Royals come up short in the opener

It was a beautiful day for a ballgame. Cole Ragans did his part. The offense came up short.

Opening Day tilts are always enjoyable because they generally feature the aces of both starting staffs. That was certainly the case on Thursday when the Royals sent Cole Ragans to the mound to square off against Pablo López. Not only are both pitchers among the cream of the AL Central crop, they are both expected to be in the mix six months from now when the AL Cy Young ballots are counted.

Ragans did not disappoint. He walked three batters (one an intentional ball four after going to 3-1 against Carlos Santana in the third), allowed five hits and struck out nine over six innings. That doesn’t necessarily sound dominant, but I’m not sure how else to describe it.

All nine of Ragans’ strikeouts were swing and misses. Roll call!

Slider to Carlos Santana
Slider to Max Kepler
Slider to Kyle Farmer
Fastball to Willi Castro
Slider to Ryan Jeffers
Fastball to Willi Castro
Changeup to Manuel Margot
Changeup to Byron Buxton
Curveball to Max Kepler

It’s difficult to pick a favorite. There isn’t a wrong answer. Looking back through all these, I did find myself enjoying the slider to Kepler.

That’s just rude.

There was also the second strikeout on Castro. Both came on the four-seamer. The first one was right down the chute. As for the second…Look at this location.

That was on a 1-2 pitch. In the plate appearance, Castro had previously seen a curve, a cutter, a change and then a slider that he had just fouled off. Then here comes a 97 MPH heater that is going to be too close to take with two strikes. Yet the previous five four pitches had clocked in between 80 and 90 MPH. Castro has less than a second to make a decision…swing or take. And neither option is enticing.

Just a devastating sequence.

In all, Ragans recorded 20 swings and misses on Thursday. For a little perspective, here are his top four swing-and-miss games from last year.

22 vs the White Sox on 9/4
18 vs the Red Sox on 8/7
18 vs the Astros on 9/16
18 vs the A’s on 8/23

He was just two off his career high. Safe to say Ragans is in midseason form.

The pitch chart on those whiffs is one of those “Hang it in the Louvre” masterpieces.

Four-seamers up, sliders down and completely out of the zone and changeups trailing down and away against those right-handed batters.

The only mistake Ragans made all afternoon came on an 0-2 pitch in the first inning to Royce Lewis. It was a belt-high 98 MPH four-seamer just on the inner half that Lewis was clearly hunting because he turned on it and sent it into orbit. It was some good hitting to be sure, but it was a bad pitch in a bad location from Ragans. Hey, nobody’s perfect. If you’re going to miss, miss with nobody on base and two outs.

It was a fantastic first start of the year for Ragans. The Twins lineup is really good. Other than leadoff man Byron Buxton who was in ambush mode early in the game, the Minnesota nine was intent on grinding out at bats. This is a tough lineup. There were a few times where I was a little concerned about how things were going for Regans, but the dude showed his mettle and navigated any potential issues.

Yep. He’s still a Dude.

The Royals opened the last year against the Twins as well and it took them 20 innings to tally their first run. A year later…It took just one batter.

Maikel Garcia did the damage against Pablo López on a hanging 1-1 slider.

I wrote about Garcia ahead of Opening Day as my pick for the Royals’ Player of the Year (non-Bobby Witt Jr. division) and damn if he didn’t make me look good three pitches in. I appreciate that. One of the facets of Garcia’s game that I noted in that post as a key to his future success was going to be his launch angle. His first inning home run left the bat at 30 degrees and 99.2 MPH.

I’ll remind you that Garcia had an average exit velocity last year of 91.8 MPH, which trailed only MJ Melendez for the highest on the Royals. His home run on Thursday…was the third-hardest hit ball off his bat.

This graphic is just silly. Garcia was pulverizing the baseball.

The flyout in the sixth was almost identical as far as the metrics as his home run, except it was lofted to center field instead of left. Then the liner he scalded for an out in the eighth was the hardest ball he hit all afternoon. And check those xBA numbers above. Again, the lowest xBA of the three balls he put into play came on his home run. Baseball, man.

It’s insanity to read too much into one baseball game but it’s the opener and we’re all still giddy that baseball is back, so I’ll just say that this is a very promising start for Garcia. He was unfortunate not to have another hit.

The first batter of the season clubbing a home run would generally fall into the category of a “good omen” as my grandfather would say. Alas, the Royals were facing López who was very much on his game. The Royals could only put four more runners on base, two reaching via doubles. The Royals’ best chance to add to their run total came in the second when Melendez led off with a double—which at 112.9 MPH off the bat was the hardest-hit ball of the day for you fellow Statcast nerds. Alas, Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier couldn’t advance him and Nelson Velázquez ended the frame by striking out.

It was a familiar outcome to be sure, but I can’t stress enough how good López was. Still, it has to be said the Royals went up there hacking. The right-hander threw 37 four-seamers and the Royals swung at 58 percent of them that were out of the zone. That enabled López to rack up 12 whiffs on the pitch.

You’re not doing yourself any favors by expanding the zone against the four-seamer like that, especially against a pitcher like López. He was in absolute command all afternoon. The only other time the Royals really threatened was in the fifth after a leadoff single from Adam Frazier. He was erased on a double play when Velázquez expanded his zone on a 3-1 pitch and was jammed on a sweeper. That’s a pitch he shouldn’t be offering at in that situation.

Witt had an interesting day, didn’t he? A defensive gem. A double. A couple of strikeouts. And then a key walk to open the ninth. That’s the moment I was probably the most impressed with. Witt knew the Royals needed a baserunner and did everything he could to get on base. You have to like that.

I thought Vinnie Pasquantino was pressing a bit, which is understandable given how his season ended early last season. Probably a bit of Opening Day nerves at play, but he really expanded his zone. Three of the four balls he put in play weren’t strikes.

There are two purple dots overlapping just above that called strike out of the zone. Pasquantino’s day was three ground ball outs, plus a harmless pop fly out. None of them were hard-hit.

That said, the top half of the lineup Matt Quatraro sent out is really solid, even if the results didn’t fall in the Royals’ favor. Garcia, Witt, Pasquantino, Perez and Melendez can make things uncomfortable for opposing pitchers. I also like how Quatraro managed in the later innings when it was a one-run game. There are only four guys on the bench, which limits some movement, but Q went aggressive bringing in Dairon Blanco to pinch run for Kyle Isbel in the eighth with two outs.

Blanco didn’t seem especially comfortable, though. Brock Stewart flashed an aggressive pickoff move, coming close to getting the out. Blanco did break for second on the next pitch, but didn’t get a great jump and the pitch was fouled off by Garcia. On the next offering, Garcia lined out, ending the inning.

Isbel isn’t a slow runner, but Blanco has elite speed. It’s too bad he wasn’t able to be deployed until there were two outs. If he had the opportunity to get in the game with one or no outs, he could have really brought some havoc to the situation. Still, I like the move to leverage your best situational players in the moment.

Nick Anderson, Angel Zerpa and Chris Stratton provided the relief innings behind Ragans. Zerpa found himself in a mess after giving up back-to-back singles to open the eighth but kept his composure and got an infield fly followed by back-to-back strikeouts, both looking. A nifty little highwire act.

Stratton wasn’t as fortunate. After allowing a leadoff single and recording an out, his command abandoned him as he walked consecutive hitters. A wild pitch brought in an insurance run and then Carlos Correa delivered a chopped single for the final margin. Correa had himself a ballgame, going 3-4 with a double and a pair of RBIs. If he’s back on his game, the Twins feel unstoppable.