Welcome to the Winter Meetings

The Royals arrive in Nashville with a lengthy shopping list, but a limited budget.

The Royals roll into the Winter Meetings in Nashville with an undoubtedly lengthy to-do list.

At the top of that list will be adding to and improving their pitching.

Last summer, the Royals got starts from a whopping 23 different pitchers. Sure, that’s what happens when your rotation is abysmal and the services of an opener is used liberally. Yet of those 23 starters, only four made double-digit starts. Three of those guys are considered locks for the 2024 rotation: Cole Ragans (12 starts), Brady Singer (29) and Jordan Lyles (31). That leaves the Royals in the market for two starters. While both can come internally (think Daniel Lynch IV, Angel Zerpa or Kris Bubic once he fully rehabs from Tommy John surgery), a more likely solution is going to have to come from outside the organization.

Honestly, in my mind the only true rotation lock at this point is Ragans. Sure, they’re paying Lyles fourth starter cash, but he provided sixth starter results. (Wait! Isn’t it a five-man rotation, you’re asking yourself? Ahhh, yes…You get it.) Singer has been volatile over his four seasons in the rotation and due $5.1 million per MLB Trade Rumors arbitration estimates, he could be shopped around this winter.

So even if Lynch—who is pitching relatively well for Leones del Escogido in the Dominican Winter League with a 2.66 ERA in just over 20 innings with 23 strikeouts—or Zerpa—who started and threw three quality innings in the Arizona Fall League championship game—open the season in the rotation, it’s likely the Royals will be needing some other options.

It’s been reported the Royals were in on a couple of free-agent starting pitchers who already signed. Since the market hasn’t really moved forward at this point (it would seem even the Royals are waiting on Shohei Ohtani) just for fun, here’s the list of notable free-agent starters who have signed.

Aaron Nola - 7 years/$172 million
Sonny Gray - 3 years/$75 million
Kenta Maeda - 2 years/$24 million
Luis Severino - 1 year/$13 million
Kyle Gibson - 1 year/$13 million
Lance Lynn - 1 year/$11 million

I’ll go out on a limb and speculate the Royals weren’t in on Nola or Gray. And given the fact the Royals are desperate for innings, it’s doubtful they did more than inquire about Maeda who made his return last year after missing 2022 with a torn UCL. The same goes for Severino who has thrown only 209 innings since 2019.

That leaves Gibson and Lynn, both of whom went to St. Louis (along with Gray), presumably to shore up the back of the rotation. Neither guy moves the needle for me (and judging from the reaction of the Best Fans In Baseball, it really doesn’t for them—which was the best entertainment option I had this November), even as trade fodder at the deadline in the off chance one of them would be appealing to a contender.

That’s a long way of writing that if this the bargain bin Picollo has been shopping around in, I’m not impressed.

I have been impressed with Kansas City making a play for a pair of pitchers from Atlanta. Last month the Royals nabbed Nick Anderson for cash and Kyle Wright for Jackson Kowar.

(Kowar’s value to Atlanta became apparent on Sunday night as he was shipped to Seattle in a deal that can only be described from the Mariners’ perspective as a “salary dump.”)

The Royals are playing the long game with Wright, who will miss all of next season after undergoing shoulder surgery for a torn capsule. He’s just one year removed from posting a 3.19 ERA with 174 strikeouts in just over 180 innings with a 56 percent ground ball rate. You can overlook some middling Statcast metrics when the ball is put on the ground at that kind of rate. However, a return from a serious shoulder injury is far from a sure thing. Wright has an option remaining for when he returns and is under club control until 2027.

Anderson missed all of 2022 after undergoing a UCL brace procedure on his elbow but had a successful return to the bullpen before landing back on the injury list, this time with a shoulder strain. Before that, however, he posted a 3.06 ERA in 35 innings out of the bullpen for Atlanta, striking out 36 and walking nine.

Neither pitcher qualifies as a “sure thing,” but that’s kind of the state of the game these days. Especially for a team like the Royals, with little capital to spend to get these pitchers on their roster.

The offseason in Kansas City follows a familiar pattern. There’s the waiting for October baseball to end. Then there’s the opening rumbles and the thinking that the Royals need to act, and soon, getting a jump on the market. Once they make their first move, it’s met with the howls of “Not that guy!”

Welp…It’s happened again. Last week the Royals announced they signed Garrett Hampson to a one-year, $2 million deal. Hampson was non-tendered by the Marlins.

And stop me if you’ve heard this one before…Hampson’s calling card is his speed. He ranked in the 96th percentile on Baseball Savant’s Sprint Speed score. He’s also versatile, playing across the outfield and the infield. In announcing his signing, Picollo also noted Hampson’s 2023 OBP, which was a solid .349. However, it should be noted that his career OBP is just .305. And that’s factoring in his last season.

It’s difficult to get up in arms about a deal that’s more about depth than anything else, but I get the angst. Depth isn’t something a team coming off a 106-loss season should be concerned about. Yeah, it’s important, but it’s not like a top-10 issue.

Plus, the Royals have Nick Loftin and Samad Taylor already on their 40-man. Both are younger, cheaper and have options.

In signing Hampson, the Royals 40-man roster is now full. That means if they want to have a selection in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, they’ll need to get someone off the roster. There’s certainly no shortage of candidates to remove.

One thing that always kind of amuses me is the reaction when the Royals make a move for a player that another move is forthcoming because the incoming player is already kind of surplus to requirements. That’s the situation with Hampson. However, I don’t think the Royals operate that way. Rosters are always in flux, especially for teams like the Royals and moves are always on the table. Sure, there are probably a couple of irons in the fire, but there’s a Plan D if Plans A, B and C don’t come to fruition. And that’s assuming the Royals have a player in available in the Rule 5 they want to draft. The draft is on Wednesday,  so the Royals have about 48 hours from the time you’re reading this post to open a spot.

Baseball teams move in mysterious circles.

One more key date to circle on your Winter Meetings calendar is the draft lottery that will be held on Tuesday. The Royals have an 18.3 percent chance of securing the number one overall pick. They and the A’s and the Rockies have the best odds at picking first.

The Royals’ first selection can fall anywhere between number one and number eight. After the first round, the draft goes in the normal order, meaning the Royals, with the second-worst record in the majors last year, will have the second pick in the second round and all subsequent rounds.

The meetings opened in earnest on Sunday night with the announcement that the Baseball Hall of Fame’s Contemporary Baseball Era Committee voted manager Jim Leyland into the Hall.

Leyland is an incredibly deserving honoree. His 1,727 wins rank 18th all-time and he skippered teams to six division titles and eight postseason appearances in 22 years, including a World Series title with Florida in 1997.

Lou Piniella, who like Leyland, managed his first game in 1986, ranks just ahead of Leyland on the all-time wins list with 1,835 career victories. He missed enshrinement by a single vote, the same outcome as the last time he was up for consideration. Piniella managed in seven postseasons but won just one pennant and title—with the Reds in 1990. He led the Mariners to 116 wins in 2001 and piloted the 1995 team to the playoffs, a season credited with saving baseball in Seattle.

To me, it’s difficult to pick between the two. If one is a Hall of Famer, the other should be. It’s too bad that Piniella has fallen a single vote short on two occasions.

You probably haven’t noticed, but I’ve pretty much put my Twitter account into cold storage. I’m on Bluesky these days, so if you’ve been wanting to check out that scene, here are a few invite codes for you:

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Now I just need to find some Arsenal accounts over there to follow. Enjoy!