Four questions

As the Royals prepare to open camp this week, here are a few questions about the team and the season ahead that are rattling around my baseball brain.

Once upon a time, I worked on gamedays for the Kansas City Football Club. I was there for about seven or eight years…the time seems to run together. The highlight of my time was when Jason Whitlock accused me of trying to start a riot at Arrowhead. (Yes, this really happened.) I also, for a time, sat next to the late Gunther Cunningham when he was the defensive coordinator. A piece of plexiglass separated us, except on the occasion his anger melted it down. Which happened frequently. In those days, it was usually focused on the shortcomings of the poor offensive coordinator. I use a lot of…let’s say colorful language in my everyday vocabulary. Cunningham was a true artisté of the profane.

Those are my football stories. Congrats to the Truman Sports Complex co-habitants for winning yet another title. Championships never get old and dynasties are all kinds of awesome. Somewhere, there’s hope the Royals can find a way forward to emulate some of that success. It looks like all it takes is a couple of future Hall of Famers in key positions and a pop star. Easy…and fun!

Naturally, with the end of the Super Bowl, baseball teams hit that “post” button with their “now it’s baseball season” takes. Sorry…What the hell were they talking about? Baseball season never ends. At least in my little corner of the universe. I assume that’s why you’re here. Baseball!

As the semi trucks stocked with gear hurdle down Route 66 or whatever god-forsaken stretch of highway it takes to get to Arizona, here are a handful of questions rumbling around my mind as the Royals are just a couple of days away from their first official workout of 2024.

What does a full season of the Pasquatch in the lineup look like?

It feels as if Vinnie Pasquantino has been on the Royals as long as Bobby Witt Jr. has been around. That’s kinda sorta accurate. Pasquantino has one year and 101 days of major league service time, so he’s not that far behind Witt, who has played two full seasons. The difference is that Pasquantino has yet to play an entire year in big leagues.

Over the parts of the two seasons Pasquantino has played in Kansas City, he’s accumulated 558 plate appearances in 133 games. That’s just a little shy of a full season’s worth of time. Still, he’s hit an impressive .272/.355/.444, good for a wRC+ of 121 and 1.5 fWAR. His bat, when it’s in the lineup, is productive. Imagine how much better the Royals’ lineup would be with that kind of production for a full year in the middle of the order.

To that end, Steamer is projecting quite an improvement from what should be a healthy Pasquantino in 2024. They have him hitting .285/.362/.485 and a 128 wRC+. That would translate to 2.6 fWAR. ZiPS is a little less bullish at .282/.350/.467 and a 119 wRC+.

You know I’m a believer in Pasquantino’s bat. To me, he’s like a Witt in that he’s just now kind of scratching the surface with his talent at the dish. I would not be surprised if he matches or surpasses the Steamer projection. With the Witt contract, there’s been a ton of talk about building the team around him…what if one of the key building blocks is already here? I would state that if the Royals are going to reach a win total in the 70s, they’re going to need a full season of the Pasquatch.

Where will the innings come from?

The Royals spent the winter overhauling their pitching staff, but despite the money thrown in this direction, questions still remain. Remember the Halycon days when Dayton Moore stated he expected his rotation to throw 1,000 innings?

Presumed Opening Day starter Cole Ragans has thrown 136 innings in his major league career. Seth Lugo spent the bulk of his major league career coming out of the bullpen until he made 26 starts and offered 146 innings last year. Michael Wacha has been in the bigs since 2013 and has topped 170 innings in a season exactly one time. And you know trusting Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles is inviting agony.

The Royals have the depth to make starts, and as we saw last summer, manager Matt Quatraro isn’t averse to using an opener to cobble together a few starts, but for the Royals to break that 70-victory plateau, they’re going to require some consistency from their rotation.

Will the Royals continue to fumble their downtown stadium announcements?

This is a late addition here given the team on Monday announced a press conference on Tuesday at 2:30 to unveil the site of their proposed downtown stadium. Weird timing between a Super Bowl championship and another parade for their co-tenants at the Sports Complex, but I guess they have to get their house in order before everyone decamps to the desert for Spring Training.

As Sam McDowell reports for The Star, all signs are pointing to the Royals moving to the Crossroads…where the old Star printing press stands, just south of the loop and the T-Mobile Center. If there’s a site with ghosts running around the downtown area, it would have to be where an old newspaper printing press is located. Nothing like tearing down a tax-subsidized building that was out of date as soon as it opened and replacing it with…checks notes…another tax-subsidized building.

Per the Royals’ release on the announcement:

“Important details about this transformative project will be shared including renderings, economic data, and progress towards lease and community benefits agreement.”

I can’t wait to learn about the economic benefits which I’m sure will be totally grounded in reality.

(That line was sarcasm. All economic data presented will likely be completely made up. That’s just how these things work.)

How will the Royals navigate the early part of their schedule?

The Royals have what looks to be a difficult schedule to open the year. They will play 59 games through May, with 32 of those contests coming against teams that appeared in the postseason last year.

Obviously, with expanded playoffs that particular qualifier carries a little less significance. Still, compare the first two months of the schedule with the last two months where the Royals will play 53 times with just 16 of those games coming against playoff clubs.

March/April
31 games - 18 vs playoff teams

May
28 games - 14 vs playoff teams

June
28 games - 9 vs playoff teams

July
23 games - 6 vs playoff teams

August
27 games - 9 vs playoff teams

September
26 games - 7 vs playoff teams

I’m not a huge fan of the whole “strength of schedule” thing when it comes to baseball. So many of these matchups are about timing. Injuries, the pitching rotation and the matchups and generally streakiness are all factors. Still, the schedule does seem skewed a bit strong in the early months. This is, as you know, where the Royals have stumbled so many times. Bad teams are going to lose often, no matter when they play the games, but teams with a sliver of hope in the early going can get absolutely derailed by a poor start.

Getting off on the right foot is, as always, incredibly important.

Four questions…seems like a good place to wrap up this lunchtime edition of ItF. I’ll be back tomorrow with reaction to their stadium announcement. Should be fun!