The countdown is on

The Royals take two of three in Pittsburgh as they draw closer to qualifying for the postseason tournament.

The Royals kicked off the stretch run of the 2024 season in style, taking two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend.

The victories certainly matter at this point, but there are some other numbers and percentages and facts that remain important as we enter the final two weeks of the regular season. They boosted their playoff odds from 95 percent after play on Thursday to their current 97 percent. They won their 82nd game on Saturday, clenching their first winning season since 2015. They solidified their place in the Wild Card race.

Yep…the weekend started off so well…and then ended with a dud on Sunday.

It was another frustrating start from Brady Singer. Once again, he largely pocketed the sweeper and the four-seam fastball that gives opposing hitters just enough of a wrinkle to keep them on their toes.

One of the things I’ve been harping on with Singer is his reluctance to throw his four-seamer later in the count. The vast majority of his four-seam fastballs are offered within the first three pitches of the plate appearance. But look at how effective he can be when he throws it later in the count. This was against Brian Reynolds in the fifth inning.

It’s a 2-2 elevated four-seamer that was set up by a (gasp!) sweeper that was down and away the previous pitch. In fact, all of the previous four pitches in the at bat were down. That’s how a 91 MPH fastball up and out of the zone can be a weapon. Even one that is more elevated that he probably wanted it to be.

The result was a positive one because of how Singer set up that pitch. However, in truth, it was far too elevated. That was an issue in his start on Sunday, an overall lack of command. He walked four and surrendered six hits in five innings.

After pitching into the seventh inning in four of his six starts in July, Singer has gone that far just once over his next eight outings. In this stretch, his peripheral numbers look fine—he’s striking out 9.1 SO/9 and walking just 2.9 BB/9, which is in line with his seasonal rates of 8.4 SO/9 and 2.5 BB/9—but he’s sporting a dreadful 5.40 ERA. The FIP, however, remains solid at 3.45. That’s something you would expect given those strong peripherals, but something isn’t clicking.

Singer wasn’t helped by an offense that decided to keep the bats in the rack with runners in scoring position. Combined, the Royals went 1-12 with RISP. They loaded the bases with nobody out in the second and scored just one run—on a sacrifice fly. Tommy Pham tripled to lead off the third and was gunned down at home, attempting to score on a flyout off the bat of Bobby Witt Jr.. That was followed by singles from Salvador Perez and Michael Massey.

I thought the attempt to score Pham was a good one. A perfect throw from right fielder Billy Cook was the difference. The Royals challenged this call at home, even though Pham was clearly out. The challenge was about Pham having a clear path to the plate, a somewhat ambiguous distinction when a catcher has to move to receive the throw. It’s something worth throwing out a challenge on because who the hell knows how the replay control center will rule.

In the fourth, the Royals had back-to-back doubles from Yuli Gurriel and Maikel Garcia with one out, advanced to third on a passed ball, but couldn’t get another run home.

In the sixth, they loaded the bases with one out and could only score once, on a Witt walk.

Yeah…this game had extreme 2023 vibes. We don’t need that. Fortunately, these games haven’t come along very often in 2024. As we learned in 2015, a couple of September clunkers don’t mean a thing. Wash them out of the system and show up to play in October.

It’s probably obvious at this point that I’m tending to view these games through a prism that looks toward October. While Singer is scuffling at the moment, I can’t help but think that if the Royals were assembling a playoff rotation today, he would probably be the fourth starter in a seven-game series or a long man until the Royals reach that point.

There’s more about some individual players below. Just some random thoughts at this point. But with two weeks to go, there are a few guys who are playing for a spot on the postseason roster.

Umpiring was an issue all weekend long. Specifically, home plate umpiring. On Friday, home plate umpire Roberto Ortiz missed 22 ball/strike calls. According to Ump Scorecards, that was among the worst performances of the season.

Saturday’s home plate umpire, Chad Fairchild, didn’t fare much better on the accuracy meter.

As you know, I absolutely loathe talking about umpiring, especially the action behind the plate. There are so many things to watch and discuss and ponder from a single baseball game, to spend any energy at all on the balls and strikes isn’t ideal.

But!

These two charts are just abysmal. I realize that automatic balls and strike calls are in the near future, but even once those arrive, there needs to be some kind of system in place to hold umpires accountable. And that system needs to be transparent. We have sites like Ump Scorecards and even the pitch charts on Baseball Savant and MLB.com can illustrate how bad a particular umpire is behind the plate. Baseball staying silent about their processes doesn’t help the situation.

Then, there was this in the eighth inning on Sunday with Maikel Garcia at the plate.

How is this even possible? How can an umpire call pitch four and six a ball and then pitch seven a strike? How can pitch six and seven be called differently? They are both 97 MPH fastballs in almost the exact same location.

I’ve written enough about this. Baseball needs to get serious.

I thought it was extremely cool that the Royals were in Pittsburgh on Roberto Clemente Day. Just a fortunate quirk of the schedule, but any time you can spend time thinking about the person and the ballplayer, it’s worthwhile. Salvador Perez is the Royals’ nominee for the Clemente Award this year, which is given to a player who “best exemplifies the game of baseball, sportsmanship, community involvement and the individual’s contribution to his team.” I can’t think of a better choice.

Also, for those of you interested in Clemente’s story, I highly recommend David Maraniss’ biography.

As poor as Sunday’s loss was, Friday night’s 8-3 win could only be described as comprehensive. The Royals scored eight runs on eight hits, with three of those hits leaving the yard. Salvador Perez, Kyle Isbel and Adam Frazier (???) had the honors. Collectively, the Royals were 4-5 with runners in scoring position.

Frazier hasn’t been seen much since the rosters expanded at the start of the month, but he started all three games in Pittsburgh, the city where he began his major league career. He hit that monster home run on Friday and followed that up with a triple on Saturday. A nice homecoming of sorts. That got his slugging percentage to the .300 mark. It’s been a slog of a 2024 season for Frazier, who is currently hitting .204/.282/.300 with a 64 wRC+. All of those numbers are the worst marks of his career.

He’s also been worth -0.6 fWAR which is the worst mark on the team. Should the Royals decide to stick with newcomers Robbie Grossman and Tommy Pham in the postseason, I’m not sure Frazier has a spot beyond the end of the regular season. It’s a tough break for a veteran player, but the Royals have to be focused on the results now. There’s no time for sentimentality in October.

If there was anything not to like about Friday’s performance, it would be Chris Stratton struggling to close out a seven-run lead. In the ninth inning, Stratton allowed two runs on three singles and a hit by pitch. Perhaps his greatest transgression was his struggles meant Lucas Erceg started to get hot in the bullpen. That’s not what you want to have happen when you need three outs before the other team scores seven runs.

The next day the Royals announced Stratton would land on the Injured List with what was termed a “right forearm flexor strain.” They said Stratton had been dealing with the issue for the last couple of months but finally reached a point where he couldn’t pitch through the pain.

Remember, for pitchers the IL is for 15 days. That would take him through to the end of the season. I have to imagine that Stratton was a bit of a long shot to make a postseason roster before he went on the IL. This virtually assures he won’t.

Perhaps Angel Zerpa will take his spot. Zerpa was the corresponding move for Stratton to the IL. Since being optioned to the Storm Chases, the lefty has pitched exceptionally well, throwing 11.1 innings, striking out nine, walking two and allowing just two runs, one earned.

In other injury news, the Royals announced starter Michael Lorenzen made his second rehab start attempting to return from a hamstring strain. The day after the start, he reported feeling more soreness than usual. It sounds like we’ll learn a little more about his status on Monday. He’s a guy who could be a valuable multi-inning reliever for the club in October.

After weeks (or months?) of baseball where it seemed as though there wasn’t a team outside of the current top three interested in challenging for a Wild Card spot, here come the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners.

Seattle took three of four from last year’s champion Texas Rangers with two of the wins the come-from-behind variety. Meanwhile, the Tigers stood toe to toe with the Orioles this weekend, winning two of three.

Today’s playoff odds from FanGraphs are all about the Wild Card. You can’t really see the dot for the Royals, because they’re now the most likely of the teams in the hunt to qualify, edging narrowly ahead of the Orioles. Don’t freak over the 88.5 percent likelihood as that’s just for the Wild Card itself. There’s still an outside chance that the Royals edge the Guardians for the division. Although after this weekend’s slate of games, it seems fairly safe to say that we have our three division winners at this point.

The Royals have three this week against the resurgent Tigers and then three against the San Francisco Giants. That will finish off their home portion of the 2024 season. The Royals’ magic number for the postseason stands at eight. That means the earliest they could clinch would be on Friday night against those Giants. Unlikely, but certainly helped by the fact that the Royals are playing the Tigers.

Whatever happens, it should be a fun and celebratory week at The K.

sldjf