This is a really big deal

In signing Bobby Witt Jr to a contact extension, the Royals pull off the biggest move in franchise history.

The top of JJ Picollo’s and John Sherman’s to-do list this winter included finding a plethora of arms to solidify a wobbly pitching staff. Check. It also was about finding versatility for position player depth. Check. Oh, and a left-handed bat was wanted. Check. And then there was the small detail of a contract extension for franchise cornerstone Bobby Witt Jr.

All together now: CHECK.

Let the man himself make the announcement:

In addition to being a five-tool player, it turns out that Witt’s GIF game is incredibly strong.

On Monday the Royals and Witt agreed to a contract extension that guarantees the young shortstop will be in Kansas City through the 2030 season. Overall, it’s an 11-year deal valued at $288.7 million. There’s also a three-year club option tacked on to the end that could push the total value of the deal to 14 years and $377.7 million. He also banks the perfect signing bonus of $7,777,777. (I’ve always wondered why more players don’t do things like this. You have a number that’s yours, own it when contract negotiations come up. Stuff like this makes me like the kid even more.)

Here’s the full breakdown of the dollars and the years.

Looking at this from a high-level view, this deal buys out three seasons of Witt’s free agency. Coming off his sophomore season, Witt has exactly two years of major league service time. That means he would’ve been eligible for arbitration starting in 2025. That’s why the deal escalates as it does. For 2028, the earliest he would’ve been eligible for free agency, the dollar value vaults to $30 million.

It’s a contract that, given the talent we’re talking about, feels incredibly player-friendly.

It doesn’t appear that there are escalators or incentives like the extensions for Corbin Carroll or Julio Rodríguez. It’s just a straightforward deal where the Royals said, “We think you will be worth this much in your late 20s,” and Witt and his team simply said, “Agreed.”

Speaking of Witt’s 20s, the genius of this deal is that it covers what should be his prime baseballing years. Obviously, yeah. But it needs to be said. Should Witt decline his player option after the 2030 season, he will hit the open market at age 30. It’s impossible to see that far into the economic future of the game, but the Royals effectively bought out Witt’s 20s with this contract extension. And let’s be clear-eyed about this. If Witt is killing it in 2028 and beyond and the Royals are perennial contenders, and they want to keep him in Kansas City, they will have to renegotiate the deal.

It’s a fun problem to potentially have.

You undoubtedly crave contract superlatives. Let’s roll.

This is the largest contract in Royals history. Sure, sure…That’s the most “no duh” statement in the history of this newsletter. Here are the top contracts the Royals have handed out by guarantee.

Bobby Witt - $288 million (2024)
Salvador Perez - $84 million (2021)
Alex Gordon - $72 million (2016)
Ian Kennedy - $70 million (2016)
Gil Meche - $55 million (2006)

The Royals have shattered their previous high by over $200 million.

The Perez, Gordon, Kennedy and Meche contracts all tell the same cautionary tale when dabbling in the free agent market or when extending players late in their careers. (Perez’s contract extension was inked just ahead of his age 31 season.) As noted above, the Witt deal is different because it buys out the remainder of his 20s. This is why smart teams are getting on the contract extension bandwagon. They are looking to get value in return for their commitment.

All long-term contacts are gambles. Leaps of faith. And that goes for both player and team, although it’s often the team that has regrets.

However, this is one gamble that both sides are absolutely right in taking. There’s a high potential for a win-win situation. Factor in baseball in Kansas City and you’re talking win-win-win.

A contract like this can’t help but change the calculus. Not just in Kansas City and for the Royals and Witt, but for baseball in general. It shatters the small market trope that teams in the Central Divisions have been operating under for the past 30 years.

If the Royals, playing in the 28th largest major league market can afford a contract like this, what exactly is the excuse of the Chicago White Sox? Not that I’m advocating that teams like the White Sox actually punch their financial weight. I’m more than fine with Andrew Benintendi being the recipient of Chicago’s largest-ever contract. Yet if I were a fan of the White Sox, I would be irate. Hell, I’d feel the same if I were a fan of the Guardians or the Twins. This is an eminently winnable division if a team has the foresight and the stones to spend a little money. The Royals and the Tigers are the only teams in the Central that spent the winter being serious.

When it comes to the impact of the Witt contact on the field, there’s going to be a bit of delayed gratification. An extension for a player already on the roster doesn’t make the team any better. The Royals didn’t improve their standing on Monday afternoon. However, they made a statement of intent. Everyone in baseball took notice. Everyone. That so-called free agent tax the Royals have paid in the past? It may not disappear completely overnight, but Picollo and Sherman have certainly done their part to bury it as a factor. Instead of saying to a free agent, “Here’s an extra year,” now they can say, “Come play with a superstar who is going to spend most (if not all) of his career with the Royals.”

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There are a ton of superlatives when it comes to Witt. That’s because he is a true five-tool stud. The speed. The power. The bat. The glove. The arm. Witt has it all.

I think this picture from Baseball Savant illustrates his growth and future potential better than just about any number I can throw out there.

His debut season was rough, especially in the field. By his second year, he was much more comfortable in every facet of the game. The adjustments he made across the board were incredibly impressive. This doesn’t guarantee future success, but it’s a helluva springboard. Like the Royals, I’m buying all the Witt futures.

In their history, the Royals have won four American League pennants and two World Series. They’ve had one of the best players in the game in George Brett for his entire career. Despite the extended period of lean years, there is a history here that matters.

The Bobby Witt Jr. contract extension may just be the most important moment in franchise history.

The game has changed over the years and in many ways has left the Royals behind. They are the classic “have-not” team that has struggled for any kind of relevance. Outside of 2014 and 2015, the Royals have been an afterthought the last 30-odd years.

With this contract, they are pulling up a chair at the table with the big boys. The playing field isn’t level. It never will be level. But the Royals have shown that despite being in the small market class there are resources to get things done. Big things. Important things.

Make no mistake, this is a seismic day in Royals’ history.

Projected 2024 payroll for teams in the AL Central for the Competitive Balance Tax, via Cot’s Contracts:

Kansas City - $158.5 million
Minnesota - $153.8 million
Cleveland - $131.6 million
Chicago - $129.1 million
Detroit - $120.4 million

Overall, the Royals’ projected CBT payroll currently ranks 16th in the majors. All of this is amazing.

Witt has always said he enjoys playing in Kansas City. It means a lot that he’s backed his words with actions.

He’s under no obligation to do that, by the way. Plenty of players have blown through Kansas City saying all the “right” things and then bolting at the first opportunity. Witt has just two years of service time and is only 24 years old, but he’s already a leader in that clubhouse. It says quite a bit about the individual that he is that current and former teammates weighed in to offer congratulations when the deal was announced. The theme in most messages: Great player, better person.

It’s easy to root for someone like Witt.

I think what we are seeing is the Mahomes effect. Sure, the NFL and their contract structures are a different beast entirely from what happens in major league baseball, but we all know how this city has embraced Patrick Mahomes and vice-versa. He’s a full-fledged member of this community and his highly visible as an investor in the Royals and Sporting KC. His wife Brittany is listed as a “founder” of the Kansas City Current and they are both on the team website as “co-owners” along with Chris and Angie Long.

Mahomes is showing that it’s possible to be a superstar while being active in other endeavors that are part of the community. He’s an example and a role model to other stars in other sports. I wouldn’t be surprised if part of Witt’s motivation to sign his extension is to emulate what Mahomes has done in Kansas City. It will be interesting to see the relationship between Witt and this city evolve over the next several years. There’s always been a ton of goodwill there. Now there’s going to be a lot more.

There’s plenty of room for two high-profile athletes in this town. The more the merrier.

Let’s review what’s happened to Kansas City in the last ten days or so:

• The Chiefs will be making their fourth Super Bowl appearance in five years, going for back-to-back titles

• The 2026 World Cup will bring four group-stage games to Arrowhead, plus a round of 32 game and, most impressively, a quarterfinal matchup.

• The new, privately financed stadium for the Kansas City Current was profiled in the Washington Post. When it opens in March, it will be the first stadium built in America specifically for women’s soccer.

• Taylor Swift won a Grammy for Album of the Year. (Yeah, I’m counting this. She’s great. Travis Kelce is great. Their relationship is great.)

• Bobby Witt Jr. signs his extension guaranteeing his future with the Royals.

Sports is not infrastructure, nor is it something like social services, but it is important to a city’s identity and psyche. Take the above list (just a little over a week!) with last year’s opening of the new airport terminal at KCI and our fair city is on quite the roll.

Presented without comment…

Shohei Ohtani rightfully consumed most of the oxygen this winter, signing a mega-contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was the largest deal in baseball history at $700 million. Even with the deferrals (and there are plenty), the deal is valued at around $460 million. Ohtani is a generational player. He deserves to be the highest-paid player in the game.

There have been quite a few younger players over the last several seasons who have signed extensions before they became eligible for free agency. I already touched on Rodríguez in Seattle and Carroll in Arizona. The gold standard though lies with Fernando Tatis in San Diego.

Tatis signed his extension when he was just shy of two years of service time ahead of the 2021 season. It was for 14 years and $340 million. There are no player or team options. It’s a straight 14 and $340.

Should Witt exercise his options, the average annual value of his contract will be $26.25 million. The AAV of the Tatis contract is $24.29 million.

Whoa.

From Cot’s Contracts, the Witt extension is the 16th largest contract awarded in MLB history. The 16th largest! Here’s how it looks in perspective:

14. Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28)
… Trea Turner, $300,000,000 (2023-33)
16. Bobby Witt Jr., $288,777,777 (2024-34)
17. Xander Bogaerts, $280,000,000 (2023-33)
18. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
19. Nolan Arenado, $260,000,000 (2019-26)

It’s also the third-highest contract handed out this winter, behind only Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto who signed for $325 million.

Friends, my head is spinning.

Despite the celebratory tone of this edition, there is work to be done. The time from late January to early February is what I like to call “prospect list season,” a time when the minor league hounds release their “Top 100” lists. As you are probably aware, there is little, if any, Royals representation on these lists for the second year in a row. Industry consensus is that the Royals farm system is the worst (or second-worst) in the game.

Even though they are throwing around the contract extension lucre, the Royals can’t survive by continually dipping their toes in the free agent market. They have to draft smartly. They have to develop. They have to hit on draft picks and international signings. If they can’t get that part right, this extension isn’t going to do anything but frustrate.

It would be great if we could say with confidence that the Royals were going to be a factor in the Central this season. They’ve done some serious work to improve the team in the free agent market, but they fell so far behind over the last several seasons and have so much ground to make up, that it’s probably going to be another year or two beyond 2024 before the franchise is back in contention. What this extension has done is push the button to start the timer. Sherman and Picollo have made a statement of intent with this extension. Now they have to back up that intent not only with future free agent signings but with the scouting and analytic infrastructure that will help them draft and develop better.

To that point, the Royals have hired scouts and staff this winter that should help going forward. There’s never a guarantee in sports, but the process is one that we can finally get behind. The Witt extension will get all the ink, but don’t sleep on what the team has done behind the scenes this winter.

Top five Royals shortstops by fWAR:

Freddie Patek - 17.0
Alcides Escobar - 11.4
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8.0
UL Washington - 7.6
Nicky Lopez - 7.4

The way he’s going, Witt could be the best shortstop in franchise history by 2025.

You undoubtedly recall the young fan who went viral last summer when Witt hit that walkoff grand slam I posted above. Of course, Sarah Langs remembers and posted about it once the Witt deal was announced.

Her dad, Ryan, is a subscriber. It turns out that like Bobby Witt, she too had a very, very good day.

That’s a great way to wrap a very lengthy (and celebratory) edition of this newsletter. I’m going to steal a line from Sarah here…Baseball—and softball—is the best.