Royally excited; the season starts now

Mondesi begins 2021 on the IL, a look ahead to Opening Day & more on Bally's Blunder

Chris Murphy/Flickr | Creative Commons 2.0

Finally. Opening Day. It feels like it’s been forever.

I’ve been kicking around some ideas on how to evolve this newsletter now the regular season is here. I’m envisioning the usual in-depth articles I’ve done in the past but also thinking of doing some recaps/previews/miscellany as well. I promise I won’t spam your inbox!

Today’s newsletter is an attempt at the latter. I would appreciate any and all feedback and suggestions. So feel free to leave a comment by clicking on that nifty button below, or email me directly at brown3829@gmail.com.

Thanks. Let’s get to the news of the day.

The Big Headline: Mondesi starts the season on the IL

My first thought on hearing the news was that this was some sort of dumb, early April Fool’s joke. My second thought was, why should I be surprised.

On Wednesday afternoon the Royals announced that Adalberto Mondesi would open the 2021 season on the IL with an oblique strain. This comes after the oft-injured Mondesi played in 59 of the 60 games last year. It also comes after a killer September and a good, solid Cactus League. There’s no good time to suffer an injury bad enough the team has to put you on the IL. But given the lead-up to where we are currently, this is especially ill-timed.

Recall Mondesi didn’t open the exhibition slate on time as the Royals were taking precautions because he was hit by a pitch on his foot just prior to reporting to Surprise. The oblique injury bookends his camp. And as manager Mike Matheny noted, the Royals were largely able to avoid the injury bug this spring.

“We were very fortunate that we had as successful a spring that we had, health-wise, but to come down to the very last game (to get injured)… that’s a shame,” Matheny said. “I hurt for Mondi. I know how hard he’s worked. How good he looked. It’s just a shame.”

We all hurt for Mondi. And what it means for the Royals. With a hopefully ascendant Mondesi in the lineup, the Royals offense was looking like it would be above-average when it comes to production in 2021. They may very well still be better than your average offense, but if this was to finally be the season where Mondesi realized his full potential, this hurts—both Mondesi as an individual and the Royals as a team.

The Royals are optimistic this will keep the shortstop sidelined for just two to three weeks. And with the light schedule the first couple weeks of the season maybe this is actually the best time for an injury like this. But studies show the average recovery time from an oblique strain for position players is closer to 25 days. Then there’s the matter of regaining timing when thrown back into the fire of regular season baseball. It wouldn’t be surprising if Mondesi was sidelined into May.

There’s no way to sugar coat this…this is a blow.

It’s as if you never left

Nicky Lopez, optioned earlier this week, returns and will be the Opening Day starter at shortstop. To hear Matheny talk, it sounds like the platoon that was likely envisioned for second base between Lopez and Hanser Alberto will just shift to the other side of the bag.

If we’re being honest here (and why wouldn’t we?) Lopez caught a break. A ballplayer would never wish injury on a teammate—that just invites all sorts of bad karma—but when Lopez was optioned out, it was really difficult to see how he would force his way back to Kansas City. The only possibilities were if Isbel struggled so badly he got himself optioned out after the Dayton Moore benchmark of 40-odd games…or a specific injury. And wouldn’t you know it?

To say the pressure is on Lopez would be an understatement. This isn’t necessarily his last chance to prove his offensive worth to the Royals, but he’s definitely running short on time. Especially if this team finds itself on the cusp of contention.

The Opening Series

Matheny named his starting nine on Wednesday, but wouldn’t divulge the batting order. Here’s how I think they’ll fill out the lineup card against the Rangers.

• Merrifield - 2B

• Benintendi - LF

• Santana - 1B

• Soler - DH

• Perez - C

• Dozier - 3B

• Taylor - CF

• Isbel - RF

• Lopez - SS

Matheny made it official on Wednesday—Kyle Isbel will make his major league debut in right field on Opening Day against the Rangers. “He’s having a fantastic spring as far as quality at-bats goes and how he was tracking the ball in the outfield,” Matheny said. “The opportunity presented itself…letting a young player like Kyle know, and telling him today, that he’s going to be in that starting lineup…it’s special.”

There are roster moves still to be made, with a deadline of 11 am Thursday. The Royals always slow play these final decisions, so it’s not surprising we haven’t gotten the official word. We do know that Ervin Santana and Jake Brentz, two non-roster invitees I speculated would make the final roster, were at the workout on Wednesday. For a look at my final guess of the 26-man roster to start the season, click here.

What to watch

Thursday’s starter Brad Keller will be facing a Rangers lineup that tilts strongly to the left. According to the Roster Resource page at Fangraphs, six of the nine expected starters will dig in from the left side, including Three True Outcome monster Joey Gallo and freshly acquired Nate Lowe. As you would probably expect, in his career the right-hander Keller has had less success when up against the platoon advantage.

In the small sample of last season, Keller’s strikeout rate against lefties dropped to 14.1 percent. But he seemingly gave all hitters fits, no matter what side of the plate they were standing. Facing exclusively Central Division hitters, his barrel rate was in the 89th percentile in 2020. Apart from Gallo and Lowe, there isn’t much thunder in this Rangers lineup. It will be a good opening test for Keller and the Royals.

Bally Blunder

On Wednesday, I published a Twitter poll. It hasn’t closed as of this writing, but the results are in. And hoooooo boy, is Bally Sports making a colossal mistake in limiting their product to Royals fans.

Through even the lean, post-championship years, Royals fans have been some of the most dedicated viewers of the game. Consistently they rank at the top or at the very top in terms of total viewership and share of viewers. It may not always reflect in attendance, but as prices climb and it’s getting more and more expensive to take a family to a ballgame, watching on television is the best way for many fans to follow the game.

And the expansion of broadcasts has been a positive. Baseball and broadcasting has always had a tenuous relationship, going back all the way to the days of radio. Royals fans of a certain age remember the days where there were just a few road games on television each year and usually only one home game in September. Now, it’s just expected that 160+ games will be available on a cable network. But when that cable network decides to play their own brand of hardball with carriers, the fans lose.

Get it together Bally Sports. Royals, hold their feet to the fire. Force them to get a deal done with carriers like Hulu and YouTube. Otherwise, you’re going to be losing some of your most die-hard fans.

Believe me, baseball can’t afford to do that.

You believe! You really believe!

From the unsolicited gambling emails I receive, the Royals opened wagering season with an over/under win total of 71.5. Over 98 percent of the action on that line took the over. Over 98 percent! Vegas tacked on three more wins to cover themselves and it still feels light at 74.5. (Yes, even with the Mondesi injury.)

Place your wagers before the window closes.

Royals/Rangers Random Nonsense

• This is the first time the Royals and Rangers have squared off against each other on Opening Day. The earliest they had ever met in a season before this year was 4/10/1973 which was the first-ever game at Royals Stadium.

• The last time the Royals and Rangers matched up for a trade was when Texas sent Jason Frasor to Kansas City on 7/16/2014. Since then, the Rangers have made at least one trade with every other major league team.

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Happy Opening Day!