Projecting the 26, Take 4
One final stab at the Royals' Opening Day roster.
It’s almost here. Less than a week to go before Opening Day. As Ervin Santana would say, it’s time to “smell baseball.”
As of this writing, there are still 35 players in camp. That’s 18 pitchers, three catchers, eight infielders and six outfielders. Of those 35, nine are non-roster invitees.
Man, that’s easy. Thirty-five in camp minus the nine non-roster guys and boom! There’s your 26 for Opening Day. Ha. If only it were that simple. A few of those non-roster invitees will get the call to go north with the club. The roster intrigue comes fro the fact the Royals currently have two open spots on the 40-man roster. There figure to be one or two players who will hit the waiver wire in the coming days.
As always, players are listed in alphabetical order except for the rotation which is in the order of their starts. Changes are noted in bold. This week, I’ve added the players who are still in camp. Non-roster invitees are indicated with an asterisk.
Catcher
Cam Gallagher, Salvador Perez
The contract extension Perez signed makes this category a lock for the next several years, barring the Royals deciding to move him to a designated hitter spot or something. Should probably note that Perez is having a fantastic spring, hitting .400/.471/.733 in 34 plate appearances. He’s as locked in offensively as he was in 2020.
For more on Perez and his extension, you can read my initial analysis or how he figures into Royals franchise history.
As you’ll see as you read onward, it’s nice to have at least one position that’s a slam dunk.
Still in camp: Nick Dini*
Infield
Hanser Alberto*, Hunter Dozier, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Ryan O’Hearn, Carlos Santana
A week ago, I sounded the alarm on Lopez and we’re at a point where Alec Lewis at The Athletic left the second baseman off his latest roster projection. Regular readers know that I favor the bold when it comes to these projections, and Lewis makes a great case and is around the team so he understands the vibe. The evidence that Lopez has lost the starting job at the keystone is starting to get overwhelming.
Merrifield has started the last four games at second. Meanwhile, Lopez has made one start—spelling Mondesi at short for a game—while making late-inning appearances. That’s not the sort of thing you’d see happening a week before the regular season starts if the Royals weren’t seriously thinking about pulling the trigger.
As Lewis points out, that essentially wipes out the Royals’ plans they’ve held since the start of the offseason and potentially creates a domino effect.
Lewis has both McBroom and O’Hearn on his projected roster. Recall that was the plan heading into 2020 with the celebrated “soft platoon” at first base, but I just can’t wrap my head around having two first base/designated hitter/pinch hitter types on this team when you have Santana and Jorge Soler occupying the first two aforementioned slots. I still think the Royals go with the left-handed bat for now and am sticking with O’Hearn.
And that somehow still leaves a spot for Lopez on the big league roster! I’m thinking that the Royals will keep him around for late-inning defense and the occasional spot-start. There are just a ton of possibilities in this scenario. It’s also possible Lopez is the first one out if the Royals decide to add another pitcher when they expand their rotation to add the fifth starter in a couple of weeks.
I’m getting dizzy. It’s a good thing I’m not a manager.
Still in camp: Ryan McBroom, Erick Mejia*
Outfield
Andrew Benintendi, Jarrod Dyson, Jorge Soler, Michael A. Taylor… Hunter Dozier?, Whit Merrifield?
This is where the other domino falls should the Royals option Lopez to the minors—it could create a hole in right field. Dozier has picked up a couple of spot-starts out there, but the Royals have really given a look to Kyle Isbel, who was reassigned to minor league camp last week. Isbel was hitting .313/.395/.563 in 38 plate appearances before going 1-3 against the Diamondbacks on Thursday.
Soler, Dyson, Bubba Starling and Dozier have each received time in right over the last week as well. Soler, of course, is best served as a designated hitter. Dyson isn’t a regular. Starling is still in camp as a non-roster invitee, but he’s on the periphery of this discussion. That leaves Dozier as the Royals’ best option if Merrifield moves back to the infield. Of course, they could cycle around with Dozier getting the majority of the starts with Soler getting a handful and an occasional cameo from Dyson. Which then gives Alberto playing time as a semi-regular third baseman. Merrifield could also feature in right field with Alberto providing cover at second while keeping Dozier at third.
Again, it would be bold to pencil Isbel in here but I’m not sure the Royals want to force the issue based on a solid run in the Cactus League. And when they bring a prospect up, the Royals don’t want him sitting on the bench every other day. He would need regular playing time, so the club would need to be certain that he’s absolutely ready. Isbel is the Royals’ second-best hitting prospect behind Bobby Witt Jr. (I had to work his name in here somewhere!) so it’s just like I’ve written previously about Witt, the Royals need to be convinced Isbel can handle the everyday challenges of the majors.
The lineup which felt almost set in stone two weeks ago is once again extremely fluid. Speaking of the lineup, did you catch the batting order on Thursday?
That feels like something we could see on Opening Day.
Still in camp: Bubba Starling*
Rotation
Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Brady Singer, Danny Duffy
This was made official late last week and was predicted in this space. (Yes!)
With a set rotation, the intrigue will center around the fifth starter. Kris Bubic had occupied that space for the first three editions, but struggled with his command, allowing 14 hits and four walks in 7.1 innings of Cactus League work. He will “hit the reset button” according to JJ Picollo which means we are unlikely to see him when the fifth starter spot comes up in the rotation sometime in the season’s second full week. The guess here is that it will be Ervin Santana who’s been “letting it eat,” according to Mike Matheny.
But let’s discuss the wonder that is Jakob Junis. The right-hander has straight dominated this spring with 10 strikeouts and no walks allowed in seven innings. He’s faced 24 total batters and allowed just two of them to reach base. He would be the choice, but I’m not sure how the Royals would handle getting him ready. He’s not stretched out to make a start currently and while there’s certainly time, they will most certainly use him as a weapon out of the bullpen.
Speaking of the bullpen…
Bullpen
Scott Barlow, Jake Brentz*, Wade Davis*, Jesse Hahn, Greg Holland, Jakob Junis, Ervin Santana*, Josh Staumont, Kyle Zimmer
Egad. It’s a nine-man bullpen to start the year. With Junis and Santana in the mix for the fifth starter spot, they’re on hand in case one of the starters crashes out early over the first couple of weeks.
I dropped Brad Brach from the pen. He’s had a rough go of it this camp with opponents hitting .455 against him and five walks and three strikeouts. The fact that he’s a non-roster invitee works against him here as well. It’s kind of difficult to open a spot on the 40-man for a 35-year-old reliever who’s battled command issues each of the last three seasons. Besides, I have four non-roster invitees making the club. If you recall from the open there are just two spots on the 40-man, so if this prediction is correct, the Royals will need to open up two spots.
In his place, I have Staumont back in the mix. I still feel like Richard Lovelady (2.57 ERA, 8 strikeouts in 7 innings) will be one of the final cuts in camp. And Jake Newberry could sneak in (3.68 ERA, 10 strikeouts in 7.1 innings.) The Royals have actually built what looks to be some strong bullpen depth.
Still in camp: Brad Brach*, Carlos Hernández, Jake Kalish*, Richard Lovelady, Jake Newberry
The early scheduled days off throw a bit of a spanner in the works. They really don’t need a nine-man bullpen the first two weeks of the season, so it’s conceivable they could go with another bat off the bench early. Even if the starting pitching completely imploded, it would be difficult getting everyone work. But the club is thin on position players that could fit on the roster as currently constructed. On reflection, it’s difficult to feel good about Lopez making this roster, but since I’m not sold on Isbel slotting into right field and because keeping a “soft pinch hit platoon” of McBroom and O’Hearn doesn’t make a lot of sense. Both have options, so it could be a pick ‘em situation.
I feel a lot less certain about Take 4 of these projections than I did Take 3. That’s not supposed to happen in spring training.
Nicky is headed to Omaha. With a 30% plus strikeout rate, he clearly has some things to straighten out with his swing and you can't really do that while riding the pines. Alberto is fine to cover SS in a pinch until Lopez can be recalled in the event of a DL stint with Mondesi. Isbel is your starting RF with a possible platoon with McBroom, and or Whit shifts to RF and Alberto to 2B against LHSP. O'Hearn eventually is the odd man out. Santana made the team yesterday. Yesterday's lineup was the opening day lineup.
I like that things are more fluid at the end because they have some options on the table that can make the team better. Not settling for a position player or pitcher just because he was suppose to be there. Playing to win from game 1 is the goal- right?