Batting around—part 2
Wrapping up an in-depth examination of the Royals lineup.
Earlier today, I looked at the production the Royals were getting from the top half of their batting order. Click here to revisit that entry, along with a proper introduction.
It’s time to shine a light on how the bottom half has performed.
Batting sixth
Yuck.
With 46 balls in play this season, Dozier is hitting the ball harder than ever before. His average exit velocity is 91.1 mph, about 1.5 mph above his career average. However, as we’ve seen this month from the Royals as a team, the Hard Hit balls are nice, but placement matters. And that’s what’s killing Dozier so far in 2021.
For starters, he’s hitting more ground balls than usual. He currently has a 46 percent ground ball rate, well above his career rate of 39 percent. That’s fine. With the small sample these rates spring from, all it takes is a week of freeing the positive launch angle. What I find more interesting is that Dozier has become a pull machine. He has exactly one base hit in 2021 that has landed to the right of the second base bag.
For visual representation, here’s an evolution of his heat chart on batted balls.
Obviously, we’re dealing with a single month of sample size. It’s far too early to draw any conclusions; it would be foolish to project the rest of the season based on what we’ve seen so far. However, trends are there and they should be acknowledged.
As for the others hitting sixth, Michael A. Taylor is the only other Royal who has spent considerable time in the spot so far. He’s done better than Dozier, but still well below league average for the split.
Batting seventh
This is where Kyle Isbel opened the year. This is also where Benintendi is spending most of his playing time these days.
Benintendi is actually responsible for a move toward respectability for this spot in the order. In the last week, he’s hit in five of six games with a line of .350/.458/.550. Another reminder to not get too hung up on early-season struggles. It just seems like he’s taken a little bit of the pressure off himself, simplified his approach at the plate and the results are taking care of themselves.
Even though Benintendi’s production has responded by hitting here, that’s just three extra base hits from the seventh spot.
Batting eighth
This is where things start to get interesting. We’ve discussed how the bottom third of the Royals’ order has been very productive over the first month. Well, you just saw how the seventh spot in the lineup is doing. So that leaves the eighth and ninth spots for that production. They don’t disappoint.
This is the Royals best spot in the order, production-wise relative to the league. Hell, the overall .728 OPS is better than the .695 OPS they’re getting from the number three hitter. And they’re getting this production from a bunch of different players.
It’s mostly been the Michael A. Taylor show. Matheny moves him around—from sixth to seventh to eighth—more than any other player, and his best games have come from hitting eighth.
Batting ninth
Let’s bring this full circle. Like Matheny keeping Whit Merrifield atop the lineup for every single Royals game so far, Nicky Lopez has sole proprietorship of the ninth spot in the order. Aside from a couple of games where he was given a day off, and naturally, when the pitchers hit ninth in Pittsburgh, this is where you’ll find Lopez.
You hear a lot about a “second leadoff hitter” meaning a guy who can produce at the bottom of the order. That’s usually just wishful thinking. But in Lopez’s case, he is actually operating as that for the Royals.
Only the Yankees (with a revolving cast of hitters), the Braves (!!! it would seem that their pitchers can rake) and White Sox (courtesy Nick Madrigal) have gotten better production from their number nine hitter than Lopez and the Royals.
Lopez currently owns a 94 percent contact rate, the best mark on the team by far. He expands the zone as much as he has in the past, but has become much more selective about what he offers at inside the zone. He’s completely shifted his process at the plate. The result is a higher BABIP (currently .286), a walk rate that is maintaining around nine percent and—most importantly—he’s cut his strikeout rate dramatically.
The strikeout rate became a massive issue with Lopez’s game last summer when he whiffed in over 21 percent of his plate appearances. In April, he’s knocked that down to less than 11 percent. That’s a huge change and one that can’t help but pay dividends. There was talk a couple of years ago about Lopez adding some bulk so he could pick up some power and drive the ball a little more. That’s nuts. The hitter we’ve seen in the first 23 games of 2021…that’s who he is. Just grab some walks, put the ball in play and make things happen. So far, it’s working brilliantly.
A month into the season and it feels like we have yet to see the true Royals’ offense. If the fifth and sixth spots in the order can fire up, along with continuing above-average production from the cleanup and bottom of the lineup, they should continue to outpace the league average in runs per game.
Naturally, while there are plenty of positives and reasons for optimism, some warning signs have sprung up in various places. The main takeaway is that it’s still early. This is where the Royals are at this point. Adjustments will be made. Players will rotate. Production will change.
In April, the lineup was good enough, but it sure looks like the pitching carried a lot of the load. At some point, the pendulum will swing the other way. Let’s see what May brings.