The resiliant Royals need Game Two

Replay is still wrong, the home plate umpire wasn't that bad, an unlikely Yankee closer and a brief preview of the starting pitchers for Game Two.

When the schedule was released for the American League Divisional Series, the off day between Games One and Two didn’t seem to make a ton of sense. After experiencing five lead changes on Saturday’s Game One, the break on Sunday was not only welcome, it felt necessary.

On the other side of that coin, it’s never fun to sit with a loss like that for 48 hours. Unnecessary. Thankfully, the National League Divisional Series provided plenty of distraction on Sunday.

The Royals and Yankees are back at it on Monday. First pitch for Game Two is scheduled for 6:38.

At this point, the replay of the Jazz Chisholm slide and the Michael Massey tag has been dissected frame by frame so much that it’s become our version of the Zapruder film. Your conspiracy theories may be valid. Someone find me a New Orleans crackpot lawyer and let’s deposition Rob Manfred.

I digress…In the aftermath of Game One, manager Matt Quatraro and his players were understandably frustrated by the alleged lack of evidence necessary to overturn that call.

From Rustin Dodd at The Athletic:

“We tagged up the photos and you could see clear contact, and then you could see the daylight between his foot and the base,” Massey said.

“I got a really good look at it out there and afterwards,” Quatraro said, “and I think we did have a really good argument that that should have been overturned.”

“If that’s something that’s not going to be overturned, I don’t really know what’s clear and convincing,” Massey said. “I’m not really sure the whole point of the system.”

The Royals are basically saying what everyone in Kansas City and all other right-minded citizens who despise the Yankees are saying.

Massey, though, took the high road.

“That’s not the reason we lost the game,” Massey said of the replay decision. “We had plenty of opportunities to score runs and make plays, and we didn’t.”

I’m glad Massey pointed that out. It’s what I was saying in my writeup on Sunday in discussing the outcome of Game One. If you’re looking for someone to blame the umpires for a loss, that’s not going to come from this newsletter. I get that certain calls can have an outsized impact, but as Massey points out, they didn’t make certain plays in certain moments. That’s why they lost.

Still, the league needs to explain themselves to the Royals. On Sunday, Quatraro said he got one.

"They just said there was nothing clear and convincing to overturn it. If he had been called out, that call would have stood too."

The initial call on the field remains absolutely important. It’s what the replay center bases its final judgment on when either confirming, upholding or reversing a call. In this case, the language the crew chief used in his on-field explanation told the story. There was not sufficient evidence in the eyes of the replay officials to overturn the call, nor was the call confirmed. It was simply upheld.

It doesn’t make you feel any better, I’m sure. I’m right there with you. Baseball’s replay system is terrible and needs a complete reinvention with better technology.

There were a lot of complaints about the home plate umpiring during Saturday’s Game One. I didn’t really touch on that in my writeup of the game, because I didn’t feel as though the zone was that poor. Lo, from the excellent Ump Scorecards website, this is how home plate umpire Adam Hamari graded out after his performance in Game One.

Overall, that’s a fairly solid performance. Hamari generally grades as one of the more accurate and consistent home plate umpires. However, it’s wild how missed calls lead to important events. The Angel Zerpa ball to Austin Wells on a 2-0 count with the bases loaded was rated as the most impactful missed call. That made the count 3-0 and of course, Zerpa ultimately walked Wells which forced in the tying run at that point. That’s one that I have a difficult time getting worked up about. It’s outside Hamari’s red zone and it’s extremely close to the edge. Technically, yes, it’s a strike. That’s a tough call to get in your favor, though.

The 2-2 pitch to Gleyber Torres is a worse call in my opinion. That pitch is on the inner part of the edge and it’s in Hamari’s estimated zone. That was the walk that opened the fifth where things really unraveled for the bullpen.

But then there’s the call to Garrett Hampson that’s well in the zone and Hamari’s estimated zone. That pushed the count to 2-0. That’s quite the hitter’s count but Hampson, being Hampson, chased a pitcher’s pitch on the next offering.

Really, that’s not a pitch a hitter sitting 2-0 should be swinging at. Sometimes, things just work in your favor.

It’s nice to have Dodd writing about the Royals again at The Athletic, but the loss of a beat writer at that site still stings. Fortunately, Anne Rogers is around to pick up some of that slack. Her recent profile of Lucas Erceg and his recovery from alcoholism is an absolute must-read.

The date remains the same, though, stitched onto the outside in white lettering: 06/10/2020.

A constant reminder of the day Erceg’s life changed.

“It’s why I’m here, I think,” Erceg said, looking down at the glove and patting the date. “I can’t thank my choices enough for allowing myself to be here. If I hadn’t chosen to put down the bottle, I don’t know where I would be.”

Do yourself a favor and read the entire profile. Well worth your time.

One thing I didn’t mention in the aftermath of the Game One loss was this nifty defensive play from Maikel Garcia off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton:

That’s not an easy play for Garcia, no matter who is running. For starters, the ball left the bat at 103.4 MPH, so it was a rocket. It’s to Garcia’s glove side, so he’s able to make the dive for the ball, thanks to a fantastic first step. But then he has to get to his feet, pivot clockwise to get set for a throw and then fire a strike across the diamond. See? Not so easy.

We can chalk that up to Garcia’s defensive prowess, but there’s also the fact that Stanton is absolute molasses on the bases. I don’t watch a lot (any?) Yankees games, so I just never really thought about Stanton’s absolute lack of speed. Statcast has him in the third percentile of sprint speed. Watching him attempt to run in Game One, I’m thinking that’s a generous assessment.

Stanton’s lack of speed came into play earlier in the game—back in the fourth inning. He led off with a walk (of course) and was still on first when Oswaldo Cabrera laced a double to left with two outs. Stanton was forced to stop at third. Those runners were ultimately stranded. That was a case where Stanton absolutely cost the Yankees a run.

Feels like something that could come up later in the series.

Game Two starter for New York will be left-hander Carlos Rodón. It will be the first time in four games the Royals will open the game against a southpaw, so it’s likely Matt Quatraro will adjust his lineup.

Michael Massey has been the Royals’ hottest hitter in the postseason thus far as the leadoff hitter. He and Salvador Perez are the only Royals to have collected a hit in all three games. Massey also has back-to-back multi-hit games. Despite being the catalyst, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Quartraro drop him lower in the order in favor of Tommy Pham moving back to the top spot. Pham can slide over to left in place of the left-handed hitting MJ Melendez who had something of a breakout Game One, but has struggled against same-side pitchers this year. Melendez can serve as a power bat off the bench once the Yankees dip into their bullpen. The bet here is that Hunter Renfroe will make his second start of the postseason in right field.

If you’re looking for a favorable matchup from someone in the Royals lineup against Rodón, how about Perez? Lifetime Salvy is 12-26 against Rodón with three home runs. That’s good for a line of .462/.481/.846.

The Royals will counter with a lefty of their own, Cole Ragans. In his meeting with the media on the off day on Sunday, Yankee manager Aaron Boone said that he was leaning toward keeping his left-handed hitters in the lineup because of Ragans’ reverse platoon splits. Indeed, for his career, lefties have hit Ragans better than their right-handed counterparts.

It’s a trend that continued this season.

Ragans will attack right-handed batters with his four-seamer, change, cutter and curve. Against lefties, the four-seamer is complimented primarily with his slider. For whatever reason, lefties hit .174 with a .326 slugging percentage against the Ragans four-seamer while right-handers tee off on the offering to the tune of a .321 batting average and .462 slugging percentage.

Ragans doesn’t have a lengthy track record against any of the New York hitters. Juan Soto—a lefty—has the only extra-base hit against him from anyone in a Yankee uniform. He hit a home run against him back on September 11.

That means we’ll probably see Alex Verdugo again. I don’t need to see Alex Verdugo anymore in this series.

I’m still trying to sort out the Yankees using Luke Weaver to close out postseason games. Going more than three outs at that. Yeah, the same Luke Weaver the Royals traded Emmanuel Rivera for during the 2022 season. The guy who posted a 5.59 ERA in 19.1 innings in relief for Kansas City and then got placed on waivers a couple of months later. Yet there he was, facing four batters and striking out three in his postseason debut. Hell, Weaver had never even saved a game until September 6 of this year.

Since becoming the closer for New York, Weaver has made eight appearances and thrown 11 innings. He’s allowed just one run to score, a Manfred Man against Oakland, so he’s posted a perfect 0.00 ERA with a mind-bending 24 strikeouts and three walks. He has a 60 percent strikeout rate over that time.

Weaver scrapped his slider and adopted a cutter. He altered the grip of his four-seamer which gave him an extra tick or two of velocity while also gaining a couple of inches of vertical run, giving it more of a rising appearance. The result of those fastball adjustments saw his opponent's batting average against the four-seamer go from .326 with a .477 slugging percentage in 2022 when he spent time with the Royals to a .177 BA with a .331 slugging percentage this year. He also adjusted the grip of his changeup and added a little more horizontal run to the pitch. That’s likewise become a weapon.

I would not be surprised if Aaron Boone used Weaver in every game for the rest of this series. I used to think that would be a good thing.

This feels like a good place to wrap today. I’ll be kicking around the comments as usual so jump on in if you have any questions or just want to discuss baseball. Maybe it will help make the day go a little faster. And of course there will be a full wrap in your inbox on Tuesday. Have a great day.