Splash Hits: The afterglow

A few more notes on the Bobby Witt Jr. contract extension. Plus, an early look at playoff odds, Zack Greinke still wants to play and there's some meaningful baseball being played in Florida.

It’s been a few days since the news broke of the Bobby Witt Jr. contract extension and it feels safe to say the happiness and good vibes surrounding the deal remain strong as ever.

I was impressed with the way the Royals handled the signing of the deal, from the press conference to the tremendous amount of social media posts and whatnot from the team. It feels kind of dumb to even point it out, but credit goes to where it’s due. Everyone understands what a massive moment this is for the franchise. The Royals themselves stood up and met the moment.

As you would expect, there’s been a lot of bandwidth taken up with the Witt extension. This from Anne Rogers caught my eye:

Witt’s commitment to the Royals is a message, too: He believes in the direction. The 23-year-old loves Kansas City and loves the organization that drafted him No. 2 overall in 2019. He simply wants to play baseball every day, and his idols, Derek Jeter and Dustin Pedroia, are two players who played their entire careers with one organization.

But Witt desperately wants to win, and he wouldn’t have signed a long-term deal without assurance that the Royals would continue to build around him.

“I think now is just the perfect time,” Witt said. “... We had a bad year last year, but now [we’re] just trying to build off that. What can we do to keep performing? You saw all the moves they made this offseason. It’s a sign of hope. I felt like it was the right time, and it’s an exciting time for sure.”

It’s helpful to remember that for someone with Witt’s talents, most, if not all, of the power in the negotiation rests with the player. He can let the team renew his contract for 2024, go through three years of the arbitration process and then exit through free agency (or earlier if the team would trade him). Yet when he buys into what the team is doing to get better…that’s when things start happening. There’s absolutely no way that Witt would sign any kind of contract that would buy out years of his free agency if he didn’t believe the words you read above.

While there was considerable pressure on ownership to get the extension done with Witt, now that the ink is on the contract, the pressure doesn’t abate. The next couple of years are all about improving the squad, not just through the usual avenues that have proven so challenging such as drafting and developing. No…Witt isn’t going to care about some kid tearing it up in the Rookie Leagues. Moves continue to need to be made to strengthen the major league team. It seems so basic, but that’s because it’s true…The Royals have to continue what they’ve started this winter on the free agent market. That means they have to continue to spend to not only sign players but to spin what scant prospect capital resides in the system to get major league-ready players in return. Given the state of the franchise, that’s going to be difficult.

Then again, that’s what pressure is all about.

One thing I did not mention in my write-up on Witt’s extension was how this plays into the Royals (more specifically John Sherman and his ownership group) angling for that sales tax extension so they can fund their new downtown stadium. Sure, it’s a cynical read to say that Sherman okayed the funds for the contract with an eye on the ballot box. Cynical, but probably accurate. Even though 2023 turned into a “season of evaluation” the onus has always been on ownership to open up the wallet to do more than Jordan Lyles and Zack Greinke in an attempt to improve the ballclub.

Mission accomplished on that front. Now their fate is in the hands of an electorate that is probably going to be a bit more welcoming than if the election had been held last November.

As the stadium feels like a fait accompli at the moment, the timing of the Witt extension makes me wonder if the Royals are inadvertently following the path of the Cleveland franchise from 30 years ago. There’s a lot of discussion about the franchise following the Atlanta model in building their ballpark with an entertainment village attached. If the team is serious about competing, they’d be better off emulating Cleveland for how they simultaneously build a new stadium and a contending team.

As the Cleveland ballclub was set to leave the dilapidated Municipal Stadium and move to what was then Jacobs Field, the team, led by General Manager John Hart, had the crazy idea of bringing winning baseball to a market that had last seen the postseason in 1954. Cleveland was terrible. From the advent of division play in 1969 to 1993, the team never finished higher than fourth in the AL East. With the new stadium set to open in 1994, Cleveland had a nucleus of young ballplayers ready to take the field. Kenny Loftin, Carlos Baerga, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez were just a few of the youngsters, joined by veterans such as Eddie Murray and Dennis Martinez. The timing was right for the team to make the move.

The first year in the new yard, Cleveland was in second place, just a game out of first when the strike ended the season. The following year, they qualified for the postseason and advance to the World Series. From there, they went to the playoffs in five of the next six seasons.

The Royals aren’t close to where Cleveland was when they opened their ballpark as far as talent goes. But securing the services of Witt certainly goes a long way.

Speaking of Greinke, here’s a note from Ken Rosenthal:

Free-agent right-hander Zack Greinke, 40, wants to return for a 21st season, according to two sources briefed on his thinking. He just needs to find the right fit, and the Royals’ signings of right-handers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha almost certainly will preclude him from returning to Kansas City.

It sure sounds like Greinke wants to have another spin. Even with all the money splashed this winter, I still think there’s a fit for Greinke on this team. He’d have to take a pay cut and would probably see his innings sliced as well. At this stage though, it’s all about load management and getting the maximum out of an arm that no longer baffles major league hitters. I can see him as an Opener, going once through the lineup, or even as the presumed bulk guy but one who…goes once through the order.

Sure, there doesn’t seem to be room for Greinke on this roster as assembled, but it’s never a bad thing to have a few depth pieces at your disposal. It’s a long shot for a return, but it’s not unthinkable. The really good news is the Royals aren’t in a position where they feel they need him to round out their pitching staff. He would be a complimentary piece, which, at this stage of his career, is how it should be.

In addition to February and late January being Prospect List Season, it’s also Projection Season. Good thing PECOTA and ZiPS and Steamer don’t ignore the Royals.

Let’s start with your favorite—PECOTA. Yes, PECOTA still hates the Royals. They just don’t hate the Royals more than they hate the White Sox. Although I think even White Sox fans hate the White Sox these days.

That’s 70 wins for the Royals, which is in line with the over/unders I’ve seen coming out of Las Vegas. Most sports books have the Royals at 71.5 wins.

One of my favorite parts of PECOTA is the way BP will show the range of simulations. It’s a nice visualization of how the teams in the division stack up against each other.

What I’m reading here is that the circuitry behind PECOTA thinks the Twins and Guardians are still the best in the division, even though most teams have spent the winter doing basically nothing to improve their teams. Although the gap has closed between the Royals and Tigers and those two teams.

FanGraphs, which uses a mixture of ZiPS and Steamer for their projection, is more bullish on the Royals but still sees a similar outcome in the division.

I think 75 wins is a solid target. That would be an improvement of 19 wins from the previous season. All of these projections and odds feel very realistic. Whenever I make my prediction on the 2024 season, I imagine it will be somewhere between 70 and 75 wins.

If anything, these projections underscore how much ground the Royals will need to make up in order to catch their rivals in the division.

Have you been keeping tabs on the Carribean Series? They’ve been playing three games a day in Miami for the last week, and it’s a fantastic way to get a baseball fix.

As round-robin play came to a close on Wednesday, Angel Padron twirled a no-hitter for the champions of the Venezuela Winter League, Tiburones de La Guaira. The Venezuelan side went 5-1 and will advance to the semifinals, starting on Thursday. Tiburones features Alcedes Escobar as their second baseman. He hit .305/.360/.362 for them this winter. The team also featured Maikel Garcia who walloped a respectable .424/.543/.576 over 129 plate appearances before leaving the team to prep for spring training. Oh, Salvador Perez was hanging out catching the action on Sunday from the second row behind home plate. The stars are coming out to watch!

Also advancing to the semis are the Curaçao Suns who upset Criollos de Caguas from Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Nelson Velázquez had a helluva series for the Puerto Rican champions to cap what was a fine winter season where he hit .337/.451/.788.

The other semi will feature the Panamanian champions, Federales de Chiriquí, who have played some of the more exciting games in the tournament, squaring off against the Dominican champs, Tigres del Licey. Both games are available on ESPN+.

You can’t beat meaningful baseball in February.