Redemption at the break

The Royals thought about giving the game—and the series—away. Tyler Tolbert and Nick Loftin had other ideas.

It felt so familiar. It felt so tenuous. The story of the Royals first half of the season played out in their final game before the All-Star Break.

The Royals staked themselves to an early 2-0 lead through a John Rave double in the second inning that plated Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez. Perhaps a bit of a surprise that the Royals actually cashed in runners in scoring position. After all, they had gone just 1-17 with RISP over the first two games against the Mets, both losses. Naturally.

The score would remain 2-0 for the next six innings. That was due in large part to another stellar outing from starter Noah Cameron. The guy just continues to amaze. He limited the Mets to seven hits over 6.2 innings while striking out eight. He worked around a one out triple in the first. He struck out Juan Soto twice. He rolled up a pair of double plays to wriggle his way out of jams. He simply did Noah Cameron things.

Cameron was the guy who kept the Royals in the game while the offense continued to scuffle, but the story of the game would be a Nick Loftin redemption arc. With the Royals nursing that two run lead in the ninth inning, disaster struck. Ronny Mauricio led off against All-Star Carlos Estévez and hit a sharp line drive to left. It was scalded off the bat at 103 mph and Loftin, misreading the power on the drive, made his first step in. That was a fatal move as the ball carried over his head. Mauricio was into second with a leadoff double.

The next batter, Jeff McNeil pounded an Estévez four-seamer to the deepest reaches of the yard. Kyle Isbel was close to making the grab against the wall, but the degree of difficulty was steep and Isbel actually had the ball glance off his glove, a quarter-step too far. The baseball rolled around for a triple. The Mets were in business.

After Estévez got Brett Baty to ground to first for the first out of the inning, Jared Young, the ninth-place hitter in the lineup, lofted a fly to center. McNeil tagged up. Isbel came in to make the catch and uncorked a throw that crept up the first base line. Sacrifice fly and the game was tied.

God, the Royals like to live on the edge.

On Wednesday, as the Royals looked to sweep the Pittsburgh Pirates, the home nine coughed up a slim lead in the eighth inning. The game was tied in the ninth when Garcia and Salvador Perez led off the inning with singles. Loftin drove in the winning run with a single of his own. As I wrote at the time, the outcome was never in doubt.

Perhaps it was the better quality of National League opponent. Maybe it was how the first two games of the series went. Whatever the reason, I don’t believe I felt the same way about Sunday’s game.

These latest heroics were kick-started by an unlikely hitter: Tyler Tolbert. Tolbert was in the game as a right field defensive replacement for Jac Caglianone. With Caglianone’s power potential, the Royals have been reluctant to pinch hit or remove him from the game, even with his offensive struggles. Yet, it was a fortuitous move.

Pitching for the Mets was Sean Manaea, making his 2025 debut after missing the first three-plus months with an oblique strain and a loose body in his elbow. The lefty Manaea altered his delivery last season to become an extremely effective sidearmer. That’s a difficult matchup for any left-handed bat. It would seem an impossible matchup at this point for Caglianone.

Their previous confrontation ended in a strikeout.

I drop this here not to kvetch about Caglianone. It’s actually a decent at bat against a difficult lefty. Sweepers away and Caglianone spit on a close one to push the count to 2-2. That sixth and final pitch—a sweeper in—would freeze just about anyone.

Let’s get back to Tolbert.

The rookie, who has appeared in 23 games but collected just 12 at bats (and one hit), seemed to be the most unlikely candidate to ignite a rally. Yet he went with a 2-1 pitch to lace a line drive to right for a one-out single.

That’s a good piece of hitting.

The next step to a victory would be getting Tolbert to second. At this point of the season, we know the “move the line” method doesn’t work that often. It cannot be counted upon. Good thing Tolbert is a bit of a speed merchant.

You may recall from last week that I noted the Royals were the team that had allowed the fewest steals in baseball. The second fewest? The Mets. So this was a confrontation between the two best teams in the majors at controlling the running game. The Royals, to this point in the series, had gone 0-3 in stolen base attempts.

Tolbert got a great jump against the southpaw Manaea, who isn’t especially quick to the plate. That gave Tolbert enough of an advantage to get in ahead of the throw.

Two pitches later, Loftin provided another round of heroics.

Watch how Tolbert has to hold at second. The ball barely makes it over the glove of Mets third baseman Mauricio. It was hit just soft enough that it took time for the left fielder Brandon Nimmo to charge the ball. And Tolbert was fast enough to put the pedal to the floor to get around third and reach home ahead of the throw.

That was about as perfect as it comes.

The Royals walk off, 3-2 winners. They close out the de facto first half of the season with a 47-50 record.

Time to check in on Cameron’s Game Score table. Sunday was the eighth time in 13 starts he finished with a Game Score at 60 or better.

He matched a career-high with eight strikeouts. It was his fifth start where he did not allow a run. Through 70 innings, his ERA stands at 2.31.

Central Issues

Mariners 8, Tigers 4

Cal Raleigh did not hit a home run. He went 0-2 with three walks. Meanwhile…

Those are amazing.

Seattle swept Detroit, scoring 35 runs in their three-game series.

Pirates 2, Twins 1

Tommy Pham homered in the second for Pittsburgh and Byron Buxton, fresh off hitting for the cycle on Saturday, doubled home the tying run an inning later. The game remained knotted at one until the ninth. The Pirates loaded the bases off Jhoan Duran with three consecutive one-out singles. Spencer Horowitz drove in the deciding run with a ground ball fielder’s choice.

Guardians 6, White Sox 5 - 10 innings

Kyle Manzardo and Aaron Civale were traded for each other at the trade deadline in 2023. On Sunday, Manzardo hit a three-run home run off of Civale. That gave Cleveland a 4-3 lead. Andrew Benintendi tied the game with a home run in the sixth. José Ramírez untied it with a sac fly in the top of the eighth. Luis Robert Jr. tied it again with a run-scoring double in the bottom of the eighth. And then Steven Kwan won it for the Guardians with a sacrifice fly to bring home the Manfred Man in the 10th.

The Tigers kinda, sorta limp into the break with their longest losing streak of the season. The Twins closed out their half with a 6-3 homestand to edge ahead of the Royals in the loss column. Cleveland went 6-1 after snapping their 10-game losing streak. And the White Sox are still the White Sox.

Draft update

I cannot pretend to be an expert on the ins and outs of the draft. I prefer to let the prospect hounds do the sniffing, if you know what I mean.

The Royals had five picks on the first night of the 2025 draft.

1. Sean Gamble, 2B/OF
IMG Academy HS, FL
Round 1 - Pick 23

Gamble was ranked as the number 45 pick on the Baseball America draft board. ESPN had him at 35. FanGraphs at 60! So, a bit of an overreach as the 23rd selection? Maybe yes. Perhaps no. The first thing I think of when the Royals go for someone in the early rounds who may not have been, in this case, a first-round talent, is that they’re banking some of their bonus pool money for later rounds. They seem to do that quite a bit, and it’s usually a decent strategy. The second thing I think is that outside the consensus top 10 or so picks, there’s plenty of variance. So who really knows?

Here’s what BA has to say:

There’s athleticism, tools, bat speed and, while there are times when his swing can get out of control, there’s typically strong offensive performance.

And ESPN:

The most interesting thing about this pick might be that Kansas City announced Gamble as an outfielder -- not a second baseman -- when selecting him. If the Royals think that he can stick in center field, the upside of this pick suddenly becomes a lot higher.

The knock on Gamble is the swing can get a bit long and there’s a little too much swing and miss at times. But…athlete!

2. Josh Hammond, SS
Weslyan Christian Academy, NC
PPI - Pick 28

Hammond is the player the Royals got for Bobby Witt Jr. finishing second in the AL MVP voting last year. He’s a two-way player who put himself on draft radars first as a pitcher, but really showed something this year as a position player. The industry consensus is that, while he was drafted as a shortstop, he will slide over to third base at some point.

From BA:

Hammond entered the 2025 spring as one of the most talented pitching prospects in the class, and by the end of the spring he was viewed almost unanimously as a top-two-rounds talent as a position player. … If he wanted to pitch, he would likely fit in the first three rounds of the draft. But he prefers hitting and this spring showed why teams needed to take him seriously as an infielder and power-oriented righthanded bat.

And ESPN:

This spring, he slimmed down, got stronger and looked like prime Josh Donaldson, with 65- or 70-grade raw power.

Kiley McDaniel at ESPN loves, Hammond. If that wasn’t obvious.

Again…athlete! Seems like the high school version of Jac Caglianone. My bold prediction is that this will not be the only time that particular comp is invoked.

3. Michael Lombardi, RHP
Tulane University
Round 2 - Pick 61

Lombardi was a two-way player at Tulane where he played all four infield positions and dabbled in center field, hitting .273/.392/.453 this season. All together now…athlete!

The right-hander primarily features a fastball and a curve.

From BA:

Lombardi added more than three ticks to his fastball in 2025 and now sits around 94 mph and has touched 97. It has excellent carry and is at its best when located in the upper half of the strike zone. He pairs the fastball with an upper-70s curveball with great depth and 12-to-6 shape, and he uses it to get whiffs both in and out of the zone against both righties and lefties.

He’s had control issues in the past, with elevated walk rates at Tulane. The guy vibes reliever. Should you listen to me? Perhaps not!

From Keith Law at The Athletic, who had Lombardi at number 35 on his draft board:

He’s up to 97 with tremendous carry and pairs it with a power curveball with sharp downward break, showing enough feel for a changeup to see a future starter. He walked 12.5 percent of batters faced this year, a little too high, although that may come down if he’s given one consistent role. It’s a big upside play on a mid-rotation or better arm.

When in doubt, go with the bull over the bear.

4. Justin Lamkin, LHP
Texas A&M
Competitive Balance B - Pick 71

Lamkin features a three-pitch mix that goes fastball/slider/change. His control is his calling card as he walked just over five percent of the batters he faced this spring.

5. Cameron Millar, RHP
Alhambra HS, CA
Round 3 - Pick 97

A “helium” prospect who added a few ticks of velocity this season. Committed to Arizona.