10 Comments
Feb 15Liked by Craig Brown

Would Lyles as 5th starter improve his record and the Royals because he's presumably now facing opponents 5th starter?

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I wouldn’t say that. A 5th starter doesn’t always align with the other team’s 5th starter. If things work out though, a 5th starter can be on a shorter leash knowing the team’s ace is going the next day. Or the 5th starter can be skipped when the schedule fits.

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Feb 15Liked by Craig Brown

Mr. B, To me, Adam Frazier is the walking, talking definition of mediocrity. Does his signing indicate a lack of confidence in Massey or are they just buying a year of insurance in the hope that Massey will develop into a (perhaps) mainstay? BTW, LOVE Bloomquist Barometer.

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To me, it’s about a lack of confidence in what they have, plus maybe buying another year for Loftin, although I’m not sure he needs it. I still can’t figure out why they felt the need to make this move.

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Feb 15Liked by Craig Brown

Your analysis is making me regret the Frazier signing even more.

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Yeah. Difficult to understand. But these things always seem to have a way of working out. Either injury or a trade. We’ll see.

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Feb 15Liked by Craig Brown

“Lyles is a guy who really shouldn’t be in the competition for a rotation spot, but he has another year on his two-year contract and is set to make $8.5 million. Alas”

Lyles contract is a sunk cost. It should have zero consideration on decisions about playing time. Dozier is still being paid. Does that mean he should, alas, be receiving ABs this year?

I’m assuming you understand the sunk cost fallacy, but it’s disappointing to me how often I hear people support this fallacious thinking. Nothing is forcing JJ & Co. to give Lyles opportunities unless if they truly think he adds value prospectively.

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I’ve been covering the Royals for 20 years. Of course I understand sunk cost fallacy. I also understand (on some level) how the Royals operate. Yes, there’s new leadership in place, but as long as Lyles is here, he’s pitching. The value the Royals believe he brings is in innings. Not quality of innings pitched. The quantity of innings pitched. If Lynch proves he’s ready, or if Zerpa can do it, or if Veneziano or Bowlan emerge as better options, yeah, they’ll move on. Until then…he’s here.

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Feb 15Liked by Craig Brown

Love me some Weaver references and you getting into how the chess pieces will likely move around the board. Wow! Two lefties is it? Interesting.

Also, your response to David K - "I’ve been covering the Royals for 20 years. Of course I understand sunk cost fallacy." My favorite response on any comment board of the year thus far, by far!

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Thanks, Coach. I’m currently reading Nine Innings from Dan Okrent. So I’m engrossed in the 1982 Orioles at the moment.

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