I think they are open to trading Singer, but they will have to pick up one or maybe two starters to make that happen. The roles of Bubic and Lynch IV were briefly mentioned. There will be an opportunity for both to make their case for the rotation. That could have an impact on Singer’s future as well.
I would expect Stratton back for sure on his player option. There’s a chance, depending on the market that Renfroe could take the buyout. But it’s a slim chance.
Picollo talked about Seitzer. Said he’s a friend and a good hitting coach, but they don’t have an opening. Again, with the staff they’ve built, it would have to be about fit.
JJ is by far my favorite GM of my Royals fandom which really started in about '94. Looking like the best decision Sherman has made, and it was a difficult one. Lots of people wanted a clean house.
Melendez has kind of a funky stance and swing. Idk how close he is to a total rebuild, but he should think about it. I wouldn't be shocked to see him have a JD Martinez or Jose Bautista type breakout. A big leg kick might help him keep his hip in.
Garcia could be useful as a utility player, back up, and pinch runner. I don't see much more, but I do wonder what happened the first week of 2024 season. Maybe that is still in there somewhere.
That first week was wild for Garcia, wasn’t it? I was in.
I remember making the argument at the time that Picollo wouldn’t be a Dayton clone. I’m glad Sherman saw the potential there.
I think Melendez needs to take a lot of time this winter rebuilding the swing. Picollo mentioned that he used to be better against LHP. That makes me think they’re going to be doing some heavy work to keep him centered in the box. We’ll see. They really think highly of him.
Craig—have to say that I completely agree with your takes of JJ’s assessments. The most important thing the Royals need to realize is that almost all of their position players are exactly who they have been and are very unlikely to get better (except perhaps Bobby—I think we’d be foolish to underestimate him).
Thanks, Murray. I can never remember what Dayton used to say about how long it takes to evaluate young players because that scale always seemed to slide. 1,000 PAs? 1,500? More? There’s mounting evidence around guys like Melendez and Garcia. I do think they can improve, but I think expectations at this point are really kind of low. As they should be.
Hot damn I love listening to interviews with Picollo and Quatraro. They come across as reasonable, reasonably honest guys. At this point, when Picollo has said he's going to do things he's done them. And Q understands who he is and what his role in all of this is. It's a huge breath of fresh air after the dishonesty from GMDM and the nonsense from Matheny and Eldred.
Completely agree. These last two seasons have been unbelievably refreshing. Credit to Sherman for making the big initial move and then credit to Picollo for having a vision that’s his own.
Find a professional hitter. I really liked the type of AB Gurriel brought to the team. I would like that hitter to have the following qualities in descending order - professional AB, run bases well, OBP, contact hitter, slugging percentage. I honestly don't know who that is. I think if we add a middle of the order bat our lead off hitter may be Bobby next season. I don't know how he feels about hitting in that spot but he is probably our best in house answer.
Resign Michael Wacha
Trade Brady Singer - his refusal to use more than 2 pitches is infuriating and I think it is time to get the best return possible (position player if we can) and move on.
I love Maikel Garcia but I believe he has more value to a team as their every day SS than as our most of the time 3B. I think he needs to be traded this off season.
I also believe now may be the best time to trade Lynch or Bubic. They still have starting upside and control. I think a team with payroll considerations would be willing to go for at least one of them. I'm a believer in selling high and they both had solid/good seasons.
I also would love to see Seitzer back as a roving hitting instructor.
They mentioned the PAs that Gurriel brought when he joined the team. Totally agree.
I’m not sure on Bobby at leadoff. Quatraro mentioned this before but the best hitter is generally hitting second these days. He’s thrived there and leadoff is a different approach and mindset. I’d leave him where he’s had success.
And I totally agree with you on Singer. And I would not be surprised if they shopped Lynch and Bubic. Those three bring quite a bit of value in their own way. Could be a good opportunity to pick up a player or two with some upside.
I agree on Bobby. If it is too much to ask, then leave him hitting 2nd.
I would love to see what Bubic/Lynch/Singer could bring back in potential trades.
As long as Garcia is on the roster we don't need a SS back up. He can be it. It makes the INF utility player in my roster above a little more flexible. I righty with some pop like DeJong (not advocating for that exact player but he did fit nicely) would be a good fit.
A sour end to the season, of course, but I assume the playoff nerves (all the walks issued, Witt & Pasquantino slumping, etc.) won't be as intense next time.
Speaking of "next time," Witt is obviously the best player the Royals have had since Brett, but overall the core of this lineup is much weaker than the core lineup that contended 2013-2016. It's basically Witt, Pasquantino, Massey (maybe), and Perez vs. Cain, Gordon, Moustakas, Hosmer, and Perez.. Bullpen is weaker, too, but starting pitching stronger. In short, are we really sure this season wasn't a fluke?
I agree with your assessment of their strengths and weaknesses, but I think it’s difficult to ride luck into a successful 162 games. The starting pitching really carried them and the nucleus of Witt/Pasquantino/Perez provided enough run support generally.
I think the question is: Is it sustainable? I don’t think it is in its current form. You have to expect the rotation to stay healthy and provide the same kind of production across the board. I believe in Ragans. Lugo? A little less so. And on down the line.
This offseason is about rebuilding in a way. They have to add a starter or two while finding that leadoff hitter and corner outfielder. But a really strong core remains intact. That’s a good starting point.
Honestly, I don't know what to make of the season. Toss out the 12-1 record against the White Sox and they are right around .500. They seemed consistently to win only one of three games in series against good teams (Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, et al.), but they pounded the bad teams. Postseason: Sweep the Orioles and be competitive in the series against the Yankees, who pounded them in the regular season, which is the sign of a good team. Really, I think they could regress and win 72 games or I think they could shore up a couple of holes and win 92 games. I have no idea if the trajectory is on the upswing, as I felt in 2013 with that roster.
Having the White Sox in the division certainly didn’t hurt, but I think the fact they were able to avoid a long losing streak until Vinnie went down at the end of August points to them not being a fluke. Were they as good as the top teams in the league? No. But as you said, they could stand up to them.
I agree with you on the trajectory. You could see it in ‘13. That’s why this winter will be a real test for Picollo and the rest of the front office. They’re going to have to fill some gaps and anticipate some regression. They could stumble to .500 next season for sure, but I do think they’ll be competitive. Generally speaking.
Thanks for this, Craig. There is a lot of talk in the comments about trading pitching...Singer, Lynch, Bubic. I'm always open to the right deal that helps the club, but I want to say the opposite; let's stock up on pitching. At different times this year, the weak spots were the bullpen and offense. Defense was pretty consistent, but the starting pitching was amazing. We actually won games the offense was taking off, just because of quality starting pitching. Let's say the whole rotation comes back intact, as we re-sign Wacha: joining him are Ragans, Lugo, Singer and Marsh (or replacement). Do we really expect to get 150+ starts out of five guys again? I bet Wacha is the only one ever to have started 30 before. We had almost no IL stints for the rotation -- is that likely again? I would love to go with those five again, but we better have some depth and back up plans.
I do think the team will be looking to stock up on pitching, even if they deal away some of their current in-house options. I would bet they’re active on the market for a couple of swingman types who can bounce between the rotation and the bullpen. A Lorenzen kind of pitcher.
It’s too bad this team couldn’t get its offense going in September and October. This rotation was built to carry the team.
I think he fits the profile the Royals are looking for, but he will be 29 next year and has never played any position other than short so that might be a sticking point.
I think he and Bregman will be the most in-demand infielders this winter on the free agent market. I’m pretty bad at estimating these things anymore. Four years? $80ish million?
I think Garcia and MJ are definitely worth keeping around for their ceilings. Confident Merv will improve his hitting now that he can focus more on that in offseason vs learning a new position. Garcia is never going to slug, but I think he will figure out how to get on base and then greenlight from there. If he can keep his head, he is who we will want at 3rd. If they can get a little more out of these 2 and Massey can stay relatively healthy, what a solid core they will have for the next few years! The idea of nurturing them with some vet bats platooning brings valid skepticism, but JJ and Q & Co can make it work.
I am afraid the team will regress next year if they can't sign a proven, healthy OF slugger. The pitching can only take you so far.. Please JJ, find a true offensive weapon for right field. Renfroe isn't getting any younger, and just didn't have the pop resurgence hoped for. He is a major leaguer, but an average bat with not great defense that takes a while to get going just isnt going to help this club. I actually think they may eat the contract if they find some options there.
(wow postseason isnt over yet and i already have "ifs" and a player to take my ire out on)
I’m fine giving Melendez and Garcia another year. And I agree with you in that they definitely need a corner OF who can slot into the middle of that lineup. The leadoff guy would be at the top of my list as well. Priority 1 and 1A.
Don’t be so fast to direct your ire at Renfroe. I’m sure there will be a Frazier-type player who joins the club. :)
just concerned the OF will be a cross fingers guy vs sure thing, though i guess there is no such thing. same concern with leadoff dude from what i have scanned in FA
ha i put renfroe in my doghouse early and weirdly like hampson. Frazier had a few clutch late/post season hits, so renfroes $ will continue to get my stinkeye.
(fwiw i think Renfroe is a decent vet, but someone has to take the gratuitous blame; just as someone needs to be the villain)
Cant wait to root against Chisolm and the yanks next year, and I have never rooted so hard for the Cleve
* Trade Singer. Please. He is not a good big-game pitcher. Period. The end.
* Wacha. Should we start a GoFundMe?
* MJ. Please just get him to stay more still in the box. He always seems to be off-balance on contact.
* Is the roster really stuck with Renfroe & Stratton b/c of their player options? Say it ain't so.
* Isbel & Garcia are SO frustrating. They don't seem to have a plan. Ever. Get 2 strikes, they're done.
* If a good leadoff can't be found, I would suggest Massey as a default, at least against righties.
* Should Seitzer be considered?
* No Pham no mo. He chases nearly as much as Salvy. Case closed.
* You are no idiot, Mr. B., and there is no need for your pitchfork. This organization is done with stupid.
Yes to Seitzer.
I think they are open to trading Singer, but they will have to pick up one or maybe two starters to make that happen. The roles of Bubic and Lynch IV were briefly mentioned. There will be an opportunity for both to make their case for the rotation. That could have an impact on Singer’s future as well.
I would expect Stratton back for sure on his player option. There’s a chance, depending on the market that Renfroe could take the buyout. But it’s a slim chance.
Picollo talked about Seitzer. Said he’s a friend and a good hitting coach, but they don’t have an opening. Again, with the staff they’ve built, it would have to be about fit.
JJ is by far my favorite GM of my Royals fandom which really started in about '94. Looking like the best decision Sherman has made, and it was a difficult one. Lots of people wanted a clean house.
Melendez has kind of a funky stance and swing. Idk how close he is to a total rebuild, but he should think about it. I wouldn't be shocked to see him have a JD Martinez or Jose Bautista type breakout. A big leg kick might help him keep his hip in.
Garcia could be useful as a utility player, back up, and pinch runner. I don't see much more, but I do wonder what happened the first week of 2024 season. Maybe that is still in there somewhere.
That first week was wild for Garcia, wasn’t it? I was in.
I remember making the argument at the time that Picollo wouldn’t be a Dayton clone. I’m glad Sherman saw the potential there.
I think Melendez needs to take a lot of time this winter rebuilding the swing. Picollo mentioned that he used to be better against LHP. That makes me think they’re going to be doing some heavy work to keep him centered in the box. We’ll see. They really think highly of him.
Craig—have to say that I completely agree with your takes of JJ’s assessments. The most important thing the Royals need to realize is that almost all of their position players are exactly who they have been and are very unlikely to get better (except perhaps Bobby—I think we’d be foolish to underestimate him).
Thanks, Murray. I can never remember what Dayton used to say about how long it takes to evaluate young players because that scale always seemed to slide. 1,000 PAs? 1,500? More? There’s mounting evidence around guys like Melendez and Garcia. I do think they can improve, but I think expectations at this point are really kind of low. As they should be.
Hot damn I love listening to interviews with Picollo and Quatraro. They come across as reasonable, reasonably honest guys. At this point, when Picollo has said he's going to do things he's done them. And Q understands who he is and what his role in all of this is. It's a huge breath of fresh air after the dishonesty from GMDM and the nonsense from Matheny and Eldred.
Completely agree. These last two seasons have been unbelievably refreshing. Credit to Sherman for making the big initial move and then credit to Picollo for having a vision that’s his own.
Here are my hopes for the offseason.
Find a professional hitter. I really liked the type of AB Gurriel brought to the team. I would like that hitter to have the following qualities in descending order - professional AB, run bases well, OBP, contact hitter, slugging percentage. I honestly don't know who that is. I think if we add a middle of the order bat our lead off hitter may be Bobby next season. I don't know how he feels about hitting in that spot but he is probably our best in house answer.
Resign Michael Wacha
Trade Brady Singer - his refusal to use more than 2 pitches is infuriating and I think it is time to get the best return possible (position player if we can) and move on.
I love Maikel Garcia but I believe he has more value to a team as their every day SS than as our most of the time 3B. I think he needs to be traded this off season.
I also believe now may be the best time to trade Lynch or Bubic. They still have starting upside and control. I think a team with payroll considerations would be willing to go for at least one of them. I'm a believer in selling high and they both had solid/good seasons.
I also would love to see Seitzer back as a roving hitting instructor.
If I had to set a lineup today it would be:
1 - SS Witt - R
2 - DH - free agent
3 - 1B Vinny - L
4 - C Salvy - R
5 - 2B Massey - L
6 - RF - Renfroe - R
7 - OF - free agent
8 - 3B free agent or Garcia - R
9 - CF Isbel - L
Bench - Melendez, Fermin, Blanco, INF utility
They mentioned the PAs that Gurriel brought when he joined the team. Totally agree.
I’m not sure on Bobby at leadoff. Quatraro mentioned this before but the best hitter is generally hitting second these days. He’s thrived there and leadoff is a different approach and mindset. I’d leave him where he’s had success.
And I totally agree with you on Singer. And I would not be surprised if they shopped Lynch and Bubic. Those three bring quite a bit of value in their own way. Could be a good opportunity to pick up a player or two with some upside.
I agree on Bobby. If it is too much to ask, then leave him hitting 2nd.
I would love to see what Bubic/Lynch/Singer could bring back in potential trades.
As long as Garcia is on the roster we don't need a SS back up. He can be it. It makes the INF utility player in my roster above a little more flexible. I righty with some pop like DeJong (not advocating for that exact player but he did fit nicely) would be a good fit.
Melendez....with that swing he will never be more than a pure mistake hitter.
He has to revamp the swing. Has to.
A sour end to the season, of course, but I assume the playoff nerves (all the walks issued, Witt & Pasquantino slumping, etc.) won't be as intense next time.
Speaking of "next time," Witt is obviously the best player the Royals have had since Brett, but overall the core of this lineup is much weaker than the core lineup that contended 2013-2016. It's basically Witt, Pasquantino, Massey (maybe), and Perez vs. Cain, Gordon, Moustakas, Hosmer, and Perez.. Bullpen is weaker, too, but starting pitching stronger. In short, are we really sure this season wasn't a fluke?
I agree with your assessment of their strengths and weaknesses, but I think it’s difficult to ride luck into a successful 162 games. The starting pitching really carried them and the nucleus of Witt/Pasquantino/Perez provided enough run support generally.
I think the question is: Is it sustainable? I don’t think it is in its current form. You have to expect the rotation to stay healthy and provide the same kind of production across the board. I believe in Ragans. Lugo? A little less so. And on down the line.
This offseason is about rebuilding in a way. They have to add a starter or two while finding that leadoff hitter and corner outfielder. But a really strong core remains intact. That’s a good starting point.
Honestly, I don't know what to make of the season. Toss out the 12-1 record against the White Sox and they are right around .500. They seemed consistently to win only one of three games in series against good teams (Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, et al.), but they pounded the bad teams. Postseason: Sweep the Orioles and be competitive in the series against the Yankees, who pounded them in the regular season, which is the sign of a good team. Really, I think they could regress and win 72 games or I think they could shore up a couple of holes and win 92 games. I have no idea if the trajectory is on the upswing, as I felt in 2013 with that roster.
Having the White Sox in the division certainly didn’t hurt, but I think the fact they were able to avoid a long losing streak until Vinnie went down at the end of August points to them not being a fluke. Were they as good as the top teams in the league? No. But as you said, they could stand up to them.
I agree with you on the trajectory. You could see it in ‘13. That’s why this winter will be a real test for Picollo and the rest of the front office. They’re going to have to fill some gaps and anticipate some regression. They could stumble to .500 next season for sure, but I do think they’ll be competitive. Generally speaking.
Thanks for this, Craig. There is a lot of talk in the comments about trading pitching...Singer, Lynch, Bubic. I'm always open to the right deal that helps the club, but I want to say the opposite; let's stock up on pitching. At different times this year, the weak spots were the bullpen and offense. Defense was pretty consistent, but the starting pitching was amazing. We actually won games the offense was taking off, just because of quality starting pitching. Let's say the whole rotation comes back intact, as we re-sign Wacha: joining him are Ragans, Lugo, Singer and Marsh (or replacement). Do we really expect to get 150+ starts out of five guys again? I bet Wacha is the only one ever to have started 30 before. We had almost no IL stints for the rotation -- is that likely again? I would love to go with those five again, but we better have some depth and back up plans.
I do think the team will be looking to stock up on pitching, even if they deal away some of their current in-house options. I would bet they’re active on the market for a couple of swingman types who can bounce between the rotation and the bullpen. A Lorenzen kind of pitcher.
It’s too bad this team couldn’t get its offense going in September and October. This rotation was built to carry the team.
What do you think of free agent Willy Adames? If he would be willing to move to third. Any idea what he would cost.
I think he fits the profile the Royals are looking for, but he will be 29 next year and has never played any position other than short so that might be a sticking point.
I think he and Bregman will be the most in-demand infielders this winter on the free agent market. I’m pretty bad at estimating these things anymore. Four years? $80ish million?
I think Garcia and MJ are definitely worth keeping around for their ceilings. Confident Merv will improve his hitting now that he can focus more on that in offseason vs learning a new position. Garcia is never going to slug, but I think he will figure out how to get on base and then greenlight from there. If he can keep his head, he is who we will want at 3rd. If they can get a little more out of these 2 and Massey can stay relatively healthy, what a solid core they will have for the next few years! The idea of nurturing them with some vet bats platooning brings valid skepticism, but JJ and Q & Co can make it work.
I am afraid the team will regress next year if they can't sign a proven, healthy OF slugger. The pitching can only take you so far.. Please JJ, find a true offensive weapon for right field. Renfroe isn't getting any younger, and just didn't have the pop resurgence hoped for. He is a major leaguer, but an average bat with not great defense that takes a while to get going just isnt going to help this club. I actually think they may eat the contract if they find some options there.
(wow postseason isnt over yet and i already have "ifs" and a player to take my ire out on)
I’m fine giving Melendez and Garcia another year. And I agree with you in that they definitely need a corner OF who can slot into the middle of that lineup. The leadoff guy would be at the top of my list as well. Priority 1 and 1A.
Don’t be so fast to direct your ire at Renfroe. I’m sure there will be a Frazier-type player who joins the club. :)
just concerned the OF will be a cross fingers guy vs sure thing, though i guess there is no such thing. same concern with leadoff dude from what i have scanned in FA
ha i put renfroe in my doghouse early and weirdly like hampson. Frazier had a few clutch late/post season hits, so renfroes $ will continue to get my stinkeye.
(fwiw i think Renfroe is a decent vet, but someone has to take the gratuitous blame; just as someone needs to be the villain)
Cant wait to root against Chisolm and the yanks next year, and I have never rooted so hard for the Cleve
Appreciate all the hard work you put into this newsletter during the season and beyond!
Thanks, Dave! That’s kind of you to say.