Even ping-pong balls are against the Royals

The Royals are draft lottery losers once again. Plus, they're in the mix on at least one intriguing free agent and the snoozefest of the Winter Meetings comes to a close today with the Rule 5 draft.

Sometimes you win. A lot of times, if you’re the Royals, you lose. And then there are those instances where a random combination of ping-pong balls conspire to screw you out of what’s rightfully yours.

On Tuesday, in MLB’s second annual draft lottery, the Royals held the highest odds of securing the number one selection along with the Oakland A’s and Colorado Rockies. They could pick no higher than eighth.

The result was a dumpster fire of ping-pong balls, as tastefully artificially illustrated here:

For the lottery, the selection of ping pong balls proceeds where a drawing is made to decide the first pick, then a separate, full drawing is held to determine the second pick. And so on and so on. A draw of 8-14-10-7 meant the Cleveland Guardians, who had a 76-86 record last year and had just a two percent chance of winning, would select first overall in the draft for the first time in their franchise history. According to Baseball America, which had a representative present as a pool reporter, the first run of ping-pong balls yielded the Washington Nationals as the winner of the top pick. Since they were a revenue-sharing payee, they were prohibited from having a top-six pick in back-to-back years, so the draw was run again. That’s when Cleveland won.

The Nationals number somehow came up for the second overall selection, so…another redraw. This time, the first three ping-pong balls that came out were the same first three that led to Cleveland winning the first pick (although in a different order, but still…). Unbelievable odds of that happening two times in four runs. Cincinnati won the second pick.

The Royals’ number didn’t come up until the ninth drawing of the afternoon. The sixth pick was theirs.

Just an incredibly frustrating turn of events to cap an incredibly frustrating year for the Royals.

The draft lottery is in place to discourage tanking. As we are well aware, the Royals have never really decided to tank. On purpose, at least. They prefer to live in that vacuum where they neither contend nor tank. Sometimes, it means they lose 100 games in a season. Other times, it’s closer to 90 or 95. In 2023, they came by those 106 losses honestly. This wasn’t some sort of Oakland A’s scenario where the front office knowingly took a flamethrower to the roster and respectability. In Kansas City, the flamethrower seems to go off accidentally.

This is the second year in a row that the Royals lost position in the lottery. Last year, they had the fifth pick in their grasp, only to slide to eighth once the ping-pong balls were sorted.

It’s also the second year in a row where two central division rivals will pick before the Royals, despite having a better record the year before. Last year, the Tigers picked third and the Twins fifth. This time around the Guardians have the number one pick and the White Sox will pick just in front of the Royals at fifth.

I realize this sounds like a sour grapes kind of post. Here’s another dumpster fire full of artificial intelligence to make up for that:

For a team that has proven itself quite adept at shooting themselves in the foot, it’s incredibly frustrating when the ping-pong balls conspire to do the damage. I don’t know what the answer is to the tanking issue. I do know the draft is a means for teams to pull themselves out of the dumps, but if teams are ceding places in back-to-back years, how is that supposed to help? And to have multiple division rivals with better records picking in front…that just doesn’t sit right.

And it’s not just the loss of draft position that hurts. It’s the fact the Royals will have less draft pool money at their disposal to sign players. The Royals have generally tried to maximize every dollar at their disposal, spreading their bonus money in a way that allows them to chase some picks with perhaps some difficult signability in the later rounds. It doesn’t always work, but whatever…That doesn’t matter in this conversation. What does matter is fiscal flexibility is reduced as their slice of the pool money shrinks. The draft becomes a little more difficult to navigate.

The lottery system seems convoluted to me, a simple human who struggled with algebra the first time through and then developed a serious allergy to calculus. I’m not going to go all draft conspiracy theory here, but there should be more safeguards in place to ensure the odds tilt a little heavier in favor of teams that cede draft position in the previous year or something. Or maybe a limit on the number of teams that can qualify for a top-three pick. Maybe tie the odds to losses and payroll. Maybe go back to the old way just based on record, but don’t allow teams back-to-back years where they pick number one overall or in the top three. I don’t know…It’s just a drag that the Royals have lost 206 games in the last two seasons, participated in two draft lotteries and haven’t picked in the top five.

The draft is supposed to be a way for underperforming teams to gain a foothold. The lottery is now preventing that from happening.

If you were hoping for some juicy hot stove rumors to ease the draft lottery pain, I present the following:

The Royals have been officially linked to a real, live, free agent. And some they’re in some heady—and difficult—company. It’s also a starting pitcher who I would be in favor of acquiring in Lucas Giolito. The right-hander was having a typically solid season for the White Sox last year but saw everything derail after a trade sent him to the Angels at the deadline. Los Angeles released him in late August in a move to get under the luxury tax once their playoff hopes were completely dashed. The Guardians picked him up and he continued to struggle in the final month of the season.

Giolito is a flyball pitcher who is prone to coughing up the long ball. You can see from the table above, that was a contributing factor to his nightmares in LA and Cleveland. If he were to make his home at The K, you would expect that issue to abate somewhat. He also struggled with his control as the season progressed, but is generally solid in the walk department, while posting quality whiff rates.

There’s a lot to like here. MLB Trade Rumors speculates Giolito will sign for two years at $44 million. The Athletic predicts two years and $24 million with an opt-out. Safe to say there’s some variance here. The good news is we know the Royals have some money to play with on the free-agent market. Some $30 million. Giolito would have to fall closer to the estimate from The Athletic to make this happen, but we do know they—like just about every team—is desperate for starting pitching. A two-year deal in the range of $30 million with that opt-out could be enticing. The opt-out could mean Giolito could be a trade candidate once again at the deadline if he performs well enough. He’s clearly one of the better options of the second tier of starters on the market. It’s nice to see the Royals in the mix. However, being in the mix isn’t good enough. They should actually make this deal.

I give away Bluesky invite codes and they keep sending me more. Another round for my subscribers.

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I should probably note that I’m on Bluesky @craigbrownkc.bsky.social if you’re interested in following. If you are in possession of some codes yourself and would like to share them here, feel free to shoot them my way (you can email reply to the newsletter) and I’ll get them out there.

These Winter Meetings have just about completely flatlined. Thanks, Shohei! I mean, if there’s genuine intrigue around an Erick Fedde signing… (The Royals probably should’ve been in on that.) The Yankees and Red Sox made a deal that should at least sate the East Coast media for a day or two, but other than that, I hear the hotel has some nice fountains. I probably should’ve gone down and set up shop.

The festivities conclude with the Rule 5 draft on Wednesday afternoon. The Royals currently have a full 40-man roster, so barring any last-minute transactions they will have to pass on their pick. They hold the second overall selection based on their record last year.

Hmmm…no draft lottery for the Rule 5? C’mon Manfred! Find a way to screw this up!

Due to the truncated 2020 draft, this year’s Rule 5 class is supposedly thinner than usual, so I guess it wouldn’t be surprising if the Royals decided to sit this one out. Just to be prepared, Max at Royals Review has your primer for the draft. He covers the pitchers and the hitters available for selection.

That’s it for now. May your day be free of ping-pong balls and dumpster fires.