The stretch run begins now
The Royals survived the toughest part of their 2024 schedule. Now it's time to shift the focus to finishing the season and qualifying for October.
The Royals closed out this stretch of 20 games that will define their 2024 season with an extra-inning 4-3 loss to the New York Yankees. A tough loss, for sure. One that finalizes their record over these 20 games at 9-11. Damn. So close to .500.
Would you believe the Royals have come out of this in better shape than when they started this brutal run of games?
On August 23, the Royals stood at 71-56 on the season. A .559 winning percentage. They were tied for the fourth-best record in the AL with the Twins and as such, they were tied in the race for the second Wild Card. Although with the convoluted tiebreaker rules, they would have the sixth, and final, spot. They were secure in their postseason spot by four games. Their odds to make the postseason were at 76 percent according to FanGraphs.
On September 12, the Royals’ record is now 80-67. That’s a .544 winning percentage. They have the fourth-best record in the AL. They are 1.5 games ahead of the Twins for the second wild card. They are secure in their postseason spot by 4.5 games. Their postseason odds at FanGraphs currently stand at 93 percent.
While a 9-11 record can never be considered a rousing success, they have emerged from this portion of their schedule unscathed. They stumbled—a seven-game losing streak is never good—yet they did not fall. In fact, they found their footing and quickly resumed their familiar stride.
It’s difficult to believe…just 15 games are remaining in the 2024 season. Where does the summer go?
With so few games still in play, the entire range of outcomes still exists for the Royals. While the most likely outcome is qualifying for the postseason as the fifth or sixth seed, there remains an outside possibility they can still leapfrog the Guardians for the AL Central. With just three teams in front of them in the win column, if they catch insane fire, it’s not outside the realm of possibility they could take one of the top two seeds. Note: I did not say that was likely…It’s possible. On the flip side, a late-season collapse could still spell doom. Let’s not entertain those kind of dark thoughts.
For today’s AL Playoff Odds graph, I highlighted the five teams battling for the final two places in the tournament. I figure Houston is in as the champions of the West. Baltimore and New York will qualify as well. That leaves the Royals and Twins along with the Tigers, Red Sox and Mariners.
The odds would tell you this is done and dusted. The Royals and Twins are clear front-runners for the last two spots in the tournament. The remaining teams are clustered with around 10 percent.
Still…nothing is settled at this point. With that in mind, I thought I’d look ahead at the schedules of the teams battling for playoff spots in the American League.
Royals
3 at Pittsburgh
3 vs Detroit
3 vs San Francisco
3 at Washington
3 at Atlanta
Circle that series against the Tigers next week. That could go a long way to deciding Detroit’s suddenly resurgent postseason aspirations. The Royals finally catch a break in the schedule, but those three games in Atlanta to end the season could be critical to both clubs.
Guardians
4 vs Tampa
4 vs Minnesota
3 at St. Louis
2 vs Cincinnati
3 vs Houston
After an abysmal August where Cleveland went 12-17, they seem to be back on track with seven wins from 10 games in September. Of course, a sweep of the White Sox is in that bunch. Again, circle that series against the Twins to open next week.
Twins
3 vs Cincinnati
4 at Cleveland
3 at Boston
3 vs Miami
3 vs Baltimore
This looks like a difficult schedule down the stretch for a team that’s been scuffling. The Twins are just 23-26 since the All-Star break and are 5-6 in September. They were able to get somewhat right against the Angels this week after getting swept in Kansas City.
Tigers
1 vs Colorado
3 vs Baltimore
3 at Kansas City
3 at Baltimore
3 vs Tampa
3 vs White Sox
After dropping three of four to the Royals in early August, the Tigers stood at seven games under .500. A week before they, they traded one of their best starting pitchers. Since then, they’ve won 21 out of 32 games, the best record in the American League over that stretch. Yes, the White Sox have featured in several of those wins. So have the Angels. They have a mini gauntlet of their own with nine in a row against the Orioles and the Royals.
Red Sox
4 at Yankees
3 at Rays
3 vs Twins
3 at Toronto
3 vs Rays
Boston is the definition of mid. They’re two games over .500. They have a +3 run differential on the season. They just fail to impress. Yet they’ve been hanging around the fringes of the Wild Card spot all summer. I don’t see them as dangerous at all, but if they split with the Yankees and win their series in Tampa, that could set up an interesting confrontation with the Twins.
Mariners
4 vs Texas
3 vs Yankees
3 at Texas
3 at Houston
3 at Oakland
On June 18 the Mariners were 13 games over .500 and held a 10-game lead in the AL West. Since then…pain. They can’t hit. They fired their manager. They just can’t figure out a way to get to October.
Yankees
4 vs Boston
3 at Seattle
3 at Oakland
3 vs Baltimore
3 vs Pittsburgh
Since the start of August, the Yankees haven’t won more than three games in a row. They also haven’t lost more than three games in a row. Yeah, the top part of their batting order is properly frightening, but that’s about it.
Orioles
3 at Detroit
3 vs San Francisco
3 vs Detroit
3 at Yankees
3 at Twins
With the Tigers on the upswing, this means Baltimore will play four of their final five series against teams with postseason aspirations. Their last two are against teams currently in the tournament. I’d say that gives them the hardest schedule down the stretch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the Wild Card portion of the postseason.
The odds are such that it feels foolish to make any kind of predictions or projections. My hope is that one of the three teams on the outside can surge to make it somewhat worth following. (At the expense of the Twins, naturally.) Otherwise, the only thing interesting about qualifying to Rob Manfred’s watered-down postseason is seeding position. Where’s the fun in that?
Nevertheless, the Royals remain in an extremely favorable position to make the postseason for the first time since 2015. Now, that’s going to be fun to track down these last two and a half weeks.
Maybe i am a little too confident in their playoff chances, but have started watching the biggest season turnaround numbers. Decent chance my math is wrong, but think with 8 more wins they will have the 3rd largest turnaround in mlb history. 7 more wins and they tie with the much ballyhooed '22 Orioles, the '08 Rays, and the '93 Giants.
Think this would give Quatraro the edge on manager of the year. Vogt as MOY wouldn't be a miscarriage of justice, but the playbook Francona left and the Guardians had in place was much more stable than the mess Q stepped into.
What interests me is how the Royals went 9-11 against some of the best competition in baseball and no one who is ACTUALLY in the AL playoff picture (I do not buy the Mariners, Tigers, or Red Sox) was able to really separate. Thanks to the link you gave me, I was able to determine that the Yankees and Orioles went .500 over the same stretch, the Guardians went 11-8 (including 3 wins over the White Sox) and the Astros went 8-11 (including 4 wins over the reeling Royals)
I'm starting to feel a lot better about KC's chances once they make it into the postseason.