Dayton Moore and the delusions of mediocrity

The Royals' president of baseball operations says he isn't disappointed in 2022. He really should be.

In a season chock full of disappointment, the end of last week represented perhaps the nadir of 2022.

On Thursday, The Athletic ran a story with bylines from three former Royals beat writers asking the question we’ve all been pondering for quite some time, but particularly meaningful at this point in the rebuild, this season: What went wrong with the Royals pitching development?

The Royals will make decisions on their major-league staff this winter, but a survey of rival executives, coaches, player development coordinators, scouts and former Royals pitchers reveals a fuller picture of the club’s struggles to develop pitching — particularly homegrown starters. Rival executives wonder about the speed at which prospects reached the majors. Scouts question pitch usage and the implementation of data. Former pitchers lament development methods that felt too rigid.

It is, if you can’t tell from the quote I pulled above, a damning assessment of the Royals and their pitching development. More on that in a moment. We’re just getting warmed up…

On Thursday evening, the Royals were officially eliminated from postseason contention. Sure, they were unofficially eliminated when they managed just seven victories in April. Still, I like to mark the occasion. And that moment came on Thursday.

On Saturday, the Royals needed to clear a spot on the roster for Edward Olivares, who was set to return from his injury rehab assignment with Omaha. The corresponding move was the demotion of Nick Pratto to Triple-A.

Pratto has struggled in his time in the majors, hitting just .184/.271/.386, good for an 82 wRC+. While strikeouts have always been part of his game (and something that has given prospect hounds pause while evaluating him and projecting him at the highest level), he’s whiffing in an alarming 36 percent of his plate appearances.

But the timing is just…odd. There are nine games left in the Storm Chasers season. What is to be accomplished in Omaha over the next week and a half? Mike Matheny had this to say:

“If guys aren't going to get the work that they need here, if they're not going to get the reps, and we can get them the reps in Triple-A, then that's what we need to do for them.”

I guess the spreadsheet didn’t have room for Pratto.

A follow-up question should’ve been, why won’t Pratto get the work he needs while with the big club? Sure, the numbers are ugly, but Matheny makes it sound like Pratto wasn’t getting any playing time. He was, but just wasn’t performing. So why not say that? I just don’t understand the pretzel logic we hear so often from management.

Then on Sunday, Dayton Moore was asked during his weekly appearance on the Royals radio network if he would like to respond to The Athletic article about the failure of the Royals to develop pitchers.

Whoo boy. Did he respond. It was not a good look for the Royals’ president of baseball operations.

Anytime somebody does something anonymously, first of all, I think it's disrespectful, (it) lacks integrity and I think most of those comments come from somebody criticizing simply with a critical spirit, and they want to kick people when they're down, so to speak.

Oh! We get a return of one of Moore's staples, the “critical spirit.” I don’t think I’ve heard that since the First Process was in full swing.

Also, spare me the horseshit about anonymous quotes. Read Rosenthal, read Stark, read Gammons…All these guys rely on sources who, for obvious reasons, wish to remain in the background. They allow reporters or columnists to quote them, but because they work in the industry, often for other clubs, they choose not to be identified. This is true when someone is criticizing another organization, and it’s true when these rival scouts or executives praise another team. It’s not disrespectful and it doesn’t lack integrity. It’s how the business functions. And Moore knows this. I wonder if he’s ever been one of those nameless “AL executives” you’ll encounter from time to time.

Yes, the Athletic article was full of anonymous sources (although I’m fairly certain we can make a very educated guess on the “former pitcher who left the organization in 2021 (and) told an instructor from his new team that the Royals’ methods didn’t lend themselves to the individual.”) because that’s how you get scouts and other executives to give an assessment. Do some of them have an axe to grind? It’s possible, but it’s the job of the writers to suss that nonsense out. I think they did a solid job of asking a simple question along the lines of “what’s wrong with the Royals’ pitching development” and then sorting through a variety of answers. The results we’ve seen from this front office, over their entire history in charge, not just from The Process 2.0, mean those replies are not going to be complimentary.

For Moore to open with the critical spirit comment while hammering the people quoted in the article is quite ironic.

Of course, we had a lot of people in the organization disappointed in that piece because it wasn't factual, and it left out a lot of important things that, I think, speak to the upside of where we are and where we're going with our pitchers.

Moore has moved on from the critical spirit to accusing those quoted (along with the writers) of lying. That’s what “it wasn’t factual” means.

It would’ve been nice if the initial question hadn’t come from someone on the Royals’ payroll because the obvious follow-up here would be, “What wasn’t factual about the article?” If a well-sourced article contains layers upon layers of damning information and opinion based off said information, I’m going to need something more than “It’s not true!” as a rebuttal.

Otherwise, I’ll just go ahead and believe it.

I think the two quotes from Moore reveal the enormous pressure he’s found himself under this season. From the heightened expectations coming into the season to the fisaco of leadership on the vaccine issue to now the national media shining a light on the organizational failures, it’s been a helluva year for Moore and his front office. This isn’t 2011 when he had a full ally in the ownership suite in David Glass. A new owner means a new reality. While it sure feels like nothing has changed (ahem) within the organization, I would be surprised if Moore had the same level of comfort at this stage with John Sherman as he had with the Glass family.

My opinion (and hardly disrespectful or lacking in integrity since my name is at the top of this) is that Moore doesn’t handle pressure very well. He’s fortunate he’s in Kansas City where the market lacks that particular critical spirit element.

Now that he’s encountered criticism on a national stage he’s striking back like he’s trapped in a corner. He does it by lashing out, pointing fingers and insisting things we read aren’t true. A leader who is short on credibility at this point loses even more when he reacts in this manner.

I mean…what in the world is he talking about when he mentions the “upside of where we are” in relation to the pitchers? Check out where the Royals’ pitching has ranked this year in several basic categories:

Starter’s ERA - 4.69 - Rank: 27th
Reliever’s ERA - 4.66 - Rank: 28th
SO/9 - 7.53 - Rank: 27th
BB/9 - 3.78 - Rank: 29th
K% - 19.0% - Rank: 29th
BB% - 9.5% - Rank: 29th

I’m squinting…Where, exactly is the upside?

Sometimes, an honest assessment of the mess you’ve put yourself in would go a long way. Acknowledge the issue and outline some steps on how you’ll fix it.

Moore’s answer was amazing in that every sentence seemed to double down on the previous one.

The time that we have with these pitchers, the growth that we're seeing, and I don't think anybody who watches this game and understands this game, feels like that our pitchers have peaked out.

Upside…growth? Really?

There are myriad ways to measure progress on a rebuilding team. Wins and losses are one way, but it’s not always a linear path from also-ran to contender. Sometimes you can build upon individual success stories of key contributors. You could argue, if you were unaware of how the pitching had performed in 2022, that the increase in losses is a byproduct of jettisoning veteran bats in the middle of the season and choosing to pretty much go all in on playing the kids.

Except you can tell from the rankings above that that hasn’t exactly been the case. Yes, the hitting has struggled this summer. But the pitching has shown an alarming lack of development, save one starter.

Here’s the class of 2018 and how they’ve done from 2021 to 2022.

It’s a simplistic comparison with ERA along with strikeout and walk rate. It’s also quite imperfect given that Jackson Kowar has only thrown 15.2 big league innings this year. Jonathan Heasley tossed just 14.2 innings last year.

Still, outside of Singer (who has been phenomenal since his return from Triple-A) where is the progress? I suppose you could point to Daniel Lynch and say that he’s made something of a stride forward. While I remain bullish on his future, he just hasn’t put it all together for any kind of consistent stretch of success.

The article from The Athletic rightly notes that it’s incredibly difficult to develop pitching, especially starters. The acronym TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect) has traction in reality. I always figured that of the four collegiate arms the Royals selected in the first 40 picks of the 2018 draft, they would be fortunate if two developed into mainstays in the rotation. Injuries happen. And sometimes the ceiling is a bit lower for some prospects than you would’ve hoped.

Singer is one success. As I wrote, I believe Lynch has a chance to be another. That would be a decent return on that draft. Really! But this delusion that there’s a ton of upside and bright days ahead for the entire group of young arms just isn’t helpful. Nor is it truthful.

It’s insulting when you’ve spent an entire year watching a staff collectively stink it up and then hear from the architect that everything is not only fine, it’s totally awesome.

The focus of this article thus far has been the draft class of 2018. But what about Brad Keller who is now in his fifth season where he can’t stay in the rotation for the entire year? He’s been a disaster as a reliever. Carlos Hernández looked promising in 2021. He’s now a question mark moving forward. The bullpen outside of Scott Barlow and Dylan Coleman has been sometimes underwhelming, other times abysmal. It’s a depressing collection of pitchers.

There is simply no way pitching coach Cal Eldred can return. The statistics don’t lie and you can’t twist them into some kind of positive. The Royals’ pitching hasn’t improved an iota over the course of the season and it is among the worst staffs in baseball. Moore and JJ Picollo like to talk about accountability. There has to be a reckoning on the pitching side like there was with the hitting back in May.

The successes of Singer, Barlow and Coleman should not be enough to save Eldred’s job.

My takeaway from The Athletic article is that things haven’t really changed since the early days of Moore’s tenure in Kansas City. Recall that as the Royals were consistently picking early in the draft—and failing to develop pitching—the knock on them was that their pitching program was far too rigid. They reportedly resisted techniques and trends many young pitchers were wanting to embrace to advance their careers. Instead, the Royals went with a one-size-fits-all cookie-cutter approach that was, by any accounting, an utter failure. There was also that moment when Dylan Bundy told the Royals (and the Pirates) that he didn’t want to be drafted by them because they didn’t allow their pitchers to long-toss between starts.

The Royals have evolved in that they do deploy data and possess much of the technology used by every other team in the majors. But it appears they still are searching for how to unlock that data and technology. It’s not worth much if you don’t know how to use it.

They’ve moved with the times but still lag incredibly far behind their competition.

Whose fault is that?

Back to Moore, who finished his answer that made absolutely no sense to anyone grounded in reality.

They feel like there's strong days ahead of them and a great future with this group, and they're going to help us win a lot of baseball games. We're not disappointed one bit. We are really excited about where we are, where we're going.

(Thank you to Josh Vernier of 610 Sports who transcribed the quote.)

Damn if the above quote doesn’t read like he’s revisiting “In a small way, it feels like we won the World Series.” Is there an executive who’s held on to his job for the length that Moore has with the Royals who has been so completely tone-deaf? The Royals are going to lose more than 90 wins one year after they //checks notes// only lost 88! Hell, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they’ll finish with 100 losses. For this team to have gotten worse in a year’s time with a full additional season of pitching development supposedly under the belt, that’s incredibly damning.

Moore is not disappointed in this?

I wonder if his boss is.

I’ve been steadfast in thinking that while the Royals will engage in some necessary cleansing this winter (think manager and pitching coach for starters), Moore’s position within the organization was safe. Now? I’m not quite as sure.

Sherman has remained in the background since taking over ownership. It still feels like we know little about how he will run this team. The one thing we do know? He wants to develop a little corner of downtown Kansas City with a new ballpark. In order for that to happen Sherman will need to have the support of the community which means the Royals will either need to be competitive or they’ll need to show progress toward that goal.

Do you know who’s been disappointed with this? How about the fans? With six home dates remaining in 2022, the Royals are averaging 15,933 fans per game. They averaged 14,316 last year with Covid restrictions in place for the first couple of months. While TV ratings continue to be strong, they need to get fans into seats. And right now, upside be damned, that’s not happening. There’s apathy around this club. Moore won’t like to hear this, but he’s responsible for that.

Moore is failing the Royals. He’s doing this by

• hiring a manager who is a poor fit for a club with young players.

• hiring a pitching coach out of his depth with a developing, major league staff.

• overseeing a pitching program that reportedly resists the developments in biomechanics and data.

That’s just a short list. There’s plenty more. Since the Royals won the World Series in 2015, their record is 436-581, a .429 winning percentage. That’s 27th out of 30 teams in that span.

If you’re going to give Moore credit for the World Championship, you have to give him blame for what’s come after.

On Sunday, Bubic started against the Red Sox. He allowed five runs on seven hits in 2.2 innings. Hernández allowed three baserunners in two-thirds of an inning, two of whom scored. Collin Snyder and Luke Weaver combined to allow six runs over the final three innings.

What was that again about not being disappointed and the upside of the pitching staff?