Roster analysis: The Royals have the pitching, but another bat is needed

JJ Picollo found his leadoff hitter but is still searching for a power bat for one of the outfield corner spots.

Happy New Year! It’s time to dust the cobwebs off the newsletter and kick back into gear. Pitchers and catchers report in around 40 days. The first Cactus League game is in 51 days. Opening Day is just 85 days away.

We are close to returning to baseball nirvana.

Following the successes of 2024, and as the roster for 2025 begins to take shape, it looks relatively familiar. Why make wholesale changes after such a successful season? Yet, General Manager JJ Picollo hasn’t been just sitting on his hands. He’s made a couple of deals to fortify his club as they seek back-to-back trips to the postseason. Yet, to this point, it feels like more needs to be done. The outfield in particular could use more help.

Here’s how the Royals roster looks as we welcome the new year. For the purposes of this exercise, I’m looking only at players currently on the 40-man roster. With one exception as you’ll see further down the list.

Starting Pitching

Starting five: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, Alec Marsh
Depth: Daniel Lynch IV, Kyle Wright
Prospect depth: Luinder Avila, Noah Cameron

Last summer, the Royals got 911 innings from their starting rotation. That output trailed only the Seattle Mariners (942.2 innings) and represented 64 percent of all innings pitched for the club. It was, by any measure, an amazing season from the front five.

Key to this offseason was the return of free agent Michael Wacha. It allowed JJ Picollo to flip Brady Singer to Cincinnati for Jonathan India, who will hit in the leadoff spot just ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. The departure of Singer will also allow Bubic, Marsh, Lynch IV and Wright to compete for the final two spots in the rotation.

Think the Wacha deal was a good piece of business? Here are the top free agent contracts for starting pitchers so far this winter:

Corbin Burnes - 6/$210M
Max Fried - 8/$218M
Blake Snell - 5/$182M
Sean Manaea - 3/$75M
Nathan Eovaldi - 3/$75M
Luis Severino - 3/$67M
Yusei Kikuchi - 3/$63M
Michael Wacha - 3/$51M

The lone free agent remaining who will surely slot in above Wacha is Jack Flaherty.

I’m not comparing Wacha and his contract to the top three on the list above. Those were clearly the “A-Tier” of this winter’s class of starting pitchers. However, Wacha fits in the second group of pitchers. Manaea, Eovaldi, Severino and Kikuchi netted deals that average around $22 or $23 million per year. Wacha’s contract comes in at $17 million. However, there is an opportunity to tack on an additional $4 million in performance bonuses in 2027.

Bringing Wacha back opened the door to other moves and kept the Royals from extending too far fiscally.

Relief Pitching

High Leverage: Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey
Mid Leverage: Carlos Hernández, Sam Long, John Schreiber, Chris Stratton, Angel Zerpa
TBD: Daniel Lynch IV, Kyle Wright
Depth: Steven Cruz, Evan Sisk
Prospect Depth: Eric Cerantola

It may be a bit of a stretch to drop Hunter Harvey in the “high-leverage” bucket, but here I am. He only made six appearances for the Royals before a back issue sidelined him for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. Plus, he wasn’t at all effective in his 5.2 innings he threw once he arrived in Kansas City. Still, the track record is there with a strikeout rate that comes close to double-digits per nine and a tasty walk rate of around 2.5 free passes per nine. If healthy, he gives the Royals a solid bridge to Erceg.

The “mid-leverage” guys bring the usual suspect vibes. You know ‘em. Matt Quatraro knows ‘em. The rest of the league knows ‘em. Angel Zerpa was beyond solid after his late-season Omaha exile and was trusted enough to pitch in all four games of the ALDS against the Yankees. Aside from a hiccup in Game One, he showed himself to be a formidable weapon. Perhaps he moves into the top tier as the best lefty option out of the bullpen.

I included Lynch IV and Wright here because whoever loses out on spots in the rotation will land here. We saw Bubic become a trusted eighth-inning option at the end of last year. With Harvey in the mix and if Zerpa falters, it’s not difficult to see Lynch IV getting the seventh or an earlier high-leverage situation.

Infield

Starters: Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India, Michael Massey, Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr.
Depth: Nick Loftin, Nick Pratto

What? Five players for four spots? Is this another one of Rob Manfred’s schemes? Ahhh, no. It’s just your run-of-the-mill Royals roster in the Picollo/Quatraro era, where there are more players than positions and rotation is the name of the game. As noted, Massey and India will surely shuffle between the infield dirt and outfield grass—with some designated hitting thrown in for good measure.

There’s not much depth here, although you could’ve made the same argument with last year’s roster construction. Of the Nicks, I’m not ready to abandon Nick Loftin, who had an 11 percent walk rate and 14 percent strikeout rate in his 171 PAs last year. He’s a cromulent backup. I am ready to move on from Nick Pratto, who couldn’t get a look after Pasquantino went down with an injury.

Outfield

The starter: Kyle Isbel
In the rotation: MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe
Depth: Dairon Blanco, Nelson Velázquez, Drew Waters, Joey Wiemer
More depth: Tyler Gentry

Name a starting trio out of this group. I dare you. Because, as you can see, I’m certainly not bold enough.

As such, this remains the position of the most glaring weakness, and when I look at this group lumped together, it’s difficult to see a path back to the playoffs unless the Royals do something to supplement. Maybe they catch lightning in a bottle like they did with the rotation last summer, but that group had some upside and untapped potential. This group…I just don’t see it.

Isbel has improved offensively each of the last two seasons and the glove is obviously his calling card. He finished 2024 at a respectable 1.4 fWAR despite an 83 OPS+. He’s a guy who is fine to carry as your center fielder, especially when playing half your games in the vast expanse that is Kauffman Stadium.

Flanking Isbel…that’s where things get tricky. Going into the offseason Picollo noted he wanted to lengthen the lineup with some legitimate corner outfield pop. That hasn’t happened. Although it really needs to.

Catcher

Locks: Freddy Fermin, Salvador Perez
On the horizon: Carter Jensen, Blake Mitchell
3rd stringer: Luca Tresh

I know at the top of this exercise I said I was limiting the discussion to those currently on the 40-man. Yet Jensen and Mitchell are not. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the prospect capital the Royals have built up at a key position. Baseball America has Ramon Ramirez and Huyungchan Um in the Royals’ top 30 with Tresh further down the list. (I still think Tresh can ultimately find some time as a major league backup.)

Perhaps it’s from this depth that the Royals find the impact outfield bat that Picollo covets.