I know the traditional way the magic number is calculated it's at 8, but the reality is that it's at 7 because the Royals have the tiebreaker over the Tigers (H2H) and the Mariners (Division record) so even if either team ties the Royals, they're still locked in.
Also, I was discussing playoff rotations yesterday and I came up with an idea that I have decided I absolutely love for the postseason rotation. Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, and then Singer for the fourth spot but with the understanding that he's only going three innings so he should not hold anything back and then they can piggyback Lynch, Marsh, and/or Lorenzen from there.
I’m going to keep doing the traditional magic number thing. It’s already too damn difficult. Rob Manfred has taken something that used to be straightforward and turned it into some kind of nonsensical mathematical journey.
There are a few ways the rotation can play out in October. But I think we all agree with the top three. From there it’s about matchups and making sure guys stay sharp and are able to bounce from rotation to bullpen. It will be nice for Q to have options.
The Royals have twelve games remaining. The current rotation will have Lugo and Ragans pitching in the final two games against Atlanta leaving them unavailable for the the first two games of the wild card series. I wonder if they might throw a six man rotation through these final cycles making Lugo, Ragans and Wacha available for the wild card series with 4 days rest? Did that make any sense?
They went with a six-man rotation for a turn back at the end of August, but that went out the window when Lorenzen hit the IL. His availability will probably play a factor. They could also throw an opener at some point.
The schedule will also play a factor. If the Royals have the race tied up prior to the Atlanta series, they will certainly move things around so a combination of Lugo and Ragans get the first two games.
The only thing we know at this point is Lugo, Ragans and Marsh are your starters for the Detroit series.
Yes and it is a little to early to make those decisions. If Lorenzen is unavailable they could give Lynch a spot start. I image they don't want a Marsh, Wacha, Singer rotation in the wild card series
You're better with numbers than I am, so what are the odds of Witt losing the batting title if he doesn't pick up the pace? He doesn't need to be as blisteringly hot as he was in July & August, but is his September concerning?
Since hovering around .350 for about a week in the middle of August, Witt has seen his BA drop to its current .331. That’s the result of nearly 100 PAs where he hit .239/.299/.511. Concerning, but if you believe in BABIP, he’s posted a .221 BABIP over that time and from what I’ve seen, he’s still stinging the baseball, so there’s probably a bit of bad luck involved. (This comes about a week after he was hit in the hand with a pitch against the Twins.)
Over that same stretch (roughly), Aaron Judge lost about 10 points off his average. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has about broken even.
If Witt continues his .250 pace over this month, he would finish around .327. Judge or Guerrero would need to go around .400 to catch Witt. Keep in mind, this is all napkin math, rough estimates. I wouldn’t go so far as to say Witt has this in the bag, but I would say the dwindling number of games and the current 10 point gap is in his favor.
Thanks. Fingers crossed that he can keep the average up & steal a couple more bases for the 30/30 season. I think the batting title & the 30/30 should guarantee him 2nd in the MVP race.
Wow, I was just sitting here thinking about all the pitchers we went and got in 2018. And how we will have Lugo and Wacha going in the playoffs instead of ANY OF THEM. What a fail. But that was the old regime. Movin on…
I remember writing at the time that of the five pitchers taken (Singer, Kowar, Lynch IV, Bubic and Bowlan) that the odds were against the Royals developing all of them. They would be fortunate to get two starters out of that bunch. Injuries, underperformance and just a failure to develop will come for pitching prospects.
Singer has been a big part of the story this year. Bubic is returning from Tommy John and will be an important part of the bullpen. Lynch IV seems to be adapting to the bullpen. I’d say they got just about what we could expect from that group. They’re going to make up about a quarter of the pitching staff for the postseason. That’s not a fail.
And let’s not forget about their sixth pick in 2018: Kyle Isbel.
I’m far from a Dayton Moore apologist, but a contending team will always need to fill gaps through free agency or trades. They didn’t develop into front line starters, but there’s still plenty of value there.
I strongly second your David Maraniss Clemente biography recommendation. And viewing the last two weeks of the season for an October prism—what a fun sentence to read and write!
Hey Craig, I just subscribed to you a couple of months ago (thanks to Royals Review giving you a shoutout on the daily Royal Rumblings). You are to the Royals as what Seth Keysor is for me to the Chiefs. This is great work and I appreciate the video clips and references to Baseball Savant and other analytic sites to get me to think differently about the game of baseball. Great stuff.
Ha I just got off a comment rant on the umpiring on Inside the Crown. I am hoping to pretend that they aren't ridiculous at least until the postseason.
Is it just me or is Lynchs box score looking a lot better than some of his pitches?
I’m not certain Lynch is super comfortable out there at the moment, but he’s finding a way. I’d give him a bit of latitude. His velocity was up a tick across the board on Sunday, so I would say he’s buying in to a different approach out of relief where he just lets it eat. It can’t be that easy, shifting from rotation to the bullpen. I don’t think there will be much of an issue going forward. I hope.
I know the traditional way the magic number is calculated it's at 8, but the reality is that it's at 7 because the Royals have the tiebreaker over the Tigers (H2H) and the Mariners (Division record) so even if either team ties the Royals, they're still locked in.
Also, I was discussing playoff rotations yesterday and I came up with an idea that I have decided I absolutely love for the postseason rotation. Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, and then Singer for the fourth spot but with the understanding that he's only going three innings so he should not hold anything back and then they can piggyback Lynch, Marsh, and/or Lorenzen from there.
I’m going to keep doing the traditional magic number thing. It’s already too damn difficult. Rob Manfred has taken something that used to be straightforward and turned it into some kind of nonsensical mathematical journey.
There are a few ways the rotation can play out in October. But I think we all agree with the top three. From there it’s about matchups and making sure guys stay sharp and are able to bounce from rotation to bullpen. It will be nice for Q to have options.
The Royals have twelve games remaining. The current rotation will have Lugo and Ragans pitching in the final two games against Atlanta leaving them unavailable for the the first two games of the wild card series. I wonder if they might throw a six man rotation through these final cycles making Lugo, Ragans and Wacha available for the wild card series with 4 days rest? Did that make any sense?
They went with a six-man rotation for a turn back at the end of August, but that went out the window when Lorenzen hit the IL. His availability will probably play a factor. They could also throw an opener at some point.
The schedule will also play a factor. If the Royals have the race tied up prior to the Atlanta series, they will certainly move things around so a combination of Lugo and Ragans get the first two games.
The only thing we know at this point is Lugo, Ragans and Marsh are your starters for the Detroit series.
Yes and it is a little to early to make those decisions. If Lorenzen is unavailable they could give Lynch a spot start. I image they don't want a Marsh, Wacha, Singer rotation in the wild card series
You're better with numbers than I am, so what are the odds of Witt losing the batting title if he doesn't pick up the pace? He doesn't need to be as blisteringly hot as he was in July & August, but is his September concerning?
Since hovering around .350 for about a week in the middle of August, Witt has seen his BA drop to its current .331. That’s the result of nearly 100 PAs where he hit .239/.299/.511. Concerning, but if you believe in BABIP, he’s posted a .221 BABIP over that time and from what I’ve seen, he’s still stinging the baseball, so there’s probably a bit of bad luck involved. (This comes about a week after he was hit in the hand with a pitch against the Twins.)
Over that same stretch (roughly), Aaron Judge lost about 10 points off his average. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has about broken even.
If Witt continues his .250 pace over this month, he would finish around .327. Judge or Guerrero would need to go around .400 to catch Witt. Keep in mind, this is all napkin math, rough estimates. I wouldn’t go so far as to say Witt has this in the bag, but I would say the dwindling number of games and the current 10 point gap is in his favor.
Thanks. Fingers crossed that he can keep the average up & steal a couple more bases for the 30/30 season. I think the batting title & the 30/30 should guarantee him 2nd in the MVP race.
Last year, Witt fell into a home run drought in September. This year, it’s a stolen base drought. Baseball is weird.
I think he’s #2 in the MVP vote no matter what happens from here to the end of the season.
Wow, I was just sitting here thinking about all the pitchers we went and got in 2018. And how we will have Lugo and Wacha going in the playoffs instead of ANY OF THEM. What a fail. But that was the old regime. Movin on…
I remember writing at the time that of the five pitchers taken (Singer, Kowar, Lynch IV, Bubic and Bowlan) that the odds were against the Royals developing all of them. They would be fortunate to get two starters out of that bunch. Injuries, underperformance and just a failure to develop will come for pitching prospects.
Singer has been a big part of the story this year. Bubic is returning from Tommy John and will be an important part of the bullpen. Lynch IV seems to be adapting to the bullpen. I’d say they got just about what we could expect from that group. They’re going to make up about a quarter of the pitching staff for the postseason. That’s not a fail.
And let’s not forget about their sixth pick in 2018: Kyle Isbel.
I’m far from a Dayton Moore apologist, but a contending team will always need to fill gaps through free agency or trades. They didn’t develop into front line starters, but there’s still plenty of value there.
And, didn’t Kowar come out of that ‘18 draft? He, I believe, brought us back Kyle Wright who may figure into the ‘25 rotation.
I strongly second your David Maraniss Clemente biography recommendation. And viewing the last two weeks of the season for an October prism—what a fun sentence to read and write!
Thanks, Murray. What an extraordinary season.
Hey Craig, I just subscribed to you a couple of months ago (thanks to Royals Review giving you a shoutout on the daily Royal Rumblings). You are to the Royals as what Seth Keysor is for me to the Chiefs. This is great work and I appreciate the video clips and references to Baseball Savant and other analytic sites to get me to think differently about the game of baseball. Great stuff.
Thank you, Chris! That’s some high praise that I truly appreciate. And thanks to my friends at Royals Review for pointing you in this direction.
Ha I just got off a comment rant on the umpiring on Inside the Crown. I am hoping to pretend that they aren't ridiculous at least until the postseason.
Is it just me or is Lynchs box score looking a lot better than some of his pitches?
I’m not certain Lynch is super comfortable out there at the moment, but he’s finding a way. I’d give him a bit of latitude. His velocity was up a tick across the board on Sunday, so I would say he’s buying in to a different approach out of relief where he just lets it eat. It can’t be that easy, shifting from rotation to the bullpen. I don’t think there will be much of an issue going forward. I hope.