One swing was all they needed

The Royals cap a successful roadtrip with another come-from-behind victory.

Ok, this is getting a little ridiculous.

Through the first eight innings of Sunday’s game against the Detroit Tigers, the Royals placed seven runners on base, either through a hit, an error or a walk. They could not bring a single one of those runners home. This was while the Tigers were operating with a cavalcade of relievers on the mound, four pitchers total in eight innings. One of whom, Brenan Hanifee, was making his second appearance of the year and fifth of his major league career. Another, lefty Brant Hurter, was making his major league debut.

And the Royals’ offense could do nothing. Nada. Bubkis.

Coming just hours after the Royals blew a 3-1 ninth inning lead and then saw the Tigers score three of their Manfred Men in extras along with one more run in a frustrating 6-5 defeat, Sunday’s game threatened to turn what had been a feel-good romp through Chicago and Detroit into a bummer of an ending.

But these 2024 Royals, man…There’s a calmness these days as they go about their business. Yes, they can be stymied for eight innings, but there’s still the ninth, damnit. Do not count these guys out until that 27th out is recorded. Only then can the other team exhale. Because if you let these Royals lurk, they’re going to seize the opportunity and kick your ass.

To close out the presumed victory on Sunday, the Tigers and manager A.J. Hinch turned to Shelby Miller. Miller, you will recall, was brought into Friday’s game—a marquee pitching duel between All-Stars Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans—after Skubal stumbled in the seventh. At that moment, the Royals held a 3-2 lead. They hadn’t been all that perturbed by Skubal, putting together strong plate appearances even though they struck out eight times. They knocked him from the game with back-to-back singles in the top of the seventh.

Enter Miller. He didn’t just throw gasoline on the fire. He flipped a lit cigarette into an ammunition depot. Single from Witt to load the bases. Single from Pasquantino for two runs. Wild pitch to score a run. Double to score another. And a single just for general punishment. In the span of four batters, Miller allowed both inherited runners to score and allowed two runs of his own. It was part of a head-spinning nine consecutive hits from the Royals. They scored six times, with Miller a part of all six runs crossing the plate.

After Friday’s carnage, did Miller appearing in Sunday’s game give the Royals that spark they so desperately needed? Perhaps.

Hunter Renfroe grounded a 3-2 center-cut fastball the opposite way for a leadoff single. With one out, Freddy Fermin also went to the opposite field, this one on an 0-2 pitch that caught far too much of the zone.

After Adam Frazier flew out to center, the Royals were down to their final out.

For their last shot, manager Matt Quatraro summoned MJ Melendez to pinch hit for number nine hitter Dairon Blanco. If you’re a pitcher looking to get out in front, the way to pitch Melendez is up. Either in the zone or out, it doesn’t really matter. An elevated fastball is his kryptonite. He just can’t resist and then, he can’t do much of anything with the pitch once he does swing. Overall this year, Melendez is hitting just .143 against pitches in the zone and elevated.

The key to the previous paragraph is that it has to be an elevated fastball. Pitchers don’t generally work Melendez up in the zone with offspeed or breaking pitches. He’s looking to swing at that higher pitch and is a guy who just can’t catch up to high heat. Although it’s not like he’s done damage on elevated pitches other than the fastball. There’s literally not enough of a sample of him attacking high offspeed or breaking pitches. He’s put six in play all year and hasn’t gotten a hit.

Given the problems Melendez has had with high heat throughout his career in general and this season in particular, I have no clue why Miller didn’t pump one of his mid-90s fastballs up. Instead, he came in with a split-finger at 87 MPH. It hung. Melendez swung.

Melendez stayed on that baseball and punished it. It seemed to hang in the air forever. An eternity as that ball needed to get over the wall. It was imperative. The difference between an outstanding 6-1 road trip and a very good 5-2 trip.

These Royals…they tend to drag out the drama, don’t they?

These Baseball Savant Win Probability graphs like this have become kind of familiar this year. I always enjoy bringing them over here.

Focus on that top of the ninth. Single, out, single, out…that’s the faint pulse that shows the Royals still had a glimmer of hope. The spike is the shock of the defibrillator bringing the team all the way back. They’re alive! Oh, they’re so alive.

Let’s take a moment to appreciate the swing Melendez put on that splitter. From Statcast:

Melendez’s bat speed of 78.8 MPH was a full six MPH faster than his average swing this season. Good thing, too, because according to StatCast, it had an expected batting average of just .250. The bat speed allowed Melendez to pull the ball to the right field corner. He hit the ball exactly where he needed to in order for it to leave the yard.

Here are all the batted balls from this year with a 39-degree launch angle and an exit velocity of 102 MPH.

Basically, pull the ball down the line or watch it settle into an outfielder’s glove.

Sometimes, perfection comes when you least expect it.

At that point, the only thing left was to get those final three outs and close out the game. With the Royals bullpen of late, even after adding a couple of arms at the trade deadline, that’s easier said than done. Sunday it fell to newcomer Hunter Harvey. An immediate save opportunity after blowing a two-run lead in the ninth on Saturday.

The collapse on Saturday was multi-faceted in that it was a combination of three different relievers along with that dastardly Manfred Man on base that allowed runs to score in the ninth, tenth and eleventh innings. Harvey’s performance was perhaps the most egregious in the ninth. Tasked with that two-run lead, he promptly surrendered a home run. The cushion gone, he then surrendered a pair of doubles, the second of which was to Javy Báez (hitting .179/.251/.293 this season with a wRC+ of 34). Kris Bubic had the 10th and gave up a two-out opposite-field double to plate the Tigers’ Manfred Man. James McArthur continued his rough stretch by surrendering a game-tying triple to Parker Meadows. He almost got out of it, thanks to an ingenious double play started by Witt, but he, like Bubic, couldn’t get that third out. In this case, it cost the Royals the game.

At this moment, if I were to build the Royals bullpen, I’d have Lucas Erceg closing games. Bubic would have the eighth if the opposition was rolling with a few lefties while Harvey would get the ball if the order was right-handed heavy. Sam Long would be in the mix there as well. If Harvey needs more time to get right, I’d go Long/Harvey in the seventh with Bubic strictly in the eighth. Of course, given the fact that we’re kicking around the names of two right-handed relievers and two southpaws, there are plenty of options to mix and match. You know that Quatraro and pitching coach Brian Sweeney will do that.

So it’s not like Quatraro set things up so the eleventh inning would fall to McArthur. The game was supposed to be over by that point. Twice! If you want to blame the manager for Saturday’s loss, maybe it would be because he brought Erceg in for the eights and Harvey for the ninth. Perhaps he should’ve flip-flopped them. It’s easy to second guess when the bullpen goes all Three Mile Island.

The most pressing issue at the moment is what to do with McArthur. He last pitched a clean inning on June 27. Since the All-Star break, he’s allowed 10 runs in five appearances and opponents are hitting .455 against him with two home runs. It’s just not working for him at the moment. If the Royals are intent on keeping him on the big league club, they have to throw him in low-leverage situations for a bit. Failing that, they need to get him to Triple-A to work this out.

The bullpen remains broken. They have to get this sorted and fast.

Harvey got it done on Sunday, striking out Báez to start the ninth. He allowed a single to Wenceel Pérez but then got Colt Keith to line into a game-ending double play, a liner smashed at 98 MPH off the bat to third baseman Frazier, who threw across the diamond to nab Pérez. It felt more like good fortune than design, but sometimes when the Baseball Gods offer you a way out, you don’t hang around and ask questions. Take the W and get the hell out of town.

Erceg had pitched in the two previous games and three of the last four. Still, I suspect he’s the next guy up for ninth inning opportunities.

The nine consecutive hits the Royals recorded in the seventh inning of Friday’s 9-2 victory tied a franchise record. It was previously done on May 7, 1980 against the Chicago White Sox. Here are the batters that day:

John Wathan - Single
Willie Aikens - Single
Frank White - Single
Bob Detherage - Single
Willie Wilson - Double
UL Washington - Single
Dave Chalk - Single
Hal McRae - Double
Darrell Porter - Single

I consider myself fairly well-versed in the history of this franchise and the name Bob Detherage caught me by surprise. He got into 20 games in 1980 and had 27 plate appearances as an outfielder. And that was it for his major league career. He hit .303/.333/.500 and was back in Omaha by the middle of May. After the 1981 season, he was out of baseball. Grist for your Immaculate Grid.

Entering play on Sunday, the Royals have hit a collective .214/.267/.318 out of the leadoff spot. The .214 batting average ranks dead last in the majors. The .267 on base percentage is likewise the lowest among the 30 teams. And the .318 slugging percentage? Yep. The. Worst. You’re going to be shocked to hear this, but the 60 OPS+ they’ve generated from the leadoff spot is the worst in the majors. Yes, even below the White Sox and the A’s. (Both teams check in with a 73 OPS+ from their leadoff hitters.) The Royals aren’t just last when it comes to production from the hitters at the top of the order, they’re so far in the depths they can’t even see 29th place.

Maikel Garcia, as you are aware, has received the bulk of the playing time at the top of the order this year. Only in July did manager Matt Quatraro look to get more production out of the leadoff spot. He’s still searching. Since the All-Star Break, here are the hitters Quatraro has used at the top of the order:

Adam Frazier - 6 games
Maikel Garcia - 4 games
Michael Massey - 3 games
Garrett Hampson - 1 game
Freddy Fermin - 1 game

Let’s see how they’ve produced at leadoff:

Frazier - Three hits in 22 at bats, all singles. One walk and seven strikeouts. A .136 batting average and .176 OBP.

Garcia -Six hits in 24 at bats. Hey, that’s not bad! That’s a .250 batting average. He’s also walked once, scored five runs and swiped three bags. He’s posted a .280 OBP.

Massey - Just one hit in 10 at bats, but it was a home run. He’s walked twice and scored both times. That’s a .250 OBP.

Hampson - Went 1-4 with a single and a run scored against the Diamondbacks.

Fermin - Saturday’s leadoff man took the collar, going 0-5 with a strikeout.

Fermin, as the leadoff guy, is intriguing and, even in this TrueSABR age, a bit out of the box. You can make the case for the guy as the second-best hitter on the team this season, especially with Salvador Perez cooling down after his torrid start. Among Royals with at least 200 plate appearances, Fermin currently owns the second-highest OBP on the team (.354) and fifth-best slugging percentage (.432). Overall, his wRC+ of 117 is just one behind Perez’s 118. If the plan is to give your best hitter the most plate appearances, a one-two punch of Fermin at the top and Bobby Witt Jr. right behind him is the way to go.

Except I’m not entirely sold that Fermin is that guy. Look, I love Fermin. I think he’s excellent in his role as a guy who plays roughly two-thirds of the time as either the catcher or the designated hitter. He’s exceptional at what he does and what he brings to this team. His presence on the roster allows Quatraro the luxury of rotating Perez out from behind the plate as much as possible.

I’m just not sure he’s a leadoff guy.

Look, I’m more than willing to be wrong on this, but some spots in the batting order aren’t just about a particular skill set; they’re a state of mind. Leadoff is certainly one of those spots. It takes a certain kind of guy to be successful as the hitter at the top of the order. I’m fairly certain that Fermin has never led off in his professional career.

Having written all of that, at this point as far as the leadoff spot goes, I’m for whatever works. You have to throw the whole plate of spaghetti against the wall to see what sticks. If Fermin shows the mettle to handle the top of the order, Fermin is the guy. Otherwise, it’s just a rotating band of hopelessness at leadoff. While I have my doubts about Fermin there, I know for certain that Frazier isn’t the guy. Hampson? Uhhhhh…no. We’ve seen what Garcia can do which is why the Royals are in this predicament in the first place. Hell, at this rate Paul DeJong and his .298 career OBP is going to get a chance, probably in the next week or so. But not before Hunter Renfroe!

I’d like the Royals and Quatraro to solve this problem, but I’m not certain said problem is solvable with this roster. Unless you take Witt-Pasquantino-Perez and move them en masse up one slot, I’m not sure what else can be done. Whatever machination of the lineup Quatraro sends out there, those three need to stick together because they’re unbelievably productive. (No, Witt-Pasquantino-Perez are not the best trio of hitters in a Royals lineup in franchise history. But that’s for another entry.)

Central Issues

It’s been a while since we’ve checked in on our friends in the AL Central. Shall we?

White Sox 7, Twins 13

The Twins cashed in back-to-back two-out walks and a White Sox error in the first to open the scoring. They poured it on an inning later with too many extra-base hits to count.

Credit to the Hapless White Sox, who actually scored seven runs. I guess. That’s the most they’ve scored in their last 20 games…all losses of course. This isn’t just a bad baseball team. It’s a colossally horrific dumpster fire of a baseball team. I kind of enjoy that.

Orioles 9, Guardians 5

Gunnar Henderson went 3-4 with his 29th home run of the year and Adley Rutschman drove in three as the O’s won both weekend games in Cleveland to split the four-game series. Josh Naylor clubbed a three-run home run in a losing effort.

For the playoff odds graph from FanGraphs, I’m reverting to an AL-centric look with the current division leaders removed from the equation while including just the teams currently above .500.

The teams that are currently in the Wild Card spots (Yankees, Twins and Royals) are looking good when viewed through the prism of the above graph.

The Royals, mostly through the largesse of those Hapless White Sox, have been the AL’s best team in the second half with 11 wins against just five losses. The second-best win total since the break is nine, with the Guardians, Yankees, Rays and somehow the A’s all off to a strong second-half start.

As we are now in Ichiro’s favorite month to be in Kansas City, the playoff hunt is officially on.