The Royals are throwing hard out of the gate. Plus, I'm still thinking of Jac Caglianone's missile, MJ Melendez is off to a slow start, and an early camp surprise.
I don't think anything is assured when it comes to Melendez, but like you say...it's early. The thing is, as I've been following the games, his swings and misses have really stood out. I think it would be noticeable even if he hadn't reworked his swing. It's that bad.
Still early days, but if we're not seeing more contact at this time next week, then I think it's time to be concerned.
That swing looks like a swing that was not at full effort. I keep ignoring the exit velo and distance because I've heard some stuff about how the Arizona elevation can mess with them, but that was the nicest swing I've seen in a minute.
I'm not sure how exit velocity can be impacted, but I suppose anything is possible. I didn't sniff a physics class while I was in school, for a good reason. Still...the swing was a thing of beauty.
The higher the elevation, the further apart the air molecules, the easier it is for the ball to travel, the faster it goes.
FanGraphs had a thing a couple of years ago that showed little correlation between spring and regular season exit velos, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I think my physics explanation tracks anyway.
I took physics (completely lost, but multiple choice saved me) and statistics a long long time ago in a state far far away.
But pretty sure this article does suggest there is a positive correlation to exit velo in spring training and exit velo in regular season. It is just barely significant, but I think anything with an r value of .5 or above is considered statistically significant.
Basically if Cags jacks balls at 115mph in spring training, he will probably see comparably high exit velos in the regular season. The closer those dots are together along a line, the more significant the correlation, but .5 is still noteworthy.
As I said, it has been a long time, and I could be wrong - my brain hurts
edit: the sample size is really small so encouraging but not a lock
Granted I'll admit before seeing Jac homerun I read in someone tweet about the sound of it, of course I took it with a grain of salt not getting my hopes up. After watching it and hearing it I automatically thought of Buck O'Neal and his story of hearing Ruth, Gibson, Jackson sound of ball hitting the bat.
Yes admittedly I'm probably WAY to excited and over thinking it but that was my first thought. Reality is probably not likely not close be same but we can dream.
I supplied my own audio for the Caglianone HR, so no worries there. Re MJ, is he staying committed to the new stance/swing/approach and fighting what has to be a tempting reversion to old ways? I can’t over-estimate how difficult that sorta wholesale revision has to be at this level.
I think he's still on the new swing, but that's always been my worry...He hits a rough patch and reverts to his old form. It's going to take some time because I think you're correct...this is a massive overhaul.
Glad to say I got to watch Dodgers game on mlb app, sad to say i think MJ might have regressed a bit towards old swing. Still not as crazy as last year, but his PAs were kind of hard to watch
It's great that Caglianone is getting a lot of playing time, but it's been only at 1B, where the Royals already have a leftie power-hitting Italian. I thought they might try him in a corner outfield spot, but nope. Do you see a plan? Trade Vinnie in a year? Or Salvy retire and Jac & Vinnie alternate between 1B and DH?
I don't think anything is assured when it comes to Melendez, but like you say...it's early. The thing is, as I've been following the games, his swings and misses have really stood out. I think it would be noticeable even if he hadn't reworked his swing. It's that bad.
Still early days, but if we're not seeing more contact at this time next week, then I think it's time to be concerned.
That swing looks like a swing that was not at full effort. I keep ignoring the exit velo and distance because I've heard some stuff about how the Arizona elevation can mess with them, but that was the nicest swing I've seen in a minute.
I'm not sure how exit velocity can be impacted, but I suppose anything is possible. I didn't sniff a physics class while I was in school, for a good reason. Still...the swing was a thing of beauty.
The higher the elevation, the further apart the air molecules, the easier it is for the ball to travel, the faster it goes.
FanGraphs had a thing a couple of years ago that showed little correlation between spring and regular season exit velos, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I think my physics explanation tracks anyway.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/analyzing-spring-trainings-exit-velocity-leaders/
You lost me at air molecules. (But yes, this makes sense.)
I took physics (completely lost, but multiple choice saved me) and statistics a long long time ago in a state far far away.
But pretty sure this article does suggest there is a positive correlation to exit velo in spring training and exit velo in regular season. It is just barely significant, but I think anything with an r value of .5 or above is considered statistically significant.
Basically if Cags jacks balls at 115mph in spring training, he will probably see comparably high exit velos in the regular season. The closer those dots are together along a line, the more significant the correlation, but .5 is still noteworthy.
As I said, it has been a long time, and I could be wrong - my brain hurts
edit: the sample size is really small so encouraging but not a lock
Granted I'll admit before seeing Jac homerun I read in someone tweet about the sound of it, of course I took it with a grain of salt not getting my hopes up. After watching it and hearing it I automatically thought of Buck O'Neal and his story of hearing Ruth, Gibson, Jackson sound of ball hitting the bat.
Yes admittedly I'm probably WAY to excited and over thinking it but that was my first thought. Reality is probably not likely not close be same but we can dream.
Same! I almost wrote about it. If we're not going to dream on a prospect after one spring training at bat, when will we ever dream? :)
I thought that same thing, too. Let’s hope so!
So glad I found you on Substack, as I am a lifelong Royals fan, now living in the Chicago area. Go Blue!
Hi Dale! Glad you're here.
Go Royaks!!!! Gonna win the spring training World Series!!
Royaks would pair well with the Fountains Up thing…
Cactus League flags fly forever.
I supplied my own audio for the Caglianone HR, so no worries there. Re MJ, is he staying committed to the new stance/swing/approach and fighting what has to be a tempting reversion to old ways? I can’t over-estimate how difficult that sorta wholesale revision has to be at this level.
I think he's still on the new swing, but that's always been my worry...He hits a rough patch and reverts to his old form. It's going to take some time because I think you're correct...this is a massive overhaul.
For some reason, you supplying your own audio makes me think of Champ Kind from Anchorman:
WHAMMY!
Glad to say I got to watch Dodgers game on mlb app, sad to say i think MJ might have regressed a bit towards old swing. Still not as crazy as last year, but his PAs were kind of hard to watch
Yep - I absolutely want to find that sound and make it my text tone. baseball is bank, Lesky readers!
It's great that Caglianone is getting a lot of playing time, but it's been only at 1B, where the Royals already have a leftie power-hitting Italian. I thought they might try him in a corner outfield spot, but nope. Do you see a plan? Trade Vinnie in a year? Or Salvy retire and Jac & Vinnie alternate between 1B and DH?