Royals 2024 roster rojection 2.0

On a roster full of versatility, the Royals have somehow created even more with their latest addition.

Last month, for my first post of the new year, I ran an extremely early roster projection. Since then, the Royals have moderately shuffled their roster and made one move that has some serious playing time implications.

So in honor of the first workout for pitchers and catchers on Valentine’s Day (who says you can’t get romantic about baseball?) here’s my second attempt at projecting the team the Royals will bring north for Opening Day.

The rotation
Cole Ragans
Michael Wacha
Seth Lugo
Brady Singer
Jordan Lyles

The swingman
Daniel Lynch IV

Lyles’ inclusion here is a cautionary tale for general managers who turn to the free agent market to plug a hole that exists on their roster and then suddenly finds himself with a player who no longer fits. Lyles is a guy who really shouldn’t be in the competition for a rotation spot, but he has another year on his two-year contract and is set to make $8.5 million. Alas.

However, as the Royals will point out, the purpose is the create competition for spots. Nothing is handed out, it has to be earned. So someone has to take Lyles’ spot. Count Daniel Lynch IV among the guys I’m most intrigued to see in camp this spring. He injured his shoulder late in the Cactus League last spring and that caused him to miss the season’s first two months. Then, after making nine starts, he reinjured his shoulder in July. That one knocked him out of action, save for one rehab start in Omaha, for the rest of the year.

He made one start in the Arizona Fall League before heading to the Dominican to play winter ball for Leones del Escogido. He made five starts for them, throwing a total of 20.1 innings. He finished with a 2.66 ERA, which was by far the best mark among starters on his club who made at least five starts. For more perspective, the overall ERA for pitchers on Leones was 3.78. Lynch also struck out 23 batters but did walk a team-high 13.

I have Lynch listed as a swingman to hedge my bets. I just can’t decide where he slots in at the moment. That’s because everything is basically riding on his shoulder and his arm. A good, healthy spring and he forces himself into the rotation, probably at the expense of Lyles, contract be damned.

Another twist! One feature of the schedule this year is that the Royals only have one day off in their first 10 games. That necessitates a five-man rotation just about from the jump. There are also just two days off in the entire month of April. Could the Royals go for a radical approach and use a /gasp/ six-man rotation early in the season to conserve innings in the first couple of months of the season where some may still be building up arm strength? As I noted earlier this week, this isn’t a rotation build on the arms of 200-plus inning throwers. It’s more like a gaggle of 140-inning guys. Adding a sixth man early would be a way to find more of those innings from the rotation.

The Royals need innings, but they also need health from their starting pitchers.

The bullpen
Nick Anderson
Carlos Hernández
James McArthur
John McMillon
Matt Sauer
Will Smith
Chris Stratton

Newcomers Anderson, Smith and Stratton are locks. McArthur made his case in a brief stretch in August followed by a scoreless September. I’m not a guy to cherry-pick numbers, but if you throw out his ugly one-and-done major league debut against Cleveland on June 28 where he gave up seven runs in an inning, McArthur posted a 2.01 ERA while limiting opponents to a .184 batting average and a .200 on-base percentage over 17 appearances. That’ll play.

Sauer, as noted in version 1.0, is a lock given his Rule 5 status. That leaves two spots, one of which I’m handing Hernández by default. We all know how electric he can be, but there’s quite a snowball effect to his bad outings.

The last opening goes to McMillon in this version. I had previously included Josh Taylor, but am wary of his previous back injury and the subsequent surgery to repair a herniated disc. Others who just missed would be Jake Brentz who has options remaining and is coming back from Tommy John surgery along with Angel Zerpa and Steven Cruz. If either Hernández or McMillon falters in the Cactus League, there looks to be some decent depth options for the Royals to assemble the back end of the bullpen.

The catchers
Freddy Fermin
Salvador Perez

Book it.

The infield
Adam Frazier
Makiel Garcia
Michael Massey
Vinnie Pasquantino
Bobby Witt Jr.

Well, this is where it gets a bit awkward. The Royals insist there’s enough playing time at second to go around for Frazier and Massey, who are both left-handed hitters. The guess here is Frazier gets the nod at the keystone when the Royals are facing a lefty, but when the Royals square off against a right-hander, they’ll go with Massey at second and Frazier will shift to a corner outfield spot. In other words, the Royals will find a way to get Frazier in the lineup on the regular. Massey gets the platoon role.

I realize the schedule has changed where teams no longer play their division rivals so often, but it bears pointing out that the AL Central skews very right-handed when it comes to starting pitching. On FanGraph’s Roster Resource pages, Tarik Skubal in Detroit and Logan Allen in Cleveland are the only lefty starters in Central Division rotations.

The outfield
Kyle Isbel
MJ Melendez
Hunter Renfroe
Drew Waters

And now it just gets complicated. Again. Looking at this group of four, it’s easy to see Melendez in left, Renfroe in right and Isbel and Waters splitting time in center. But if Frazier is going to get reps in a corner spot, he will have to bump probably Renfroe as the Royals attempt to gain a platoon advantage situation against those right-handed starters. Whew.

This roster reminds me of the Orioles back in the day when Earl Weaver was managing. There’s a player for every occasion and every situation. The pressure will be on Matt Quatraro and his staff to maximize the matchups and situations.

Oh! I haven’t even mentioned Garrett Hampson yet.

Let’s go.

Utility and DH
Garrett Hampson
Nelson Velázquez

Hampson can play just about anywhere but vibes a poor man’s right-handed hitting Frazier. He can serve the purpose of this year’s Bloomquist Barometer: If he’s getting 300-plus plate appearances, something went horribly wrong.

From his first start for the Royals to the end of the season, Velázquez crushed 14 bombs and slugged .579. He can—and will—play in the outfield on occasion, but the thinking for now is he will probably see most of his action as the DH.

I can’t find a spot for Nick Pratto. Dairon Blanco is a nice piece, but difficult to fit on a roster with so much versatility and decent outfield defense. If the Royals decide to ship Waters to the minors, Blanco could stick around as the prototypical late-inning defensive replacement. (Which they would definitely need if Melendez and Renfroe are manning the corners.) Nick Loftin impressed in his cup of coffee last September and needs a long look but seems blocked at this moment in time.