The Royals think Aroldis Chapman can help their bullpen
Declining performance and character issues...What can go wrong?
A day after being linked to free agent reliever Aroldis Chapman, the Royals made their move on Thursday. They signed the hard-throwing left-hander to a one-year deal worth $3.75 million. Chapman can earn another quarter million in performance bonuses.
They say the club is bigger than the player. However, the player can say a lot about the club.
The Royals have gone the baseball mercenary route, ignoring off-field issues and declining performance in the hope they can catch a break and flip a once-dominant closer at the trade deadline. They say there is no such thing as a bad one-year contract, but I’m struggling to find any kind of upside here for the Royals. At best, he pitches a few decent innings, is jettisoned at the trade deadline for a C-level prospect and becomes someone else’s problem. At worst, he’s the has-been playing out the remaining days of his career as an uninterested party…a flame-out who is designated for assignment once it becomes apparent the results (and commitment) aren’t there.
It’s a high-risk, low-reward move. And it is a bad look for a franchise struggling to move forward. Sometimes, you just have to take a pass. I wonder what the Royals are thinking…If they’re thinking at all.
It is said that Chapman arrives with some “baggage.” I’d argue it’s more like a “steamer trunk.” There’s…a lot.
I want to write about what we know…the facts.
Late in 2015, Chapman was in an argument with his girlfriend. According to The Washington Post, in a police report obtained by Yahoo! Sports, she stated Chapman put his hands around her neck and knocked her to the floor. The report also stated that later that night Chapman locked himself in his garage, took a gun from the glove compartment from his car, and fired it eight times. Seven bullets hit a wall. An eighth went through a window and into an open field.
Chapman was not arrested when police were called, nor was he ever charged. Prosecutors said lack of cooperation from Chapman’s girlfriend and inconsistent information from witnesses was the driving force behind dropping the case.
However, Major League Baseball is allowed to discipline a player in a case of domestic violence even if the case never goes to trial. Two months after prosecutors declined to bring charges, Rob Manfred announced a 30-game suspension for Chapman. He was the first player to be suspended through MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy.
Chapman initially said he would appeal any suspension from MLB. However, on advice from his attorney, he decided against that move once the punishment was handed down. Chapman apologized for firing the gun but continued to maintain he did not hurt his girlfriend.
Chapman missed six weeks of the 2022 season with Achilles tendonitis. He was slowly making his way back when he was sidelined again. From Lindsey Adler at The Athletic:
“A new tattoo, unfortunately portraying his sister’s face, was surrounded by a veritable moat of pus about an inch wide, according to multiple people who saw it. The tattoo and the ensuing wound were news to the Yankees. The issue had gone unchecked for so long that Chapman was in clear physical pain, with a spiking fever as his body tried to fight off a sizable infection.”
The tattoo was on a leg. As was the “veritable moat of pus.” The infection resulted in another month on the sidelines for Chapman. This time it came during the late August/early September playoff push for the Yankees.
The injuries, along with poor performance when he was on the field, meant he needed to show something to the Yankee management when they were trying to assemble their roster for the American League Divisional Series. Chapman had actually pitched well in seven games after recovering from the infected tattoo and was in the running for a spot on the postseason roster. A workout was planned where Chapman would throw live batting practice to make his case.
He didn’t show.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman:
“Clearly disappointing, but at the same time not surprised by how things started to play out over the course of the season. It was surprising at first, like a little shocking, but then after the shock wore off, when you add everything up, it’s not surprising. There’s some questions about whether he’s been all in or not for a little while, and he’s maintained verbally that he’s in, but at times actions don’t match those words.”
If the cat couldn’t be motivated to pitch in the postseason, exactly how’s it going to fly when he’s coming in for the seventh inning against Detroit after the All-Star break?
Maybe the off-field issues don’t phase you. You come here for some baseball analysis, damnit. Fine. Here goes…
Chapman is washed.
Honestly, it’s as simple as that.
Chapman has always had a tenuous relationship with command. In 2022, it fractured.
Chapman is locating outside of the zone more than ever. When he’s missing, according to Edge%, it’s not especially close. It’s not like an arithmetic equation per se, but it’s a nifty little correlation. He’s missing the strike zone more frequently, and by a larger margin than what he’s done in the past. Thus, his O-Swing%, the rate where he’s getting batters to chase pitches outside of the strike zone, is lower than it’s ever been.
2022 was a disastrous season for Chapman. He finished with the second-highest walk rate of his career, the lowest strikeout rate, the highest FIP and posted a negative fWAR for the first time in his career.
This is not some sort of anomaly or an outlier. Chapman is going to be 35 this season. As you would expect from someone who came equipped with a flamethrower when he exploded on the scene in his early 20s, the tank is running a bit low on petrol.
He still brings the heat, relative to the rest of the league. Statcast had Chapman’s fastball in the 96th percentile for velocity. My theory is that doesn’t matter much. Yeah, it’s impressive that he’s still out in front of most of his peers when it comes to velocity, but can Chapman cope with what has been a steady decline in that department? He’s lost almost 4 MPH off his fastball since 2016, an average decline of about half a tick a year. That’s a lot. Older pitchers—we saw this with the return of Zack Greinke last summer—need to evolve and adapt. They simply can’t keep slinging the same stuff at 35 that they did at 23 and expect the same results. I’m questioning whether Chapman will evolve as he ages. From last year’s results, it wouldn’t seem like it.
Can we please dispense with the argument that Dayton Moore wouldn’t have signed Chapman? First, we’ll never know. Second, given the opportunity, I think he would’ve made the move.
Moore is a man of faith who believes in redemption…In forgiveness…And in second (and third and fourth) chances. Iron sharpens iron and all that. The temptation to put someone like Chapman in the clubhouse to rub shoulders with men like Salvador Perez…The opportunity to mold Chapman into his best self…Yeah…He totally would’ve signed Chapman.
Let’s not forget Chapman sparking a benches-clearing incident against Tampa Bay with a high and tight fastball to Mike Brosseau in 2020!
There was some bad blood between the clubs and it sure felt like there was some intent behind that pitch. At least the Rays thought so. MLB agreed, handing down a three-game suspension for Chapman. It was reduced to two after Chapman appealed. Here’s the whole kerfuffle.
I spy Matt Quatraro!
Brosseau got his revenge a month later, in the playoffs.
Quite the karmic dinger, wouldn’t you say?
The Royals need bullpen help. This is obvious. Their relievers combined to post a 4.66 ERA last year, 27th in baseball. Their strikeout rate of 21.1 percent ranked 26th. Their 11 percent walk rate was the worst in the league.
Yet, this signing just doesn’t make any sense as it doesn’t really address those issues and it comes with the aforementioned “baggage.” There’s a reason Chapman has lasted this long on the market and has fallen into the lap of a team like the Royals. There’s been next to no demands for his services. Character issues plus a declining performance equal a guy serious teams generally avoid.
From the Adler article above:
Chapman has always operated with quirks, running on “Chappy Time” and practicing his own preparation and routines typically separate from the team-prescribed programs demanded of everyone else. But things change once your rate of success plummets the way Chapman’s did this year for the Yankees. After years of being managed and coached based on his track record, he became managed by results.
The Yankees (and Cubs for a blip…and maybe the Reds) catered to Chapman and, as Adler terms it, his “quirks.” Those can be tolerated when the team is winning and the player is performing at a high level. But on a second division squad with young talent developing, it’s probably not what you want.
I am far from optimistic that the signing of Chapman works in any way for the Royals. It’s difficult to see how this signing helps them win more games. It’s difficult to see how this helps the team build goodwill when they’re looking to convince a community they’re committed to winning and require a new stadium. And it’s difficult to suss out what’s going on in the front office.
It’s a pointless signing by a franchise that has spent the winter redefining irrelevance. It feels like 2007 all over again.
Saw him in 2010 here in Louisville ( Reds AAA) - he was a starter then. I would take that guy. Not the one we see today. What scout signed off on him when nobody else thinks he can pitch?
You alluded to it, but leaving aside the declining performance, I don't understand bringing this personality into a clubhouse of young players, even if it's only as a trade chip and he's somehow worth something in July. Feels like Jose Guillen all over again.