Royals aren't done shopping

Kansas City signs second baseman Adam Frazier, adding to an already crowded roster. They're also in the market for a closer.

Why?

I’ll come clean and admit that was my first reaction to learning the Royals signed free agent Adam Frazier to a one-year deal with a mutual option for a second.

As in, why do the Royals think they need Frazier?

Most of the Royals’ moves this winter have clearly improved what was a 106-loss team in 2023. This one doesn’t really move the meter. Frazier has been in the majors since 2016 when he broke in with the Pittsburgh Pirates. As you’ve probably heard, since moving on from Pittsburgh, he’s been part of teams that have broken extended playoff droughts with the Mariners in 2022 and then with the Orioles last year.

If I were to choose a word to describe Frazier’s major league career, it would be…inconsistent. He’s posted an fWAR above 2.0 just twice. In 2019 he finished at 2.7 while providing offensive production that was just below league average. It was his glove that did the work for him that year as he finished fourth in Defensive Runs Saved among second basemen. In 2021 Frazier posted a career-best 3.5 fWAR which was aided by a 113 wRC+, meaning he was about 13 percent better than the league-average hitter. His glovework still rated highly, although it didn’t really shine until his midseason trade to San Diego.

Last year in Baltimore, Frazier hit .240/.300/.396 which was good for a 93 wRC+ but his fielding…it was quite bad. He finished with a -4 DRS which ranked him 26th among second basemen. The metrics at FanGraphs likewise tell the tale of a glove gone awry. Add it together and his 0.3 fWAR in 2023 was the worst of his career.

Here’s what the Royals can expect from Frazier. He’s a guy who can put the bat on the baseball. He struck out just under 15 percent of the time last year and his whiff rate on swings was 19 percent, which was in the 84th percentile among hitters. He’s not a speedster, but he’s a smart baserunner who should be good for close to double-digits in steals. The power is modest at best. Last year Frazier clubbed 13 home runs, a career high and just the third time he’s reached double-digit dingers.

I’ve seen talk about Frazier’s versatility, but I’m not really sold on that. Yes, he’s spent time at both third and short but he’s played both positions for just 26 innings each in his major league career. He has shifted to the outfield on occasion.  Frazier has spent over 850 innings in left and over 350 in right. I suppose in a pinch he could cover a range of territory for the Royals, but he’s going to log most of his innings at second base.

But who gets most of those innings at second base? The Royals’ incumbent second baseman would be Michael Massey. Massey, like Frazier, hits from the left side, which makes a platoon between the two a non-starter. The Royals also kicked off their free agent signing spree by inking Garrett Hampson to a deal back in November. Hampson has more versatility in the infield than Frazier and can play the outfield as well. Waiting in the wings are Samad Taylor and Nick Loftin. Loftin carries a bit of prospect pedigree as he’s rated by Baseball America as the Royals’ third-best prospect entering the season.

And since Frazier’s versatility is really more infielder/outfielder than super utility infielder, let’s toss him in the outfield hopper along with MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters and newly acquired Hunter Renfroe and also Hampson. Then let’s not forget Dairon Blanco and even Tyler Gentry.

This roster feels awfully crowded with players who either need to prove something or players who are acting as depth.

That’s not necessarily the wrong way to build a roster. (Although it kind of puts the pressure on yours truly whenever the next roster projection drops.) We’ve seen it on the pitching side year after year…Depth has a way of working itself out. Injuries and underperformance happen. Needs that were unforeseen back in February are suddenly pressing in April.

There’s no such thing as a bad one-year contract. There’s especially no such thing as a bad one-year contract when it costs just $2 million (with a $2.5 million buyout on a mutual option for 2025). While it’s entirely possible Frazier is an upgrade at second, it feels incremental at best. If this is about creating competition and pushing someone like Massey while also taking a bit of pressure off by opening the year with him as an everyday player…why not?

I wasn’t enamored with what I saw from Massey at the plate last year. I’m far from convinced he’s an everyday player. It’s a good idea for the Royals to bring in competition for the spot. Maybe they’ll end up with a platoon of Hampson and Frazier at the keystone while Massey is back in Triple-A to further refine his work at the plate.

The Royals have given themselves options here. I’m not convinced they’re especially good options, but nevertheless…they’re options. It’s now up to the Royals to pick the right ones.

We have seen this winter as JJ Picollo has been busy overhauling the roster, the Royals are much more likely to trade a player to remove him from the 40-man roster as opposed to just DFAing a player to open space. As Anne Rogers reports at MLB.com, the Royals are, in fact, exploring trade options to open that spot they’ll need for Frazier.

As you know, I’m always skeptical when a team signs a player that a trade must be in the works. These transactions are never so straightforward. Maybe I’m wrong here, but if the Royals are truly looking to open space via a trade, that means they’re looking at the bottom of their roster and removing a guy for a lottery ticket in the minors. I will grant that it’s entirely possible there is something in the works that would qualify as a larger move. From Ken Rosenthal earlier this week at The Athletic:

The Royals have spent $105 million on six free agents this offseason, most notably right-handers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. But they remain open to adding one more piece — a closer.

With the free-agent market all but picked out, the Royals’ preference is to make a trade, according to a source briefed on their thinking. The problem? That market also is thin on possibilities.

The Royals haven’t played a game yet in 2024, but I’m already more than willing to give Picollo credit for improving the bullpen from what we were forced to watch last summer. It feels like what was the weakest spot on the team now has some depth, some versatility and most importantly, some quality. A good process doesn’t guarantee good results, but the Royals have to feel much better about their bullpen heading into the season.

Which is why they shouldn’t give up anything of value for a closer.

Shopping for, and paying vast sums to, a closer is a fool’s errand in major league baseball. Let the saves come to you. Don’t chase them. Especially if you’re coming off a season like the Royals had in 2023. They should be content to assemble that depth with the hope that someone steps forward that you have confidence in when he takes the ball in the ninth. Scott Barlow was a minor leaguer the Royals signed to a major league contract when he became available. Aroldis Chapman was a reclamation project signed for $3.75 million. Once those two were gone, James McArthur, who was designated for assignment by the Phillies and subsequently acquired by the Royals for Junior Marin, stepped up. Hell, think back to the most dominant bullpen we’ve ever seen. That was a draft pick, and international signing and a trade for a starting pitcher.

There’s no sure-fire secret sauce when it comes to assembling a bullpen. Reliever performance is so volatile from season to season and the price for a Proven Closer is so steep, that spending the kind of cash required to secure the services of a ninth inning arm is a dangerous game.

Also, I’m not convinced the Royals would be dealing from a position of strength in the trade market. Even with all the depth now on their roster. They’d be selling low on Melendez and Massey. Maikel Garcia is another name I’ve heard mentioned, but would the Royals really want to subtract from their infield defense? Vinnie Pasquantino is another name that’s come up in rumors. In that case, you’re dealing from a potential standpoint which is what would bring you the best return. If the Royals shipped an up-and-coming bat for a closer…well, that would be really difficult to take.

Saves can come from unlikely sources. Shopping specifically for saves is generally a poor allocation of resources. If the Royals were pursuing a closer of the caliber of Milwaukee’s Devin Williams who has two years of club control left, what would the cost be? The word that comes to mind is hefty.

I’m rather bullish on this bullpen as we get closer to the 2024 season. That’s a unique feeling of late when it comes to these Royals. With the arms they’ve assembled, I believe it gives Matt Quatraro plenty of options to mix and match in the ninth inning.

As always when trolling the markets for bullpen arms, caveat emptor applies.