Velázquez powers the Royals to victory

Starter Michael Wacha dominated and the bullpen held the Mariners down. The big hit came from an unlikely—at least for this season—source.

Boy, did Nelson Velázquez need that.

The Royals designated hitter had gone since April 4 without a home run, a span of 101 at bats. He had struck out in his previous two at bats against Mariners starter Logan Gilbert, missing on a 97 MPH four-seamer down the chute in the second and then fishing on an 81 MPH splitter well out of the zone in the fifth. As so often happens in this game, after looking totally helpless in those earlier plate appearances, Velázquez strode to the plate in the top of the seventh in the most important situation in the game.

This time, he did not disappoint. A three-run bomb gave the Royals the lead. They tacked on an insurance run an inning later and held on for a 4-2 victory to even the series in Seattle.

After spitting on a slider down and out of the zone, Velázquez was ready for another slider. This one was inside and just about knee-high. He whipped his bat through the zone and met the baseball with malice.

It was quite a turn of events for both the Royals and Velázquez. For six innings the entire Royals lineup resembled Velázquez’s season to this point…a handful of empty singles and not much production. Gilbert was supremely in charge through the first half of the game with a wicked four-seamer complemented by a slider he was spinning for strikes along with a splitter that was pure filth. He faced the minimum through five innings, scattering a couple of singles and a walk. Two runners were erased on a double play. The other was an ill-advised attempt by Hunter Renfroe to stretch said single into a double.

The seventh inning rally was barely that. Bobby Witt Jr. led off with a walk, an eight-pitch plate appearance where he fought off an array of secondary pitches. Vinnie Pasquantino was next and hit a grounder to second, but second baseman Josh Rojas couldn’t field the ball cleanly. It was a tailor-made double play ball and it would’ve been the third time the Mariners turned two behind Gilbert. Instead, the only play was at first.

Once Salvador Perez flashed his new-found plate discipline to lay off three consecutive pitches in the dirt, the Mariners elected to not to throw the fourth pitch, putting Perez on via the intentional walk to set the double play opportunity up once again. After Michael Massey struck out, it brought Velázquez to the plate.

When Velázquez made contact, it was obvious the ball was not coming back. And it left in a hurry.

There are a ton of red flags in Velázquez’s batted ball profile this year. He’s hitting 47 percent of the balls he puts into play on the ground. That’s an absurd rate for someone with his kind of power. His flyball rate, which was 42 percent last year according to Statcast, is down to 28 percent this year. Velázquez’s Hard Hit Rate is down from 49 percent last year to its current 36 percent. He’s lost about four MPH off his average exit velocity from last season. His Barrel Rate has nosedived from 21 percent in 2023 to just five percent this season. He entered play on Tuesday slugging just .339 with an 80 wRC+.

After really slumping from April 14 to May 10 where he hit .107/.206/.179 in 63 plate appearances, Velázquez started showing signs of life in the last few games. He collected hits in each of his last four starts, but the power still wasn’t showing up. It did against Gilbert in the seventh. Maybe those singles were about Velázquez getting into a rhythm and the home run will open the floodgates to his power. We know it’s there. We saw it last season. It’s disappearance in the early going in 2024 is one of the year’s biggest mysteries, and disappointments.

I’m a sucker for swings like this.

Velázquez said he was sitting slider and got one. Still, not a terrible location on the inside corner. The home run was the product of quick hands and a perfect bat path to bring the barrel to that location. Nice and easy.

With a swing that was clocked at 77 MPH, the baseball was squared up and is technically considered a Blast by Statcast. Veláquez has connected on a Blast in just around seven percent of his swings this season. The league average is just under 11 percent. The Royals desperately need Velázquez to come alive to lengthen their lineup. If this moment is his bat waking up from this early season slumber…look out.

This didn’t have any kind of impact on Tuesday’s game, but I wanted to take a moment to highlight Perez’s plate appearance against Gilbert in the fourth inning.

Gilbert started with a curve on the outer edge that the captain fouled off. He followed with another curve well off the plate to push the count to 1-1. The third pitch was a splitter down and away and in the zone that Perez offered at and missed. With the advantage in the count, Gilbert went splitter again, this one down and out of the zone that Perez watched for ball two.

Perez swung at a 2-2 curve that was out of the zone, but got lumber on it and fouled it off. That’s a tough pitch with quite a bit of vertical break. It’s up and in the zone looking like a tasty pitch before it dives down and out of the zone. After that, another curve but this one started higher and was easier to track to take for a ball. The final pitch was a slider in the dirt. Ball four. It was just a quality plate appearance.

Perez has now drawn 13 walks on the season. He drew 19 all of last year.

I thought starter Michael Wacha looked as sharp on Tuesday as he had all season with the Royals. He jumped ahead on the four-seamer or sinker, or used those pitches to dot the zone if he fell behind. From there, it was all about his changeup and cutter. Between those two, he got 10 whiffs on 24 swings.

Going by Game Score, this was his second-best start of his tenure in Kansas City. He went six innings, allowing three hits while striking out seven. One of those hits was a blast off the bat of Luke Raley who seems intent on single-handedly torturing the Royals. It was a legit home run, but it was just one of three hard-hit balls all night against Wacha. He was in absolute command all evening.

From there, it was the trusted tandem of John Schrieber and James McArthur. Schrieber did his job until exiting after taking a comebacker off his side with two outs in the eighth. McArthur entered and recorded the four out save. His only blemish was a solo home run from Mitch Haniger with one out in the ninth. I’m starting to think McArthur has a bit of a dinger problem. He’s allowed the ball to leave the yard in four of his five appearances this month. The first two…yeah, we’re not going to talk about those. The most recent two have come when he’s had the luxury of pitching with a larger lead. Something to watch going forward. Matt Quatraro isn’t shy about rotating guys in and out of roles.

Central Issues

Nationals 6, White Sox 3
White Sox 4, Nationals 0

Chicago split their doubleheader with Washington. The Nats collected 10 hits in the opener—all singles—and pushed across three runs in the eighth to break a 3-all tie. Andrew Vaughn provided all the offense in the nightcap, clubbing two home runs. Erick Fedde twirled seven innings of three-hit ball.

Guardians 7, Rangers 4

Cleveland broke the game open, scoring six runs in the second inning, chasing Rangers starter Jack Leiter, the big blow coming on a three-run dinger from Josh Naylor. HIs brother, Josh, added a two-run double. The Rangers chipped away, hitting three solo home runs, but that was all they could muster, dropping their second in a row to Cleveland at home.

Marlins 1, Tigers 0 - 10 innings

I enjoy these kinds of games. Two starters, throwing up zeros. The bullpens coming into the games late. Someone is going to break and the tension, even in a game featuring a team like Miami, is high. Reese Olson went eight innings allowing three hits for the Tigers and his Marlins counterpart, Ryan Weathers, matched him. Then you get to extra innings and a bizarre rule comes into play putting a free runner on second base. Anyway, Josh Bell singled to lead off the 10th for the Marlins. The Tigers couldn’t bring their Manfred Man home. Ballgame. Drive home safely.

Yankees 5, Twins 1

Death, taxes and the Twins losing to the Yankees. Yeah, I know the Twins finally got over New York last year, taking four of seven and winning the season series for the first time in eons, but it’s still fun. Minnesota took an early lead via a Ryan Jeffers leadoff home run against Carlos Rodón, but the lefty settled down after the opening frame and finished with six strikeouts in six innings. Bat speed darling Giancarlo Stanton clubbed his third home run of the season.