The good, the bad and...Hunter Dozier

The Royals gave themselves a chance to get back into Thursday's game against the Blue Jays. Until they didn't.

In the eighth inning of Thursday’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays, the Royals had a 0.9 percent chance of winning.

After all, they were trailing 6-0 at the time. Six baserunners was all the offense they could muster to that point—four singles and two walks. Win Probability is a heartless beast, taking into account only the situation of the moment. It did not know, nor did it care, that the Royals’ offense to this point was lifeless, showing only occasional signs of breaking out, before rolling back over and remaining in a baseball coma.

For those of us watching, a 0.9 percent chance of winning at that moment felt absurdly high.

To open the bottom of the eighth inning, Bobby Witt Jr. came to bat as the Royals lineup flipped over for the fourth time.

The good

It was a typical Witt at-bat. He fouled off a good first pitch. He took one out of the zone. He looked at strike two. He fouled off a couple of changeups way inside and an extremely elevated fastball but spit on another just off the zone. In other words, he could’ve drawn a walk but he was still at the plate as reliever Trevor Richards prepared to deliver the eighth pitch of their battle.

Was it a home run? That was the call on the field. It’s always impossible to tell from live video with the ball hooking and bouncing back onto the field. The Blue Jays doubted and it was thrown to New York for a video review. In a moment worthy of CSI or Criminal Minds or whatever forensic crime procedural is currently airing on CBS, the video evidence is definitive. I do not have access to the video they’re viewing at the command center in MLB HQ. I do have the tools to conduct my own forensic analysis. This is what we all saw.

A home run!

Oh. Amidst the brutal start to 2023, we should take a moment to admire the strength to send a baseball on this swing 355 feet.

Unfortunately, it was, according to Win Expectancy, only delaying the inevitable. Preventing a shutout couldn’t even move the needle a percentage point. As MJ Melendez strode to the plate the Royals’ Win Probability was 1.8 percent.

Melendez has had a brutal start to the 2023 campaign. He has 12 strikeouts, which is tied for the most in the majors. In his battle against Richards, he was able to resist expanding his zone. He watched all six pitches he saw.

At this point, the Royals just need baserunners—even though they’ve been intent on squandering the few opportunities they’ve been presented thus far in 2023. It’s a good plate appearance from a hitter who is struggling.

There’s also value in avoiding an out. The Melendez walk bumped the Royals’ Win Expectancy to 3.3 percent.

Up next is Salvador Perez. We know how this dude loves to expand the strike zone. Hell, it’s not so much a strike zone as it’s a zip code. Yet, he still finds a way to make things happen. In this plate appearance, he rides with a Richards fastball off the plate to flare a single to right. It was 69 MPH off the bat. Melendez advances to third.

The Royals’ Win Probability was now 7.2 percent.

The Blue Jays turn to lefty Tim Mayza to stop the bleeding. He will face Vinnie Pasquantino. You’ll recall, we saw this matchup in the second game of the series when manager Matt Quatraro summoned Pasquantino off the bench to pinch-hit. In that at-bat, he went down looking at strike three. On Thursday, he laced a first-pitch fastball to right field for a single. The hit scored Melendez and allowed Perez to go first to third.

Four Royals had come to bat. They had yet to make an out and had cut their deficit to 6-2. Their Win Probability was at 13.4 percent.

Next, the only Royals regular who has been of any value offensively in this young season, Edward Olivares ripped a double off the base of the wall in left. Perez jogs home and Pasquantino advances to third. It’s 6-3 and the Royals still haven’t made an out.

After starting the inning with a less than one percent chance of pulling out a victory, with five consecutive hitters reaching, their Win Probability is 26.3 percent.

The bad

At this point, Mayza, who struck out all four batters he faced on Tuesday, had allowed both batters he faced to reach on run-scoring hits. The rules stated he must face a third batter. With lefty Michael Massey due up, interim manager Paul Hoover went to his bench for Franmil Reyes.

This is exactly why Reyes is on this team. He brings a certain right-handed thunder to this lineup. A hit can make it a one-run game. A home run can tie it. In his career, Mayza has allowed a .339 OBP with a .445 slugging percentage against right-handed batters. He’s a lefty specialist living in a Rob Manfred three-batter minimum world. This is a big moment in the game.

Reyes grounded to third.

The key pitch was obviously the first one. It was just off the plate. Or barely kissed the edge. It was a call that could’ve gone either way. As the Royals pitchers look to “raid the zone” we know the importance of that first pitch. By calling it strike one, home plate umpire Manny Gonzalez put his thumb on the scale and tilted the advantage to Mayza and the Jays.

Here’s how Statcast saw the plate appearance.

A borderline call. With the first out of the inning, the Royals’ Win Probability dropped to 18.1 percent.

At this point, Jays manager John Schneider couldn’t get out of the dugout fast enough to make his third pitching change of the inning. He would bring in the right-hander Yimi García to attempt to record the final two outs.

Hunter Dozier

The Royals had two left-handed bats on the bench in Nicky Lopez and Jackie Bradley Jr. Neither brings the pinch-hitting gravitas that someone like Reyes brings from the right side. They are not guys you summon when searching for that three-run bomb to tie a ballgame. Yet in this scenario, the dinger is simply a best-case scenario. It would be an amazing outcome but the more likely play is to simply get more runners on base. The old “keep the line moving” saw.

Why Hunter Dozier was allowed anywhere near the batter’s box at that moment is confounding. And maddening.

While neither Lopez nor Bradley exactly inspire confidence, they bring a helluva lot more to the plate than Dozier at this stage. Either one should’ve been summoned to pinch-hit to 1) regain the platoon advantage that was lost when the Jays made a pitching change, and 2) keep the bat out of Dozier’s hands in a critical situation in the game.

He chased the first pitch out of the zone and made contact to foul it off. He fouled off another before watching the third pitch for a ball. The fourth pitch was the exact same pitch in the exact same location as the pitch he took for a ball.

There is a range of outcomes in that plate appearance that could’ve been a positive for the Royals. A sacrifice fly. A well-placed ground ball. A weak ground ball. God forbid, a flare that dropped for a single. Anything would’ve been acceptable. Except for a strikeout.

Hunter Dozier struck out.

The Royals’ Win Probability dropped to 9.3 percent. It felt like zero.

The Royals still had an out to go. Nick Pratto was the eighth batter of the inning. He put up a decent fight, clawing back to a full count after falling behind 0-2 to start his at-bat. A wicked change sent him and the Royals packing.

The eighth inning was a microcosm of the Royals’ frustrating start to the season. They gave themselves an opportunity, then they flushed it away without even seriously challenging. They made a charge, but it was more of an annoyance to their opponents than a full-blown threat.

The Win Probability chart from Baseball Savant tells the story.

The Dozier at bat remains the key moment for me. The Royals could’ve made a move, but chose to ride with their veteran. Their commitment to him in the game and the season remains baffling.

The Royals are 1-6.