Stumbling at home

The Royals show some of their characteristic fight, but drop their second in a row to the Red Sox.

We are officially at the point in the season where, with the Royals firmly in contention for a spot in the postseason, losses are extremely frustrating. Especially frustrating are those losses against teams that are likewise battling for October.

The Royals fell on Tuesday to the Boston Red Sox by a score of 6-5. It was their second consecutive defeat to Boston. After coming home on the heels of a 6-1 road trip the Royals held a 2.5-game lead over Sox for the third Wild Card spot. That lead is now down to a half a game. In the process, they’ve also lost the tiebreaker against the Red Sox.

Yep. Frustrating.

It was a bit back-and-forth through the first five innings with everything to play for. The Royals jumped out to a first inning lead with a Bobby Witt Jr. single followed by a Vinnie Pasquantino double. Starter Seth Lugo couldn’t hold on to the early lead, allowing just two hits in the second, but those hits, coupled with a Michael Massey error and a productive out, meant two Red Sox scored.

In the third inning, Masataka Yoshida took Lugo deep on a split-finger pitch that was down and in. Yeah, we're all aware that left-handed hitters love a pitch down and in, so nothing weird about that previous sentence. Hitters from the left side have the ability to go down and golf it out. Which is exactly what Yoshida did.

But that far down and in?

I totally get what I said in the previous paragraph and it’s just kind of conventional baseball wisdom, but that pitch, in that location, with that count, wasn’t all that bad. In fact, that’s where you want to put the ball against Yoshida. He swings and misses on 38 percent of his swings on pitches in that location. On the occasions where he does make contact, he averages a four degree launch angle and an extremely underwhelming 67 MPH exit velocity on average. I should caveat those contact stats though with the fact that Yoshida has only put two balls in that location in play this year. Two! If he’s swinging at a pitch in that location, he’s either fouling it off or missing completely.

Sometimes, you just have to tip your cap. Begrudgingly so.

The Royals wove together a little fifth inning magic with two outs. Michael Massey atoned for his error, going down and hit an absolute bomb.

It was a 2-1 changeup that was located where starter Brayan Bello wanted it, I believe, but Massey just completely muscled up.

It sure felt like the apex was higher than 100 feet.

It was Massey’s 10th home run of the year. You’ll recall my post on Monday where I noted manager Matt Quatraro looking for a leadoff hitter. After using Maikel Garcia in the role in the series opener on Monday, it was Massey’s turn on Tuesday. I’m not sold on Massey as that guy—his OBP just isn’t good enough. Overall he’s hitting .255/.280/.480, good for a wRC+ of 102. That’s above average and that will absolutely play in this lineup. But at leadoff? Unlikely. I should also note that Massey has added 100 points to last year’s slugging percentage, though. He’s certainly gotten better as a hitter this year.

Still, it’s a good thing when Massey mashes and then is followed by Witt lining a single followed by Pasquantino doubling him home. A virtual instant one-two replay from the run the duo teamed up on in the first. This one tied the game in the fifth.

The decisive inning was the sixth. Lugo allowed a double and a single to put runners in scoring position with nobody out. From there, Lugo buckled down and got David Hamilton out on strikes. This pitch chart is something else.

He opens with a curve on the black. Comes back with a splitter that just kisses the lower corner that Hamilton offers at and misses. Next is a curve out of the zone that is a great 0-2 pitch. Finally, ahead 1-2, Lugo goes with the smoke, 95 MPH at the knees.

After securing the first out, things fell apart. Dominic Smith, who led off the inning with that double, scored on a wild pitch with an awkward slide that allowed him to elude the tag of Lugo covering the plate. A walk to the next batter meant Lugo’s night was done.

Yeah…you know how this ends. The bullpen couldn’t hold the game. Sam Long was the guy on Tuesday. He got the second out but then the Royals elected to walk Rob Refsnyder to set up the left on left matchup against that man Yoshida. No problem for the Red Sox designated hitter and designated Royal killer. He lined a single to score two more.

For his career, Yoshida hits about 55 points lower against lefties. His OBP is down about 25 points. Overall, he owns an 81 OPS+ against left-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, Refsnyder, hitting from the right side, is having a solid season overall and owns a strong platoon split himself. Sometimes the right process doesn’t yield the right results. Between the home run and the single, Yoshida was playing out of his mind on Tuesday.

The Royals chipped back into the game in the eighth inning, but were undone by three completely subpar plate appearances.

The offense in the frame was opened by Vinnie Pasquantino (who went 3-4 on the night with 2 RBIs) who singled. That was followed by a double by Salvador Perez with Pasquantino motoring around to third. Then, MJ Melendez fouled off four consecutive pitches, took a ball, and ripped a 1-2 splitter well below the zone for a two-run double. That cut the Red Sox lead to a single run. With a runner on second, nobody out and two runs already in, the Royals were cooking.

Next up was Hunter Renfroe.

Reliever Luis García started Renfroe off with a slider that was fouled off. He came back with a sinker that ran well inside. Renfroe hit a weak grounder to third for the first out of the inning.

Adam Frazier was up next. The first three pitches he saw went sinker, sweeper and sinker. Note the location of that second sinker.

Seriously. He laid off the first sinker and then offered at a 2-0 sinker that was even further off the plate. That is a dude in absolute swing mode. I’m not liking that approach in that situation. Not at all. I’m not such a revisionist that I would claim that the fourth pitch for García, another sinker, would’ve been in the same location had the count been 3-0. I’m fairly certain it wouldn’t. So it’s not like we can look at the chart and think he blew the chance to take a walk. What Frazier did was to give García a momentary reprieve. And then when he again had a favorable count at 3-1, he got more of a pitcher’s pitch (another sinker) and hit a harmless fly to center.

The final batter of the frame was Maikel Garcia. Red Sox manager Joey Cora went to his closer Kenley Jansen. Like Frazier before him, the at bat started off well enough with Garcia taking a first-pitch cutter for a strike before laying off two sliders that didn’t challenge the zone. On the first slider, Dairon Blanco, pinch running for Melendez at second, swiped third base without a throw. The tying run was 90 feet away.

The fourth pitch was another cutter that was a bit more elevated that Garcia fouled off. The fifth and final pitch was another cutter, even more elevated. Garcia couldn’t resist.

Blanco was stranded at third.

Seth Lugo’s curve was spinning on Tuesday. Literally. Lugo averaged an impressive 3,328 RPMs on his curve against the Red Sox.

A reminder: Among starting pitchers this season, only four currently throw a curve with an average spin rate greater than 3,000 RPMs.

I threw a couple of other stats in the mix to underscore just how good Lugo’s curve is in 2024. It’s worth 10 Pitcher Runs according to Statcast. He’s limiting opponents to a .148 batting average against the pitch and a meager .210 slugging percentage. Corbin Burns and Tyler Glasnow and Cole Irvin all throw good curves, but their offering isn’t as good as Lugo’s. Lugo has the best curveball in baseball this year. Full stop.

Let’s play guess the fielder based on these defensive run values:

Why it’s MJ Melendez!

It’s probably not fair to post Melendez’s defensive run values and include his 2022 season where he was behind the plate for over 575 innings. (It was shocking how poor he was behind the plate.) But damn if this isn’t some epic improvement. The plaudits will go to the guys who win the Gold Gloves or the Fielding Bible Awards but sometimes you have to acknowledge a guy who works at his craft and just improves.

Witness.

It’s difficult to tell from the GIF, but there was a moment where Melendez froze and actually shifted his weight back. That won’t help his other Statcast numbers like his jump, but still…Melendez recovered, didn’t panic and made the play. Even when the ball popped out of his glove after it hit the ground, he was steady and made sure he came up with the catch.

Central Issues

Twins 3, Cubs 7

New Cub Isaac Paredes hit a three-run home run with two outs in the first off Twins starter Pablo López and Chicago never looked back. Paredes added a run-scoring single in the third. Shota Imanaga went seven innings, striking out 10 while allowing just two hits, one of which was a two-run homer from Royce Lewis.

Tigers 4, Mariners 2

Parker Meadows hit a two-run homer and Wenceel Pérez hit two singles, drove in a run and scored another. Detroit starter Keider Montero threw six innings of one-run ball. Tigers relievers struck out six in locking down the victory.

White Sox 5, A’s 1

Andrew Benintendi hit a two-run home run as the Hapless White Sox snapped a 21-game losing streak. Don’t despair. A new losing streak will undoubtedly start tomorrow.

Diamondbacks at Guardians - Postponed

The two teams will play a “traditional” doubleheader on Wednesday. Hooray for “traditional” doubleheaders.

With the Guardians rained out, let’s look at the current Wild Card standings.

Dropping these first two games of the series puts the Royals firmly in the danger zone. Also, as mentioned, they have lost the tiebreaker to the Red Sox. Don’t forget, the genius of Rob Manfred means that Major League Baseball has dispensed with extra games to break a tie in the standings. No more game 163 if necessary. Now it’s the NFL model of head-to-head record. It’s probably worth noting that the Royals have six games remaining against the Twins—including three in Minnesota next week—and are currently 2-5 this season against their AL Central rivals. Not looking too great on the tiebreaker front.