20 Comments
Oct 7, 2022Liked by Craig Brown

It sort of sounds like Cal Eldred was over seeing Paul Gibson's work? Which is just bizarre that he was empowered to do that, if that was indeed the case.

Good point about the clock ticking because so many prospects were graduated. Still, pitching can come quickly, more quickly than hitting, I think.

Expand full comment
author

I don’t think it was overseeing as much as they were on two completely different pages when it came to whatever pitching plan was in place. Basically, whatever Gibson was teaching to get the kids through the minors was ditched once they reached the major leagues. That’s why Gibson will have a say in the new pitching coach hire. As Picollo said, they have to be on the same page.

Expand full comment

Re: Gibson, what are we to make then of the minor leaguers saying they had to pull teeth to get access to the tools they needed in the pitching exposé from the Athletic?

Expand full comment
author

They clearly have to revamp the program. Picollo seems to have trust in Gibson to do that. I always felt that Moore had an outsize role in saying what players in the system (particularly pitchers) could do. We’ll see I guess.

Expand full comment

I guess my primary concern is what about anyone in the org’s résumé should give us any reason to think they should be capable of doing that? Who’s seen pitcher dev done right to be able to build off that experience? The org is very insular and has nearly two decades of nothing but failure on that front.

For that matter, are we getting ahead of ourselves in saying that hitting dev has taken a step forward? It seems like most of the prospects took a step back this year, and that the only clear success story right now looks to be Pasquantino. Witt’s approach is SUSPECT, and his roughly league-average production might just be the product of exceptional raw talent crushing mistakes and beating out infield singles more than anything to do with dev. Melendez was also essentially league average, so is that success or just staying afloat? At the very least, revamped hitter dev victory laps seem premature.

I guess unsurprisingly, I’m not convinced that A LOT MORE personnel don’t need to be replaced, and I’m still very concerned that Piccolo simply doesn’t have the professional experience (read: background of working in an organization who had any idea what they were doing in player development, especially w/r/t pitching) to suggest he’s the right person to fix this.

Expand full comment
author

I get it, but I’d point to Sherman and his experience in Cleveland as a good starting point. Also, if he wants that shiny new downtown stadium, he HAS to make sure his team is functioning at a competitive level. Sherman identified Picollo as his guy. Think of it as a three year long job interview.

Expand full comment
Oct 7, 2022Liked by Craig Brown

I often think Picollo (and Moore before him) have very different thoughts than fans do when the "Will you spend in free agency?" question comes up.

When they always say "No," I believe they're looking at it from the perspective that they aren't going to be able to compete for Carlos Correa or Trea Turner, which is fine. Then fans hear the "No" and assume it means they're going to do *literally nothing,* which is incorrect.

Anyway, all of this is to say I think we need to relax, see what happens, and enjoy the ride. The Royals have a lot of talent in place. Once they find the right strategy to solve the puzzle, the picture's going to come into full view quickly.

Expand full comment
author

Yeah, they’re not going to be in the market for the marquee free agents and they will use the market to fill holes even for next year’s roster, but the Royals do need to goose that payroll. There’s room there and, as I said in the post, if they spend wisely (something that Moore wasn’t really ever successful at) the path to contention looks a bit shorter.

Expand full comment
Oct 7, 2022Liked by Craig Brown

Absolutely, and I fully expect them to find a couple of trade partners and get involved in that middle tier of free agency like they have for the past 15 offseasons. I've worked in PR and advertising for too long to not spot clever messaging that gives them an out.

Great work as always, Craig!

Expand full comment
author

Thanks, Kevin...and yes on trades! I think that's an area where we're really more likely to see some action. Picollo seems more willing to part with players than his predecessor. We saw it at the deadline. I expect this winter to be very busy.

Expand full comment
Oct 7, 2022Liked by Craig Brown

As has happened almost every year since the Bob Gibson world series, once the postseason starts I'm blown away again by the quality of pitching.

Maybe Brady Singer at his best could hang with these guys. Nobody else on the staff, probably not even Zack, could do so. The new pitching coach likely has a long, uphill slog in front of him.

Expand full comment
author

I’m optimistic that once they get a program in place, we will see things move quickly. Sherman’s Cleveland experience includes watching an org develop pitcher after pitcher. I don’t think he has much patience on that front and will expect to see positive results almost immediately.

Expand full comment

As I listened to JJ drone on and on, seemingly endlessly, about patience and how long it's going to take to hire a manager, all I could hear was "we're going to sit back and let the other, more aggressive teams take their pick from among all of the managerial candidates out there. After that, we'll be happy to sort through the leftovers and take a long shot on someone cheap."

I fully expect almost all of the other managerial positions to be filled before the Royals finally hire their 7th choice and pretend like "this is the guy we wanted all along."

I look for that same process to play out when it comes to hiring a pitching coach as well.

Expand full comment

I don't think that's going to happen at all. Who knows if they'll get their first choice, but they've been working on this for *at least* the past two weeks. Matheny and Eldred have known they were going to be let go much longer than it appears publicly.

Expand full comment

I suspect that the difference in our perspectives comes from the difference in our ages (?) The Royals played their first game just a couple of weeks before my 10th birthday and I've paid close attention to their processes for hiring managers and coaches ever since.

I'm fully aware that there's relatively new ownership and management in place. I'm also fully aware that that has seemed to make no difference in the past. I'll respectfully stick with my original comments unless/until proven wrong. I fully expect at least five or six other teams to hire managers before the Royals start scrounging through the leftovers.

When Matheny was hired he was the 5th new manager hired that offseason. Does anybody really think he was "the one guy they really wanted"?

Expand full comment

I think it was clear from the moment Dayton hired Matheny as an advisor that he was the heir apparent when Yost retired. He was their guy. Didn’t work out, though I saw a lot of good things from Mike.

No doubt the Royals have made bad decisions a tradition here. We have new ideas in charge now. Hoping for the best.

Expand full comment
author

I'm with Kevin...The managerial searches take a lot longer these days, because like Picollo said, there's a lot more to the job now than even 10 years ago. Plus, the Royals will want to talk to several guys involved in the postseason. So they're going to have to wait on that. They may not get their first choice, but the young talent on this team makes this an attractive job. There are enough guys who look like good candidates (more on that next week) so even if they don't land their "first" choice, they should be able to get someone extremely qualified.

Expand full comment
Oct 7, 2022·edited Oct 7, 2022Liked by Craig Brown

Craig - I have great respect for your opinions, that's why I subscribe! But I also have great respect for the lessons I've learned from more than a half-century of experience and honest observation. Your comments notwithstanding I fully expect many, many other teams to hire managers before the Royals do. Ditto for pitching coaches. As always, the Royals will scrounge through the leftovers, take a long shot on somebody cheap and declare him "the one guy we were really hoping to get."

Does anybody really think that Trey Hillman was at the top of their list? Tony Muser? Tony Pena? The list can be extended almost indefinitely. (For that matter, how did it work out when they chose Allard Baird to replace John Schuerholz (sp?) as GM?)

If those disastrous managers were at the top of the Royals list, it doesn't say much for their decision-making acumen, does it?

As I mentioned before, I've observed more than once that changes in ownership/management have failed to lead to genuine improvements in decision-making. I'll believe that genuine, meaningful change has come when I see it and not a minute before.

Expand full comment
author

Thanks! I appreciate that. And understand anyone's reluctance to embrace what the organization is doing. The scars don't go away.

Although I will note that Hillman was one of those managers who was the "hot" target at the time. Baird was a respected baseball man who had to get approval from Dan Glass before he could make a move. For whatever reason, I have some confidence in Sherman. I could be wrong, but I don't think this is "business as usual."

Expand full comment

I agree with Craig here. We all feel frustrated with the Royals for not contending since 2018. But the Royals of today are about 10 million times better than the organization that hired Tony Muser and Tony Pena, and much better than the one that hired Trey Hillman.

I think it just takes time, and in time, everything will work out as it should. Allard Baird set the foundation for the team that won the World Series. Dayton Moore finished the job. Now it's JJ's turn to keep creating the story of the Kansas City Royals.

Expand full comment