They're in! The Royals clinch a spot in the postseason

The boys are poppin' some Champagne.

In one of the most improbable turnarounds in the history of the game, your Kansas City Royals, losers of 106 games last year, have clinched a spot in the 2024 postseason.

The gap is too large. The job is done. While the Royals dropped Friday’s game by a score of 3-0, with the Minnesota Twins losing to the Baltimore Orioles 7-2, the Royals can no longer be caught.

The magic number is zero.

The Royals will be playing baseball in the postseason.

When the season opened back in March against those same Minnesota Twins, the Royals dropped two of three and the gap between the teams seemed massive. The Royals were expected to improve over their last season—how could they be worse? The Twins were the prohibitive favorites to win the AL Central. Then as the season unfolded, two things quickly became clear to those of us who watch this fantastic game on a daily basis. One, the Twins were nowhere near as good as people assumed they would be. And two, the Royals were much, much better than anyone expected.

I received an email the other day from one of the Vegas sports books, reminding me of the over/under win totals they posted before the start of the season. They had the Royals on the books for 74.5 wins. I remember when I saw that total, that if I were a betting man, there would be no way I would take that action. It just felt too on the nose. When the club departed Surprise, I thought somewhere in the neighborhood of 72 to 76 wins felt about right. Even that would represent an incredible turnaround from where they finished the previous season.

I did not see this team making the postseason. Did anyone? Amazing.

It’s worth remembering the Atlanta Braves were going to be a formidable opponent in this crucial, final series of 2024. They entered play Friday with unfinished business of their own, a game out of the NL Wild Card hunt, chasing down both the Mets and the Diamondbacks. They have everything to play for. Plus, they have a couple more games to play after Sunday due to having two games washed out thanks to Hurricane Helene.

The Braves are similar to the Royals in that they have reached this point in their respective seasons on the back of their starting rotations. Both teams have posted 16.5 fWAR from their starters, tied for the best in the majors. Both teams have guys who will receive Cy Young votes. Had the rotations aligned properly, this could be a riveting (and low-scoring) series. Max Fried took the mound on Friday. According to fWAR, he’s the third-best pitcher on their staff. Fried has a 3.42 ERA on the season and whiffs 8.5 SO/9. He was at his absolute best on Friday, holding the Royals to just two hits and a walk through the first eight innings.

The Royals countered with Brady Singer. Singer, after a stellar first half, has really scuffled in the last couple of months. His ERA since August 5 entering the game was a gaudy 5.92. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact he’s pitched a career-high in innings.

Batters are really feasting on his sinker and his slider, his two primary pitches. The hard-hit rate on those two is as high as it’s been all season in September. The spike in the success opposing hitters are having against his slider is troubling.

Home runs have been an issue as well. He gave up four in his last start. The long ball got him on Friday. Singer jumped ahead of Sean Murphy with a runner on first. On an 0-2 pitch, he delivered a sweeper that caught a lot more of the plate than he probably intended. The ball barely cleared the wall in left, but it was enough.

Awww…It’s impossible to care about Friday’s game. Not after what followed.

The Royals have become the first team in major league history to lose 106 games in one season and play in the postseason the next. I’m going to give tons of credit to owner John Sherman and his group. They made a commitment in the offseason to improve this baseball team, something that should be a given in sports, but these days, it’s anything but. The Royals spent $110 million in free agency last offseason. I’ll repeat that because it will always be astounding to me: The Royals spent $110 million in free agency last offseason. Sherman boosted payroll to levels not seen since 2018, giving the green light to JJ Picollo to go out on the free agent market to fill the gaps.

Speaking of Picollo, what an offseason he had. Hell, his run of transactional brilliance started the year before when he acquired Cole Ragans for Adolis Chapman. He kept striking pitching gold on the free agent market. Seth Lugo. Michael Wacha. A liability was suddenly an asset. The best rotation in the game.

That rotation is the backbone of this team. They have kept so many games close. Manager Matt Quatraro had leaned on those guys. And credit to Quatraro. He’s the right guy for the right team at the right moment. He came to Kansas City with a pedigree honed in Tampa and while the first season wasn’t what anyone imagined, he has managed this club with a purpose. The mantra is “today” and that’s exactly what the team focuses on. As Quatraro says, they look only at the game in front of them. That’s a reason why they’ve been successful. They don’t linger on the victories and dwell on the losses. They keep the game in front of them. This team is a reflection of their manager.

Huge credit to the coaching staff, too. This is a team that is fundamentally prepared to compete in every game. They fold the data with the scouting reports to leverage all of the information at their disposal. They have come a long, long way in two seasons of baseball. Suddenly, 2022 seems like another age.

I hope you were able to catch the celebrations in the clubhouse. Joel Goldberg showed that covering these moments is like riding a bike for him. He didn’t do it for nine seasons but picked it back up like he does this every year. A pro.

There was Bobby Witt Jr. talking about the boys. Salvy just being Salvy. Vinnie catching himself before he dropped an f-bomb on live television. Tommy Pham telling us he’s a likable guy. A very inebriated John Schreiber asking how everyone in Kansas City is doing. We’re doing great, John! Thanks for asking!

Pasquantino was also asked to give an update to his injury. He was back on the field, working out on Friday. He’s due to take swings against live pitching on Saturday. Quatraro says he’s “well ahead of schedule” per Anne Rogers. Do you think Pasquantino is going to miss the Wild Card round? Good luck keeping him off that field.

I started posting the FanGraphs playoff odds early in the season. Not because I thought the Royals were going to be playoff-bound, but because I thought it would be a fun way to chart how long they could hang around. I think next to improving the won-loss record, most of us were hopeful that there would be some meaningful games this year. The graphs of the odds were a way to look at their progress. How long they could stay in the game, so to speak.

Let’s check in on the FanGraphs playoff odds for the final time in 2024.

How about that? One hundred percent. What a climb. What a story. And the final chapter comes in October.

Hangover game tomorrow!

Seth Lugo was the scheduled starter, but I highly doubt he will take his turn. There is still the matter of seeding to be settled, but the Royals will need to win at least once while Detroit has to lose both games for the Royals to pass them for the number five seed. That doesn’t matter. The Royals are assured of playing this Wild Card series on the road. Their opponent will be either Houston as the third seed and winners of the AL West or the Orioles as the fourth seed and first Wild Card.

The one team I wouldn’t want to play of the other five? The Detroit Tigers. Lordy, those guys are tearing it up. What a story that one is. Almost as good as what’s happening in Kansas City. Almost.

This is relevant to your interests:

So regarding the next two games what matters more than the seeding of the Wild Card round is that the Royals set their rotation for the series. Lugo should go in the first game. Ragans should start the second. Michael Wacha should line up for the third, if necessary.

One final thought: These Royals have been playing tight over the last couple of weeks. There hasn’t been as much fun emanating from these guys, even in the wins. They seemed aware of what was in front of them and they seemed aware of what it would mean to fall short. They were worried about becoming what ultimately happened to the Minnesota Twins.

So now that the Champagne corks have been popped and the pressure is off I wonder if they don’t go on a bit of a run. They cleared the first hurdle. Everything else is just kind of a bonus from here on out. The postseason is a crapshoot they say and we know that all too well. I truly believe the epic comeback in the 2014 Wild Card game was the fuel that carried them to sweeps against the Angels in the Divisional Series and then the Orioles in the ALCS. Could something similar happen this year?

The postseason starts on Tuesday. The boys will be playin’ in October.