Salvage job

The Royals escape Miami with a win. It wasn't easy. It rarely is.

What a frustrating way to kick off the second half of the season.

In Miami, facing the Florida Marlins on Friday, the Royals battled back from a 5-0 deficit to get the game tied. They did it through two John Rave home runs that plated four of those five runs. They took the lead in the 10th when newly acquired Adam Frazier doubled in two. Then, in the bottom of the inning, six pitches was all it took for Carlos Estévez to blow the save and the game. The Royals couldn’t do a thing on the offensive side on Saturday, but as usual, the pitching held long enough for Salvador Perez to tie the score at one-all in the top of the eighth. Then, Lucas Erceg blew the game in the bottom half when he gave up two walks and two doubles to the first four batters he faced.

Sunday though was shaping up to be a laugher.

The Royals struck first, with doubles in the fourth inning from Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Jac Caglianone that plated three runs. An inning later, an error, a wild pitch and another double, this one from Jonathan India, and the Royals scored three more.

Perez added a home run in the eighth to push the score to 7-0. The Captain finished the series 5-10 with two doubles and two home runs.

Yes, the Royals were rolling. Then, it got unnecessarily tense.

Even though the Royals won, we have to discuss the ninth inning. And before we get to the bottom of the ninth, we have to talk about the top half.

“The top of the ninth?” you’re asking yourself. “What is he on about?”

Yeah, I realize I’m picking at offensive nits here, but what I saw in the top of the inning is something we’ve seen far too often in 2025.

The inning begins in promising fashion. Kyle Isbel loops one into center for a single. Jonathan India works a walk. The Royals, as you know, are leading at this point by seven runs. They are threatening for more, especially with their three best hitters up next.

Miami reliever Valente Bellozo needed just three pitches to get out of the inning.

The sweeper was delivered to Bobby Witt Jr., who hit a shallow pop up to right. The infield fly rule was actually called. The higher of the two four-seamers was offered to Vinnie Pasquantino, who—you guessed it—popped it up into foul territory by third base for the second out. The pipe shot of the other fastball was thrown to Maikel Garcia, who lined out to center.

The league is hitting .340/.349/.581 when putting the first pitch of a plate appearance into play. The Royals, as a team, are hitting .299/.315/.534 when they put the first pitch of a plate appearance into play. That’s 18 percent worse than the league average.

For your review, I submit the splits for when each Royal currently on the roster (and with at least 10 at bats) puts the first pitch into play:

Loftin has been surprisingly productive in this split, though in limited action. I’m not at all surprised at Witt with a 136 OPS+ here. He’s a great hitter and great hitters have great first pitch splits. Even though he didn’t come through on Sunday. I’ll say he was out in front of an 80 mph sweeper. Can’t win them all.

Still, Witt and the catchers can’t pull this group out of this first-pitch pits.

As I’ve written before, you can pick your batting split. The Royals are not going to be showing well on any of them. This was just an obvious example late in a game where the team must have felt they had this one in the bag. Still incredibly frustrating to watch. Especially when it’s the heart of the order.

Now, to the bottom of the inning…

Yes, we have to discuss this, too.

The Royals, after squandering a solid chance in their half of the ninth, still started the bottom half up by nine. At this exact moment, the Royals had a 99.9 percent chance of winning this game. After all, they needed three outs. The Marlins needed seven runs to keep the game going. The computer (and I) liked the odds.

Andrew Hoffmann, the Royals fourth reliever of the afternoon, got Kyle Stowers on a ground ball for the first out. That pushed the win probability to a smooth 100%. Drive home safely, everybody!

Except then Hoffmann walked a batter. He got the second out. Then he walked another.

With runners on first and second and two outs, Hoffman induced number nine hitter Javier Sanoja to hit a ground ball to second. India was shaded toward the bag, so he had to move to his left. He came in a bit. The ball bounced once. Twice. And on the third bounce, it came up off the ground at a lower angle than India anticipated. It clanged off his glove. Literally. Clang.

The game was over. It should’ve been over. It was not over. The Marlins had the bases loaded. A single from Xavier Edwards scored two runs. In the Royals bullpen, Carlos Estévez got up, a scenario as unlikely as it was unthinkable just 10 minutes before. A double from Agustín Ramírez scored two more. Suddenly, it was a save situation.

Estévez got a ground ball from Otto Lopez, but it was to Witt’s right. Witt didn’t field it cleanly, but I doubt a good pick would’ve given him time to make a throw. It felt like it was going to unravel. How did the Royals get to this point? How did the Marlins position themselves for the win? Moments earlier, the Royals needed one out to exit South Florida with a 7-0 victory. Now, one swing of the bat could knot the game at seven.

Estévez challenged Liam Hicks with a 0-1 heater up. Hicks was late and under the pitch. He lofted a fly ball that John Rave tracked into foul territory from his position in left. Ballgame.

Jonathan India exhaled.

India has never been a good fielder. The Royals probably didn’t do him any favors by asking him to move off a position that he regularly plays to one that was rather foreign to him. Credit to India for making the move with no complaint. Perhaps he should’ve said something. Now he’s back at his familiar second base and the results are…still not good. Among second basemen with 200 or more innings at the position this year, India has a -8 Fielding Run Value according to Baseball Savant. That’s the worst mark in the majors. That’s a -8 Fielding Runs in 344 innings. The next worst fielders at the keystone are Brandon Lowe of Tampa at -7 in over double the innings (670). Boston’s Kristian Campbell is also at -7, but he’s currently in Triple-A.

Perhaps through this lens, the acquisition of Adam Frazier makes a little more sense.

The Royals picked up Frazier from the Pittsburgh Pirates over the All-Star Break for minor leaguer Cam Devanney. The move was a bit of a head-scratcher. I posted an insta-reaction social media type thing on Bluesky where I wrote, “No, I don’t understand what the Royals are doing.”

On the surface, it’s a strange move. Frazier was in Kansas City last summer and absolutely did not impress. He hit just .202/.282/.294 and posted -0.5 fWAR, the only time in his career he was in the negative at the end of the year. But Frazier, of all the veteran outsiders the Royals had on their roster last year, was the glue guy of the bunch. A leader of sorts. The younger guys seemed to gravitate toward him. I know, I know…clubhouse chemistry and all that. After 2014, though, and the Raúl Ibañez team meeting, I look at things like that quite differently.

Plus, Frazier fills a need of a decent fielder at second base. Michael Massey just started another round of a rehab assignment in Double-A this week and will rotate between the outfield and DH. We know the danger that India presents. Had Frazier not started the game on Sunday in left (after hitting a go-ahead two-run double in extra innings on Friday and then walking in a pinch hit appearance in the eighth on Saturday), I bet he would’ve been at second base in Sunday’s ninth inning.

So the Royals are bringing in a known guy who was having a solid season in Pittsburgh. Probably doesn’t hurt.

I don’t want to overlook how solid the offense was for the middle innings of Sunday’s game. Every starter either had a hit, scored a run or drove in a run. It was a total team effort. Yes, it’s too rare that we see a game like this, but the offense is capable of stringing together some hits. It was the sixth time this season—and third time in July—that the Royals hit five or more doubles in a game.

The Royals now have nine wins in the month. That’s after just eight wins in June.

But after watching the Royals get stymied by Sandy Alcantara on Friday and Cal Quantrill (as usual) on Saturday, this offense remains mostly frustrating.

Kris Bubic was effective in his start on Sunday, going five innings and allowing three hits while striking out two. He was pulled after throwing just 66 pitches.

His velocity was down on the afternoon.

That’s down across the board and substantial.

In his post-game meeting with the media, manager Matt Quatraro said that Bubic was pulled because he had been battling an illness over the All-Star break. Quatraro also added that with the score of the game (6-0 at the time) and the fact the bullpen was rested, it felt like an opportunity to manage some innings from the starter.

Here’s Bubic after the game to Anne Rogers:

“Other than just being under the weather, it wasn’t something I was too concerned about,” Bubic said of his velocity. “But otherwise, I still wanted to pitch, I still wanted to pitch as long as I could. And for the offense to give us a comfortable lead like that probably made the decision definitely a little bit easier.”

Until that ninth inning hiccup, the bullpen held steady. Relievers Steven Cruz, Taylor Clarke and Sam Long combined for three scoreless innings with just two baserunners allowed and four strikeouts. And even though Hoffmann couldn’t get through the ninth, it should be noted that all four of his runs were unearned.

I don’t know what you were worried about.

Never in doubt.

Central Issues

Athletics 2, Guardians 8

Starter Gavin Williams punched out a season-high 11 batters in seven innings. The top of the Cleveland lineup did the heavy lifting as Angel Martínez went 3-5 with a home run and a double and David Fry added a three-run double while driving in four.

Twins 7, Rockies 1

Staring at a sweep in Colorado, Minnesota got a stopper performance from Joe Ryan who struck out 11 (it’s a theme) in seven innings while Royce Lewis, one day after having a meeting with manager Rocco Baldelli about his underwhelming play to this point of the season, homered twice.

White Sox 7, Pirates 2

Are the White Sox good? Are the Pirates horrible? Why are we even asking questions about this game? Chicago got their first sweep of the season in Pittsburgh, outscoring the Pirates by a 27-7 tally. It’s the Sox first road sweep since July of 2022. Miguel Vargas and Mike Tauchman hit back-to-back homers in the first (Vargas’ was a three-run shot) and never looked back. Aaron Civale struck out six over six innings.

Tigers 2, Rangers 1

The Tigers snapped a six-game losing streak and became the first team in the majors to reach 60 wins. Tarik Skubal shoved as usual, going 6.2 innings while striking out 11. A Matt Vierling two-out single in the eighth plated the winning run for Detroit.

Below are the playoff odds for the teams currently in the Wild Card hunt in the AL.

That’s a messy graph of nine teams. The Yankees and Mariners look good value at the moment, with the Red Sox and Rays battling it out for that final spot. The Royals are much lower in the pack and are the eighth-favorite out of those nine teams. They don’t have to leapfrog all of them to get to October. Just five of them.

Up Next

Mon at CHC - LHP Noah Cameron (3-4, 2.31) vs. Ryan Brasier (0-0, 1.04), 7:05 p.m.
Tue at CHC - TBA vs. LHP Matthew Boyd (10-3, 2.34), 7:05 p.m.
Wed at CHC - RHP Seth Lugo (6-5, 2.94) vs. TBA, 1:20 p.m.

Tuesday would be Michael Lorenzen’s spot, but he’s on the IL with an oblique strain, so it’s likely the Royals will have to cobble together a bullpen game of some sort. As of this writing, they were still working through their options.

There are 10 days until the trading deadline.