Royals lead early, implode late
Dozier is heating up, the Royals defense is letting the team down, Ángel Hernández is confused and Salvador Perez has officially been named the patron saint of the newsletter.
It’s officially a losing streak.
Mike Minor started and pitched well twice through the Cleveland order. He got into a spot of trouble in the sixth as the lineup flipped over for a third time. And once again the defense and the bullpen contributed to a game getting out of hand. The Royals dropped their third in a row.
With the bases full and one out in the inning, Nicky Lopez failed to come up with a grounder that should’ve been good for one out. Instead, two runs scored. Cleveland tied the game the very next batter when Harold Ramirez drove a single to left.
After a scoreless sixth, trouble brewed in the eighth starting with a bizarre sequence from Josh Staumont to Franmil Reyes. Staumont jumped ahead in the count 0-2. And then continued to feed curves out of the zone. A double by Ramirez broke the tie and a single, a pitching change to Tyler Zuber and a Jake Bauer pinch-hit two-run bomb broke the game open.
Let’s not dwell only on the negatives from Tuesday. How about a little focus on a bat that’s getting hot?
Hunting for extra bases
All Hunter Dozier does anymore is hit for extra bases. He doubled twice on Tuesday to go along with his home run and triple from Monday. He could hit for the series cycle I suppose, but he just doesn’t seem all that interested in singles. Six of his last base hits have gone for extras.
It’s about time for Dozier, who has improved his batted ball profile big time from what we saw in 2020, but until recently hasn’t reaped the reward.
A couple of things stand out from Dozier’s Statcast percentile rankings for 2021. Start with his average exit velocity. Last year, Dozier was averaging 86.4 mph for each ball put into play. This year, it’s put to 91.9 mph. That’s almost a tick higher than his previous career-best, set in his breakout year of 2019.
Next, as you would expect, his HardHit% has improved dramatically. He’s hitting a ball harder than 95 mph 49 percent of the time this year. That’s about six percentage points better than 2019. He’s doing most of his damage against fastballs and offspeed pitches.
Why does that matter that Dozier has increased his Hard Hit rate? Historically, balls that are hit over 95 mph go for base hits more than 50 percent of the time.
Entering Tuesday, Dozier was sporting a .176 BABIP, an unfathomably low number. It’s even more mind-boggling when you fold that statistical nugget with the fact that Dozier has consistently been pulverizing the ball. His xSLG of .491 against his real number of .407 gives you an idea of what could’ve been if Dozier had just found some kind of batted ball luck in April.
He’s become a much more aggressive hitter. His overall swing rate is up to over 50 percent, up 10 percentage points from 2020. His chase rate is up, too. And you can really see his aggressiveness on his batted ball profile. As I noted last week, he’s become an extreme pull hitter, hitting almost half of his balls in play to the left side. Since a player’s power generally comes when he pulls the ball, it makes sense that given Dozier’s pull-happy approach that his overall exit velocity has increased.
With the increase in batted balls to the pull side, Dozier is hitting more on the ground. His ground ball rate is 47 percent, well above his 39 percent career average. That accounts for some of the lower BABIP, but it certainly doesn’t explain everything. In the last handful of games, Dozier has been hitting the ball in the air, without sacrificing the exit velocity. So by improving his launch angle, he’s seen positive results materialize.
From the files of you always see something new at a ballgame
There’s just too much to unpack on the Perez single in the third. I’m sure you’ve seen the play. With runners on second and third, Perez drove it to the wall in right-center. Merrifield scored easily from third, but Benintendi seemed confused and was caught between second and third and was initially called out. Third base coach Vance Wilson was seen on the replay pointing at second, as if Benintendi needed to tag before he could advance. Which caused Benintendi to basically stop in no-man’s land. There was just confusion all around.
Let’s just pick it up from where things got interesting.
After the umpires conferred, the Ángel Hernández-led crew decided that Benintendi could have third. Apparently, Hernández made an out call from shallow right field that sent everyone into a state of total bewilderment. After watching the above gif, you’re still probably a little confused.
Speaking of which…
Evergreen Twitter trend
A defense that’s become somewhat offensive
Get it?
The bullpen certainly bears some weight for Tuesday’s loss, but this games in this string of defeats share a commonality of defensive plays that weren’t made subsequently exploding into runs. On Sunday, Dozier failed to come up with a smash off the bat of Josh Donaldson that was a potential inning-ending double play. Five runs scored before the Royals could record the third out. On Monday Whit Merrifield sailed a throw to first as the pivot man on another potential inning-ending double play. Two runs later scored to tie the game.
And on Tuesday, Nicky Lopez couldn’t cleanly field a ground ball in the sixth inning with the bases loaded. Again, if the double play could’ve been turned, it would have closed out the inning. To be fair, however, a double play on that grounder was close to impossible. Still, Lopez had to field the ball cleanly to get at least one out. He couldn’t and Cleveland rallied to tie the game.
The Royals defense has been subpar to this point. According to data collected by The Fielding Bible, they are playing at -3 on Defensive Runs Saved, which has them ranked 23rd out of the 30 teams. The outfield defense with Michael A. Taylor and Andrew Benintendi has been solid. Those two are responsible for +10 DRS in the outfield. Even giving Jorge Soler playing time in right hasn’t hurt.
But the infield…That’s been an issue. Lopez, who performed so well last year at second base has looked smooth at times at short, but has put up a -5 DRS at the position. Merrifield seems to have developed a slight case of the yips on his throws and has been worth -2 DRS. Third base hasn’t been any better with Dozier and Hanser Alberto contributing -2 DRS.
It’s just another way the absence of Adalberto Mondesi has hurt this team. Put him back at shortstop and move Lopez over to second and Merrifield out to right and the defense up the middle immediately improves.
And now, a word from the patron saint of the newsletter
That’s just some impressive power from Salvador Perez. It was the longest home run of the Statcast era, measuring 460 feet. It beat his old record that he set last month by a foot. He’s like an Olympic long jumper pushing the boundaries of what’s possible.
Three of his top 10 moonshots have come this year. Five in the last two. I’d say he’s getting a little more pop these days.
Oh, the 114.2 mph exit velocity was also the hardest he’s ever hit the ball in the Statcast era by 1.5 mph. Mercy.
Minor moves
Normally, a minor league free agent signing at this point in the season wouldn’t merit a comment, but this isn’t just any kind of signing. Yes, the reunion tour rolls along as Alcides Escobar returns to the band, agreeing to a minor league deal. He will report to Triple-A.
I have to admit, Escobar hasn’t been on my personal baseball radar for some time. He spent 2019 in the White Sox organization, toiling away with Charlotte in the International League. He hit .286/.343/.444 in 405 plate appearances. Last year Escobar played for Yakult in the Japanese Central League, hitting .273/.312/.329 in 402 plate appearances.
I’m assuming this is just cover for the Storm Chasers. It sounds like Lucius Fox was injured in an alternate site game a week ago. So this is a mutually beneficial arrangement…Escobar gets a job and the Royals bring a familiar face back to the organization. There’s nothing deeper to read into this. Although it should be said that if Escobar makes his way to the major league roster, something has probably gone extremely wrong with the 2021 season.
Central issues
White Sox 9, Reds 0
There can’t be any dissatisfaction with Tony LaRussa after the Sox dominate the Reds in an interleague contest. Dylan Cease threw six frames of one-hit ball with 11 strikeouts. As a bonus, he went 3-3 at the plate with a run scored.
Tigers 7, Red Sox 11
Michael Fulmer started for Detroit and lasted two-thirds of an inning, throwing 33 pitches while allowing four runs. Alex Lange followed and he, too, lasted just two-thirds of an inning.
While the Detroit pitching was scuffling, their offense finally showed signs of life. Their seven runs scored was the first time the Tigers scored more than five in a game since April 14.
Rangers 6, Twins 3 — 10 innings
How about this for a fun stat? The Twins are 11-7 in regular, nine-inning games this year. They are 0-10 in seven-inning games and extra innings.
The Royals are no longer alone atop the division.
Up next
The Royals try to stop the skid against reigning AL Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber. No big deal. They counter with Brady Singer, making his first start since taking a shot off his heel in Minnesota. First pitch is 7:10.