Whiplash

Witt clubs two home runs to give the Royals the lead but his costly error sinks the Royals in the series opener at Cleveland.

There’s no getting around this, so I’ll just come out and say it:

This was the worst loss of the year for the Royals.

Had this been your garden variety 8-5 defeat where the Guardians raced out to a lead and then the teams traded runs in the later innings or something along those lines, I certainly wouldn’t hang the “worst loss of the year” sobriquet around it. Circumstances matter and it’s the manner that the Royals went down in defeat on Tuesday—because after three and a half innings everything was going their way. There’s probably a lesson for me in that last statement. I have to cop to formulating ledes for this post after Bobby Witt Jr. blasted his second home run of the night. I knew there was still plenty of game left and nothing was settled. Couldn’t help it. Euphoria is a helluva drug. Running out to a big lead with one of your aces on the mound tends to make one a believer that the outcome is all but assured.

Bah.

There are nine innings to play. Twenty-seven outs to record. Anything and everything can happen in that time. While Tuesday’s loss was especially brutal, this is not the pressing of the panic button. There is plenty of season left. It’s early June for crying out loud. Thankfully. There are still 12 games to come against these Guardians. One 8-5 defeat isn’t the end of the season. It’s a blip. But blips can be painful, too.

Let’s begin at the end.

Seth Lugo had thrown 92 pitches through six innings of work, allowing three runs on four hits while striking out five. There was a rough patch in the fourth where the Guardians top of the order pushed through for the three runs, two of them coming on a Josh Naylor home run. Lugo encountered a spot in the fifth when a single, walk and a hit batter loaded the bases. He knuckled down and made short order of Andrés Jiménez and José Ramírez, striking out both on pitches way out of the zone. It’s moments like that that turn you into a true believer. Lugo needed a strikeout to keep the Royals ahead. He got two.

Despite those high-stress innings, I have zero issue with Matt Quatraro sending his starter back out for the seventh. Lugo was facing the bottom third of the order at that point, a section he had carved up in the third but caused the minor heartburn in the fifth. I think he was in to face the first two batters before he would give way to a lefty out of the pen to face left-handed hitting Daniel Schneemann, followed by lefty Stephen Kwan if anyone reached base. Plus, we know far too much about the Royals bullpen. Keep them out of the game for as long as possible when holding on to a two-run lead. Especially against a division rival like Cleveland and especially with someone like Lugo on the mound.

Right process, in my opinion. Suboptimal result.

After Will Brennan led off with a single, Tyler Freeman golfed a 0-1 curveball over the fence in left. This is one of those “tip your cap” pitch charts.

It’s not often Lugo is going to get beat on his curve. And it’s not often he’s going to get beat on his curveball if he’s locating it there. It’s a pitch designed for a swing and a miss or a spike into the ground that goes foul because the batter is in front. You have to give credit to Freeman. (Begrudgingly so, because this isn’t a damn Guardians newsletter.)

That ended Lugo’s night. Quatraro summoned lefty Sam Long from the bullpen to face those two aforementioned lefties—plus Jiménez who also hits from the left side. Again, good process that mostly works as Long sets down two of the three, allowing just a single to Schneemann.

The only problem is that brings up Ramírez. If there’s a more dangerous hitter in the game than Ramírez, I don’t want to know about it. The dude is frighteningly good. Long did a nice job, getting him to offer at a couple of curves—one of which was out of the zone—while jumping ahead 1-2. From there though, Long spiked a couple of splitters looking for Ramírez to fish. Except Ramírez, who owns an 11 percent strikeout rate, doesn’t fish.

After throwing those splitters low, I don’t have an issue coming back with a four-seamer. I would’ve liked it elevated though to try to get that chase in the upper part of the zone. Salvador Perez set up low and on the outer half.

That’s not a bad location for Salvy to set his target with, but with Ramírez hitting from the right side of the plate, I’d still prefer an elevated pitch to either get that elusive swing and miss or weak contact.

Long yanked the pitch and missed badly. Ball four and the inning continued.

At this point, Long had thrown 23 pitches and Quatraro opted for another lefty out of the pen in Angel Zerpa to face the dangerous lefty Josh Naylor. The plan of attack here was clearly to pitch Naylor away, but Zerpa, after getting a called first strike on the edge missed with his next four pitches.

The bases are now loaded and the stage is set for the pivotal play of the game.

Zerpa gets ahead of David Fry 0-2. After a foul, the next pitch is a nicely located sinker off the edge of the plate. Fry can only chop it to short. Then, this happened.

Ugh.

Double ugh.

It’s just a brain freeze from Witt. A brief lapse. Temporary madness. At the worst possible moment, it ultimately cost his team the game. All he had to do was plant and throw to first to get the final out of the inning and the game moves on to the eighth inning all knotted up at five. Instead, he decides to try for the solo force at second. I totally understand what Witt was thinking in that situation. The grounder takes Witt toward the bag. He believes he can certainly beat Naylor to the base. What Witt forgets is that with the bases loaded, Pasquantino wasn’t holding Naylor at first so he built something of an extended lead off the bag. And then a solid secondary lead.

Witt may possess elite speed, but he’s going to lose a race where his opponent has that kind of head start. Although going back and watching that play on repeat (the things I do for this newsletter), I can’t help but think that if Witt had just continued to accelerate to the bag, he would’ve beaten Naylor.

By the time Witt realizes he may not get to the bag first, he still has an opportunity to make the throw to first to get Fry, but his momentum isn’t helpful—he’s throwing from an open angle—and he can’t uncork a throw on target. All three runs score on the error. The half-inning opened with the Royals holding a two-run lead. It ended with them facing a three-run deficit.

Think back to the end of the 2022 season, Witt’s rookie year. General manager J.J. Picollo stressed at the time the Royals still believed in Witt, who struggled in his debut season, but that the game seemed to speed up on him at times. That’s what this play looked like—the moment just got out of hand. It’s uncharacteristic for Witt because he’s done such a great job slowing things down over the last season and two months. Terrible timing, but it’s a mental error more than anything. One that I would be he won’t be making again.

So if you’re looking for Witt slander after that miscue, you’ll have to keep searching. You won’t find it here. Mental errors happen. His happened at the absolute worst time. The absolute. But to drag Witt would be shortsighted because we cannot forget that the Royals wouldn’t have even been in a position to win had it not been for the power show he put on earlier in the evening.

Triston McKenzie’s 12-to-6 curve was working. Just a complete dipsy-doo of a pitch. It comes out of that over-the-top arm slot and just tumbles. As I was watching the early innings, I thought that the Royals batters should either pick up the spin of the curve and decide not to swing at all (easier said than done, plus my couch is an incredibly comfortable spot from which I can dispense this kind of hitting wisdom), or they should resolve to wait for the pitch to leave McKenzie’s hand at an increased elevation and wait for that hanger to take a rip.

I’m not saying Witt and I are on the same wavelength, but he was clearly waiting for that hanger. He did not miss.

The baseball traveled 434 feet. Impressive.

Witt was up again an inning later. This time he got an elevated fastball. Different pitch. Same result.

That one flew 454 feet. Impressive, plus 20 feet.

That’s two at bats, two home runs and four runs driven in. Here’s Witt’s night in a nutshell at the plate (ignoring his two strikeouts).

Yeah…it’s not hyperbole to proclaim that the Royals wouldn’t have been in a position to win without Witt. There are times when he can single-handedly carry this ballclub. He almost did it on Tuesday. One minute you’re the hero. The next you’re the goat.

A brutal loss, but I’ll always bank on Witt being the hero more often than not.

A moment of appreciation for Maikel Garcia. He singled just ahead of Witt’s home run in the third and served notice of his intent by swiping second. With two outs in the fourth, he rode a four-seamer on the outer half to right field for another single. He also drew a walk and is now hitting .267/.316/.398 with a wRC+ of 100.

So it’s a tough loss. As I said in the open, the worst loss of the season. Witt is going to win plenty of games for this team with his power, speed and defense. His instincts betrayed him on Tuesday. It’s a bad way to start what is a brutal stretch of 13 games against teams in first place in their respective divisions. But it’s just one game. If we’ve learned anything about these 2024 Royals, it’s that their collective memory is short. It will need to be for them to get past this. This is a gut check. We’re going to learn a lot about this team in the next two weeks.

Central Issues

Twins 1, Yankees 5

I’ve been so preoccupied with the difficult schedule ahead of the Royals, I totally slept on the fact that the Twins are visiting Yankee Stadium this week. Hahahahah. We know what happens when these two teams meet. Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton homered. Aaron Judge hit a two-run double. Royce Lewis, fresh off the disabled list, homered in his return. The Twins have played the Yankees four times so far this season. They have scored a total of two runs. They have lost all four.

Tigers 3, Rangers 1

Zack McKinstry hit a two-run homer (he also tripled) and Riley Greene blasted a solo shot which was more than enough for Jack Flaherty and the Detroit bullpen. Flaherty went five innings, allowing just two hits while striking out four. He left after just 60 pitches due to back tightness.

White Sox 5, Cubs 6

The Sox jumped out to a 5-0 lead, then the rains came and the Cubs tied it on the back of a pair of two-run home runs in the sixth. The Hapless White Sox, to their credit, didn’t fold. At least quickly. They actually regained the lead an inning later on a Luis Robert Jr. home run. But Ian Happ hit a two-run double in the eighth to give the Cubs the lead for good. Duke Ellis made his major league debut for the Sox as a pinch runner in the ninth. He stole second and then was picked off. Welcome to the South Side, kid. You’ll fit right in.