Keller bombed in the Bronx

After another sub-par start from Brad Keller, questions need to be asked.

Do you remember last season when Brad Keller allowed just two home runs all year?

He coughed up two bombs in his first three innings on Thursday in the Bronx. Sure, some of that can be explained away by the fact the game was played in the toy ballpark the Yankees call home, but you also cannot deny that Keller has shown a proclivity in 2021 to leave some meaty pitches up in the zone. In fact, here are a couple that didn’t stay in the yard.

The slider was gift-wrapped to Aaron Judge on a 2-2 count in the top of the first. I mean…

That’s 101 on the exit velocity and 344 feet to right. Yankee Stadium is probably the only place in the majors that ball exits. But that doesn’t preclude the fact the slider in that location was a poor pitch. It should be punished.

The fastball was served on a platter to Luke Voit, likewise on a 2-2 count. It followed an almost identical pitch in the exact same location that he previously fouled off.

I’m tempted to just copy and paste the my previous words from the Judge home run. Yes, this was a Yankee Stadium Special. However, this was an elevated fastball in the exact same location as the previous pitch.

Also, go back and look at where Sebastian Rivero set his glove on both pitches. He was looking for the ball down. I mean, you would expect that from the slider. Still, the point stands that Keller missed location on both pitches that left the yard.

It’s difficult to ding a pitcher for allowing a couple of home runs in Yankee Stadium. But this is an ongoing issue with Keller in 2021. It’s part of his struggles. After averaging a 0.6 HR/9 over the first three seasons of his major league career, he’s posting a 1.4 HR/9 this year through 16 starts.

---

Researcher Doug Kern tweeted out the following after the game.

Doug Kern @dakern74

Brad Keller: First Royals pitcher to give up 9+ hits, 4+ walks, and 2+ homers in a game since James Shields at STL, Jun 3 2014 (ND 8-7).

baseball-reference.comKansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals Box Score, June 3, 2014 | Baseball-Reference.comKansas City Royals beat St. Louis Cardinals (8-7). Jun 3, 2014, Attendance: 41192, Time of Game: 3:12. Visit Baseball-Reference.com for the complete box score, play-by-play, and win probability

Kern always has the oddly specific stats that he mines. This one got me thinking…if it’s been so long since that’s happened, how many times in franchise history has a pitcher done this? How many games have there been where a pitcher has allowed over nine hits with at least two of them leaving the yard while surrendering four walks? I know you’re asking yourself the same thing! And that’s why you’re so fortunate to be subscribing to this newsletter.

I’m not sure you want to be keeping company with Mike Wood and Chris George. Although the flip side is Bret Saberhagen and Dennis Leonard are on the list. And Leonard and Jay Witasick are the only starters of the now 20 who won their game. It’s kind of a mixed bag. It doesn’t mean anything. Merely some trivia to stump your pals with when you’re out for some post-Covid beers.

The average Game Score of those 17 starts in the table above comes out to 28. That gives you a decent idea of what that kind of performance set in those parameters means. That Keller finished his day with a Game Score of 32 is sort of impressive.

---

Equally impressive was the fact that Keller lasted five innings. After Brady Singer couldn’t get out of the fourth inning on Monday and Danny Duffy followed with an abbreviated start on Tuesday, it was absolutely imperative that Keller get deep into his start for the sake of the bullpen. Especially since Mike Matheny used his quality relief arms in both games previously.

Keller needed 25 or more pitches in three of his five innings of work. He finished with 114 pitches, just 61 of which were strikes. It was tied for the second-highest pitch count of his career. He threw 118 pitches in a start against Cleveland in April of 2019.

According to data from Baseball Savant, Keller is relying more on his sinker this year. He’s now mixing that pitch along with his four-seamer and slider almost equally. In the chart below, the slider looks like it disappears, but it’s right behind the line for the four-seamer. He’s sacrificing both for more fastballs. All three pitches are utilized around 30 percent of the time.

While there isn’t a single pitch that is been outstanding for Keller in 2021, the sinker and four-seam offerings are getting hit. And getting hit hard. The batting averages against his sinker and four-seam fastball are .355 and .333 respectively. Opposing batters are hammering the sinker to the tune of a .486 slugging percentage and punishing the four-seam for a .577 slugging percentage.

His velocity is up on all pitches but his spin rates are static. His strikeout rate has climbed from 16.3 percent in 2020 to a career-high 19 percent this season. He’s gotten a lot more swing and miss on the four-seam than he has in the past, but that can’t make up for the damage opposing hitters have done against the pitch. Still, the slider remains his most potent weapon when it comes to racking up the whiffs.

The one change from the successful Brad Keller of 2020 and the pitching machine opposing hitters are destroying in 2021 is his horizontal release point. He’s moved to a more upright delivery from what he’s done in the past.

Is it a significant change? Does the shift in release point manifest in less than desirable outcomes? I can’t say for certain.

This is a still frame from a start in 2020. He’s pitching from the windup and about to release a slider.

Here’s another slider, also from the windup, in 2021.

It’s slight, but in the lower frame (from this year) Keller looks like he’s slightly more contorted to the left. His arm slot is a little more over the top. Again, these are tiny changes in the delivery. I’m not drawing any conclusions, merely pointing out differences as a possible reason he’s struggled this year after pitching so well in 2020.

One reason I looked there because it sure seems like Keller is spiking a ton of pitches in the dirt, especially his slider. Obviously, those pitches aren’t leaving the yard or dropping in for hits, but perhaps it’s a symptom of the problem.

Here’s his pitch chart from Thursday’s outing in New York where he uncorked a season-high 19 pitches that were balls in the dirt or swinging strikes blocked by his catcher. This is just from a single game:

He still got three swinging strikes on sliders in the dirt. Two were against Gary Sanchez in the same at bat in the fourth. The other was revenge on Voit in the fifth.

This year, 6.8 percent of Keller’s pitches are in the dirt. That’s up from last year’s rate of 4 percent. Only Blake Snell in San Diego has buried more pitches in the dirt at 7.3 percent.

Again, why is this happening? Is it related to release point? Has he changed something else about how he throws his pitches, especially his slider?

Look at the difference in heatmaps on Keller’s slider from last year to this year.

Yes, he’s generating more swing and miss, but it it coming at the expense of his command of his pitches?

There are just a ton of questions surrounding his 2021 performance.

---

So we have a pitcher who has experienced success in the past who is struggling in the present. Here’s how Keller’s Baseball Reference page is looking these days.

Kind of crazy that he’s thown only three wild pitches. But revisiting the gif above of the bounced pitches, most aren’t that far off the plate. They’re generally blockable. But the key takeaway is the increase in stats like ERA, FIP, WHIP and all the rates. Those aren’t sabermetric stats, but the above translates to a less than inspiring line no matter how you crunch the numbers.

And we’re nearly half-way through the 2021 season. This isn’t some small sample size. Keller has routinely struggled in his starts. Going back to Game Score, he’s finished with a Game Score of 50 or lower in 12 of those 16 starts. That’s…not good.

As the young Royals starters continue to struggle to gain a foothold in the majors, to see Keller backslide is not what the team needed. So the spotlight has to be shining on pitching coach Cal Eldred. Exactly why have Royals starters (and relievers for that matter) struggled to throw strikes? Why have the young arms such as Singer and Bubic failed to offer concrete evidence of progression in their season-plus in the big leagues? And why have the other young starters who made their debuts in 2021 looked so unprepared?

You would expect a young pitching staff to take their lumps. But like this in the collective? With this kind of frequency? It’s discouraging to watch on a daily basis.

Questions like the above need to be asked of the pitching coach and related staff. And the urgency with which they need to be asked is only increasing.

Central issues

• Astros 12, Tigers 3

Duces wild as the Astros plated two runs in innings two through five to build an 8-1 lead before capping the scoring with four in the ninth on a Yordan Alvarez grand slam.

The Astros have won 11 in a row.

• Cleveland 4, Twins 1

Eddie Rosario broke a 1-1 deadlock in the 8th with a single, plating two runs. He also provided this moment:

CJ Fogler #BlackLivesMatter @cjzero

Eddie Rosario got picked off at second... and you just need to watch it

Ah, sweet redemption. But what in the world was he doing?

Up next

The Royals head to Texas for their first games in that airplane hangar the Rangers call home. It’s a rematch from the first series of the season. You remember that one, when the Royals’ offense looked like it was going to be formidable? That was a fun weekend.

The Rangers have settled in to last place in the AL West, a full 20 games behind Houston. Their .360 winning percentage is third worst in baseball, ahead of only the Diamondbacks and Orioles.

Friday — Mike Minor vs Dane Dunning

Saturday — TBD vs Kyle Gibson

Sunday — Brady Singer vs Jordan Lyles

First pitch for Friday’s game is set for 7:05 CDT.