Calling my shot - 2025 edition

Baseball is back and so are my predictions.

When I hit the “publish” button and send this newsletter to your inboxes, there will be just hours remaining of the offseason. Hours! We did it, friends. We survived another winter.

Baseball is back.

To mark the return of baseball, it’s time for one of my favorite features: Where I make a complete fool of myself with some predictions of what we will see in the upcoming season.

Actually, sometimes I’m not so foolish.

Last year, for example, I wrote this:

I’m predicting a 20-win bounce for the Royals. I think I might be feverish.

The actual total I predicted was 74 wins, so I called an 18-win improvement. As you are aware, they won 86. You know what? I’m still claiming this as a win for me. Come on! I said a 20-win improvement, which for a team that lost 106 games the previous year is insane. We’re all winners!

Don’t worry, I still had plenty of misses: How about James McArthur leading the team in saves and Maikel Garcia being the Royals’ second-most valuable player? Lordy. Hey, go bold or go home, right?

The AL Central is a four-team dogfight

This is how I see the AL Central ultimately breaking:

What did you expect? This is a Royals newsletter.

I’m aware that it’s fashionable in some quarters to predict a bit of a fall-off from last season for the Royals. I actually think it’s understandable to some extent. They can’t possibly repeat the health and success of their rotation. And seasons like Bobby Witt Jr.’s in 2024 are the exception, not the norm, even for a great player. However, the bullpen is guaranteed to be better than last year. And the top of the order, now fronted by Jonathan India, looks formidable. Plus, there’s some depth lurking around the rotation for cover if something goes sideways. And Witt is great, damnit. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that JJ Picollo was not able to upgrade the outfield. If they miss October, that’s what we’ll be talking about.

The Twins rotation may lack the firepower that’s present at the front of the Royals starters and they certainly don’t have anyone like Tarik Skubal fronting their team, but they’re a solid bunch, one through five. And they probably have the best bullpen in the game. So, their pitching carries the day. I really can’t believe I’m writing this because, come on, it’s Minnesota. They didn’t sign a free agent until February. They didn’t make a trade of note all winter. Their front office and ownership just looked at last year’s team and said, “Nah. We’re good.” Also, Royce Lewis is already on the IL with a hamstring strain.

Detroit’s charge to October was one of the more enjoyable non-Royals storylines of the last season. I still don’t know how they accomplished that, given their rotation after the trade deadline was Tarik Skubal and a bunch of relievers. Their offense vibes a poor man’s Cleveland. It’s Riley Greene and then a bit of hope. I am interested to see how their infield gels with the addition of Gleyber Torres. There’s upside here, but is it enough?

Speaking of Cleveland, it’s difficult to wrap one’s baseball brain around what the Guardians did this winter, trading away the productive left side of their infield. Plus, the shine is off their starters. It’s crazy that a team that employs José Ramírez and Steven Kwan can’t figure out (or doesn’t want) to surround them with a strong supporting cast. Bringing in Nolan Jones and a 90-year-old Carlos Santana ain’t it.

And finally, we have the White Sox. Last year, I predicted they would win 54 games. How optimistic of me. If you haven’t heard, they’ve had five pitchers require Tommy John surgery this spring. Five! Their projected starting rotation to open the season is Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Martín Pérez and Shane Smith. Good luck with that, Chicago.

Jonathan India will score 110 runs

India’s career high for runs scored in a season is 98, set in his rookie campaign of 2021. Hitting in front of the trio of Witt, Pasquantino and Perez, there will be plenty of opportunities for India to come around and touch home. Hell, he might score 25 times alone on Pasquantino sacrifice flies.

Bobby Witt Jr. will go 40/40

I made this same prediction last year. It didn’t quite happen as Witt went into something of a stolen base slump. He also saw his power tumble in September for the second consecutive year. And he still hit 30/30 for the second consecutive season.

This year, he runs often and figures out how to pace himself to have enough left in the tank at season’s end. Yes, another season for the ages.

Cole Ragans will finish second in the AL Cy Young voting

I don’t know who will win the award (actually, I do…see my predictions for that further down), but there always seems to be someone who has this crazy season that catches everyone a bit off guard. Ragans will be steady and brilliant. The ace is the ace is the ace.

The Royals will have three starters in the All-Star Game

Witt will win the fan vote at shortstop. Ragans will get the nod as the starting pitcher. And Pasquantino will make the team as a reserve.

As for the rest of baseball, here is how I see the divisions finishing after 162 games:

AL Wild Card - Orioles over Mariners, Red Sox over Yankees
NL Wild Card - Mets over Braves, Padres over Cubs
ALDS - Royals over Orioles, Rangers over Red Sox
NLDS - Dodgers over Mets, Phillies over Padres
ALCS - Royals over Rangers
NLCS - Phillies over Dodgers
World Series - Phillies over Royals

Like I said, this is a Royals newsletter…but I can only go so far. Still, a 1980 rematch would be fun in a year when the franchise is celebrating the 40th anniversary of their first World Championship and the 10th anniversary of their second. George Brett! Mike Schmidt! Bring it.

As for the individual awards, they will look something like this:

AL MVP - Bobby Witt Jr.
AL Cy Young - Logan Gilbert
AL Rookie of the Year - Krisitan Campbell

NL MVP - Shohei Ohtani
NL Cy Young - Zack Wheeler
NL Rookie of the Year - Roki Sasaki

Not very exciting on the individual honors. I’ll still probably only get one right. You know the one.

Up next

Baseball! That’s what’s up next!

Tanner Bibee will start for the Cleveland Guardians, while Cole Ragans takes the ball for the Royals. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 CDT.

Play ball!