Projecting the Opening Day roster, version 1.5

If you're looking for clarity, you've come to the wrong place.

Last year, I dropped my first Opening Day roster projection immediately after New Year’s Day. A bold move that I chose not to repeat this year. I’ll ascribe that to the fact that this Royals roster resembles a jigsaw puzzle with a handful of edge pieces, too many that belong in the center and a couple that are missing.

That’s a metaphor to say projecting this roster is an exercise fraught with danger. Not because we don’t know the players. We do. At least I believe we do. We just don’t know the exact fit of said players.

Let’s begin with the pitching. There is some really fine depth here, which is something we need to credit to JJ Picollo. The starting rotation is quality and fairly well locked in, while there are a plethora of hard-throwing arms that will be looking for a spot in the bullpen.

Starting Pitching

Cole Ragans
Seth Lugo
Michael Wacha
Michael Lorenzen
Kris Bubic

The first four are set in stone. Done deal. Get it tattooed on your bicep if you so choose.*

*I am not responsible for your tattoo should the first four not be actually set in stone. You’re an adult. You make your own decisions.

When camp opened, the names in the hopper for the fifth starter included Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, Alec Marsh, Kyle Wright and Noah Cameron. Wright and Marsh have yet to throw an inning this spring. Cameron has had an extended look and has done ok, but still needs some Triple-A seasoning. That leaves Bubic and Lynch.

Both had success coming out of the bullpen last year for the Royals. Both are putting up solid springs to this point. I’ve always leaned toward Bubic in this battle because of where he was before his Tommy John surgery and his performance since his return has not deterred me in the slightest. Lynch, though, will not go without a fight.

Relief Pitching

Lucas Erceg
Carlos Estévez
Hunter Harvey
Carlos Hernández
Sam Long
Daniel Lynch IV
John Schreiber
Chris Stratton
Angel Zerpa

Do you count nine relievers? Yes, I count nine, which makes it 14 pitchers overall, which in baseball in 2025 is completely illegal. I’m hedging my bet. Allow me to explain…

Let’s start with the back of the bullpen. We know Erceg is a lock for the late innings. Harvey looks to be healthy after missing the last month-plus of the regular season and all of the postseason. However, I am wondering what’s going on with the fact he’s notched only one strikeout in three innings this spring. Estévez is a question mark at this point as he has yet to appear in a game as he’s dealing with a lower left back issue. He’s thrown a couple of bullpens, played catch, and is working toward getting on the mound in a game, which is good, but until he actually faces a live batter, he’s a question mark. At least there’s still plenty of time for him to get regular season-ready.

As for the rest of the bullpen, Zerpa is kind of that bridge guy between the starters and the back of the bullpen. He can also serve as a fireman against a tough left-handed hitter. Apart from a rough patch in August that ultimately saw him exiled to Omaha, the lefty turned in some good outings last year. He was nails in September after his recall.

Long and Hernández are out of options and would almost surely be plucked off waivers if the Royals didn’t keep them on the 26-man roster. Long was hit by a comebacker in his outing on Monday and was fortunate to escape injury. Both have had rough springs but neither really have to prove themselves in the Cactus League. The Royals know what they have and I expect them to bring both of them north for the start of the season. Unless in the last-minute annual flurry of roster moves as teams set their Opening Day rosters, the Royals are convinced they can sneak either through waivers. Seems a risk if they’re concerned about losing either one.

Schreiber is a lock and I have to believe Stratton is, too. I know you don’t want to hear this, but Stratton has looked good in his two appearances, striking out four in two innings. Yeah, yeah, yeah…the smallest of sample sizes, but that’s Spring Training, isn’t it? He’s throwing strikes and missing some bats. He’s in the mix…for now.

And then there’s Lynch. The question surrounding the loser of the fifth starter battle is how the Royals will accommodate him? Will he stay in Kansas City and throw long relief with the possibility of a spot start here or there? Or will he make the three-hour trek to Omaha to stay stretched out and on schedule as a starter? For the moment, I lean toward the latter. It just makes sense to have the presumed sixth starter ready to go once something goes sideways with the rotation. And something almost certainly will go sideways.

On the flip side, as Hoikus and I were discussing in the comments yesterday (it is safe—and encouraged—to read and participate in the comments here!), both Lynch and Bubic thrived in the bullpen last season. Bubic was more entrenched in Quatraro’s circle of trust as he was summoned into more high-leverage situations. Plus, they’re both lefties which would provide a little more balance in the bullpen, should they want it. My last comment was that I believe both Lynch and Bubic will get plenty of time in this rotation. Even in the comments I’m hedging my bets!

The guy on the list above I have the least amount of confidence in making this team is Hernández. If they drop the loser of the fifth starter battle in the pen, I think he’s the odd man out.

Whatever happens to the bullpen, this will again be a fluid situation, with relievers coming and going throughout the year. Of the eight arms in the bullpen on Opening Day in 2024, only two were on the active roster at the end of the season.

Let’s pivot to the position players.

Catcher

Freddy Fermin
Salvador Perez

Phew…Easy as you like. If you’re worried about depth, I guess the third-stringer would be Luke Maile, who was signed to a minor league deal last month. Fun fact: according to MLB.com, his nickname is Lukey Barrels.

Ok…deep breaths…The next couple of categories are going to be shambolic.

Infield

Nick Loftin
Vinnie Pasquantino
Bobby Witt Jr.

What? Only three infielders? That seems really suboptimal. Let’s keep going…

Outfield

Kyle Isbel
MJ Melendez
Hunter Renfroe
Nelson Velázquez

At least I have four outfielders, right? Still going…

Everyone else

Cavan Biggio
Maikel Garcia
Jonathan India
Michael Massey

I understand it’s my lot in life to try to make sense of this, but at this point, it’s anyone’s guess as to how to categorize the players. Or to pick the bench. Still, we need to sort through this.

Going around the horn, we know that Pasquantino and Witt are locks at first and short, respectively. If they’re in the lineup, this is where they will be on the field. Then the same can be said for Isbel, Melendez, Renfroe and Velázquez. Touch dirt? Not this quartet.

Then, there’s everyone else. We know Garcia, India and Massey will be making this club. We don’t know where they will be positioned. Garcia has played 2,400 innings of his big league career at either second, short or third. He’s played 1.2 innings in right field. Massey has played over 1,900 innings of his major league career at second. He’s played one inning in the center field. Last Sunday the Royals started with Massey in left and Garcia in center.

India has never played an inning at third above Double-A. He has never played the outfield. This spring, he’s made two appearances at second, two at third and two in left field. You make a prediction of where he’s going to play based on that bit of information.

While questions of how to categorize the players abound, the real intrigue here is about the bench. I currently have Loftin, Biggio and Velázquez making the team. Biggio has looked good this spring and can play first, second, third, left and right field. Loftin has seen time at first, second, third, short, left and center. These guys can, and will, play just about anywhere. That gives them plenty of value with third base and the corner outfield positions unsettled.

The guy I’m not sold on at this moment is Velázquez. He’s not getting a ton of time in games in camp (comparatively speaking) but he’s out of options. Also out of options is Nick Pratto who could be considered for that last roster spot, but I kind of doubt he’s seriously in the mix. He’s moved to the outfield (remember how the organization raved about his defense at first base?), but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that he was left in Omaha after Pasquantino was injured in September.

Another guy I have yet to mention is Dairon Blanco. He’s been limited to just three plate appearances due to tightness in his right Achilles. He still has options, so that, combined with the missed time in camp, makes him a candidate to start the year in Triple-A if the Royals decide to stick with Velázquez (or even Pratto) to start the year.

There’s also non-roster invitee Harold Castro, who is getting an extended look in camp. Like just about everyone else, he can play myriad positions. He’s on the outside at the moment and depending on if he has an opt-out date or not, will likely begin in Omaha.

Whew. Three weeks left in camp and still plenty to consider.