the Royals their left-handed bat and filled the spot in left field for the next two years. It also caused some movement on the projections as it pushed Edward Olivares to the outside and Nick Heath onto the 26.
My thinking is since Benintendi a lock for left, and with similar locks in place with Taylor and Merrifield in center and right respectively, there will be a lot less mix-and-match in the Royals’ outfield. (And yes, Taylor is going to play every day in center.) This means that having a true fourth outfielder on board—like Heath—is where the Royals will go with this roster spot. The benefit of this is that Olivares can go to Omaha and get regular playing time. Even though he turns 25 early next month, he still has just 650 plate appearances above A-ball in his career. And that includes 100 in the majors last summer. It seems like he would benefit maybe a little seasoning and regular playing time he won’t find on a major league roster.
Heath is an 80-grade runner but he whiffs way too much to take advantage of those wheels. He hits from the left side, but his skills would be better served when utilized as a pinch-runner or late-inning defensive replacement if the need arose. If you’re looking for a burner comp, Heath is more Terrance Gore than Jarrod Dyson.
Also on the 40-man: Olivares
Rotation
Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Brady Singer, Mike Minor, Kris Bubic
The possibility of the Royals turning to a six-man rotation was discussed in this space last week, but let’s not forget Matheny was really kind of hedging his bets when discussing that as an option. What is certain is the Royals are approaching the start of 2021 as if it were a normal season. That means a four-man rotation from the jump with the fifth man slotting in when necessary. In this case, it’s somewhere around the 12th game of the year.
The names and the order remain unchanged, and that’s a good thing. We’re a little over a week since the pitchers and catchers reported and that means there haven’t been any injuries or setbacks of any kind. It’s early, but take the wins where they present themselves.
Also on the 40-man: Scott Blewett, Ronald Bolaños, Carlos Hernández, Daniel Tillo, Angel Zerpa
The two pitchers I’ll be most interested to follow in this camp aren’t on the 40-man. One is Daniel Lynch, who is regarded almost universally as the Royals’ top pitching prospect. He will undoubtedly force his way into the mix at some point this season as the Royals will try to manage innings for their young staff. Here’s what Perez had to say about the lefty on Monday:
As a young pitcher, I’m not sure you can have a better endorsement in Kansas City than to earn the praise of Perez.
While the plethora of young arms drew Perez’s attention on Monday, there’s plenty of chatter around Ervin Santana. He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee after sitting out in 2020 and throwing just over 100 innings in the majors and minors combined the previous year with not much success. Yet he drew raves throwing in the Dominican League this winter for Licey, punching out 25 in 20.2 innings en route to a 2.61 ERA. I really have my doubts he can go the entire year in the rotation (or maybe even a whole month) but there can be some utility that could be leveraged here. Maybe as an opener if the Royals decide to go that direction? Again, this season will be all about managing workload and innings. A veteran like Santana can be tremendously helpful in that regard.
“It is a reality that teams are going to need more depth than a typical year,” Matheny said on Monday. “To me that’s opportunity.”
Matheny acknowledged there will need to be a mix between the young arms and the veterans who can take the ball and know what it’s like to make 30-plus starts over the course of 162 games. Lynch and Santana are two could force the issue early.
Bullpen
Scott Barlow, Wade Davis, Jesse Hahn, Greg Holland, Jakob Junis, Richard Lovelady, Josh Staumont, Kyle Zimmer
After reflecting on the names I put in the Royals’ bullpen in the first iteration of this projection, the lack of a left-hander just continued to bother me. It’s not necessary, especially with the three-batter rule in place, but darn it, a bullpen just doesn’t feel complete without a southpaw. There weren’t a lot of options on the free agent market to start; now all of those are gone. As for trades, it’s difficult to imagine the Royals making a deal specifically for a lefty reliever. That means the options will have to come in-house and that means—for the moment—Lovelady.
Also on the 40-man: Jake Newberry, Tyler Zuber
There’s not a lot of bullpen depth on the 40-man, so the club added Brad Brach to a minor league deal with an invite to camp. Brach has appeared in parts of 10 major league seasons and was an All-Star back in 2011. He’s struggled with his command as his walk rate has almost tripled since 2017. Last year, Brach issued 14 free passes along with 14 strikeouts in 12.1 innings of relief work. Plus, his fastball velocity was down almost 5 mph from 2019. He’s a longshot to make this bullpen when the club heads north.