Heartbreak on the harbor

The Royals battled, but ultimately came up short against the Orioles. One of these days, they'll win a close one.

If I keep writing it (and you keep reading), maybe we can will it into existence. Just four games into the 2024 season and even with three losses in those games, this edition of the team feels very different from the version we saw in 2023. They’ve been in every game so far. Unfortunately, other than Sunday’s laugher, the breaks haven’t gone their way. Three losses in four games but that record could easily be flipped.

In these close losses, every move is magnified. The successes are a little sweeter and the mistakes are amplified in pain. The Royals had opportunities, and capitalized on a few, but ultimately couldn’t close the deal against the Orioles in Baltimore on Monday. They dropped their first road game of the year by a score of 6-4 after Jordan Westburg crushed a walk-off two-run home run off of reliever Nick Anderson.

The Royals were in it, then they weren’t…until they were in it again. So close. So disappointing.

There’s plenty to unpack from the last two innings. Let’s dive right in.

I’m a huge proponent of managers putting their players in positions to succeed. Success isn’t guaranteed, obviously. The right process doesn’t always yield the right results.

So I’m left wondering the moves late in the game that saw Nick Loftin deployed at first base in a tie ballgame.

I mean, I do understand how the Royals and Matt Quatraro got to this position. With the game tied at three, Bobby Witt Jr. led off the eighth with a single. He swiped second (the Royals’ first steal of the year!) and advanced to third when Vinnie Pasquantino hit a rocket of an infield single to first.

With runners on the corners of the tie game and no outs, Quatraro opted to pinch run for Pasquantino with Garrett Hampson. While Witt, representing the go-ahead run, was much more important than Pasquantino’s, Hampson was there to swipe a bag (which he did) and stay out of the double play with Perez at the plate. That gambit worked as Perez grounded to short, although you’d have to think that Witt would’ve scored.

The baserunning machinations meant the Royals needed someone to play first. Loftin, who entered the game earlier as a pinch hitter for starter Adam Frazier, slid over to first from second base.

As they say, the ball will find you. With one out and a runner on first, Loftin was playing level with the bag when Adley Rutschman hit a laser at 104 MPH right at the newly-inserted first baseman that he couldn’t field cleanly. That’s a difficult play no matter what. Probably a little harder for a guy more used to playing up the middle on the infield. Even though Loftin has also spent plenty of time at third, fielding those types of scorchers at first is a different animal what happens at the hot corner.

Given that extra out, the Orioles capitalized two batters later when Ryan Mountcastle hit a grounder deep in the hole at short. Witt made a nifty play to field the ball and short-hopped the throw to first. Loftin couldn’t handle it and Baltimore siezed the lead.

Loftin has played a grand total of 62 innings at first base as a professional. All of his appearances game last season—22 innings in Omaha and 40 in the big leagues. Look, he’s a fine athlete and can probably play a decent enough first base. I just don’t think it’s a great idea to put the guy at the position in a late and close ballgame. Given his overall experience and the situation, it’s really a suboptimal call.

The other alternative would’ve been to move Salvador Perez to first and insert Freddy Fermin into the lineup. Although if Quatraro is planning on pulling Pasquantino for a pinch runner in late and close games, the Royals should really think hard about recalling Nick Pratto from Omaha. That gives them a defensive upgrade in the later innings at the positions. As we just witnessed, even at the lower end of the defensive spectrum, that can make quite a difference.

Would’ve Pasquantino or Perez made that pick on Witt’s throw? Can’t say. I do know I would’ve liked their chances over Loftin.

Making that move even more painful—before the failed scoop at first—was how that top of the eighth inning ended. After Hampson swiped second, the Royals had two runners in scoring position with no outs.

From Tom Tango who has done a ton of work on run expectancy, in the most recent era covering the years from 2010 to 2023, that situation yields just under two runs on average. A single run will score 85 percent of the time. The odds, as I’m sure DraftKings would’ve let you know, were very much in the Royals’ favor to break the deadlock.

It did not happen.

As noted, Perez grounded out to shortstop on a drawn-in infield for the first out. After the Orioles elected to walk MJ Melendez intentionally to load the bases, that brought up Hunter Renfroe, searching for his first hit of the season. He fished for a sinker down and out of the zone for the first strike. He then laid off another sinker just off the plate. At 1-1, he got a third sinker, this one just a bit down in the zone but over the heart of the dish and popped it up. Infield fly rule. Two down.

That was an especially brutal outcome given the situation, the count and the location of the third consecutive sinker. Expectations for Renfroe were fairly low to open the year and he’s done nothing to alter those.

It’s obviously early and Quatraro said after the game that Renfroe was pressing a little bit. Renfroe was an above-average hitter in four full seasons from 2018 to 2022. His production dipped to .233/.297/.416 last year, good for a 91 OPS+. The Royals gambled that that was just a speedbump but Renfroe is on the wrong side of 30. It’s more likely last year was the start of a decline than a random blip in production. If anything, the Royals should hedge their bets and consider dropping him lower in the order. Perhaps flipping him with Nelson Velázquez.

Loftin was up next. He fouled off the first pitch and then went fishing for back-to-back changeups out of the strike zone. Three pitches, three strikes, three outs…and no runs.

A brutal turn of events for a team preaching situational hitting in spring training.

How about a word (or several) in appreciation of Kyle Isbel? The guy has quietly been putting together solid plate appearances in the nine-hole. Hitting with one out in the top of the ninth with the Royals trailing 4-3, his job was simple, yet difficult: Get on base against the Orioles closer Craig Kimbrel.

Isbel fell behind 0-2 taking a pair of pitches on the lower reaches of the zone, one a four-seamer and the other a knuckle curve. Not bad takes at all, given the location and the objective.

Kimbrel went elevated for his next two pitches. Great idea after working low to change Isbel’s eye level and get him to fish for some elevated heat. Isbel let the first one pass—it was a touch too elevated—and then fouled off the second. The next pitch was a spiked knuckle curve to push the count to 2-2.

The sixth and final pitch of the plate appearance was a four-seamer that rode inside. However, Isbel was quick enough to flick his wrists and dump the ball into left for a single. It was 71 MPH off the bat and with a launch angle of 44 degrees, and with the Orioles outfield playing deep in a no-doubles defensive alignment, it found that no-man’s land that exists beyond the edge of the infield.

Isbel finished the night with just that one hit, but it was an important one. That meant Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr would have an opportunity to tie the game.

Before those two would have a chance, Quatraro went to his bench again and swapped out Isbel for Dairon Blanco. It’s the second time this season Quatraro has made this exact move.

Blanco, who looked a tad uncomfortable in his debut pinch-running appearance on Opening Day, immediately swiped second. Not satisfied, he stole third a few pitches later. Man, that throw from Rutschman was damn near perfect. It was so close. The call was safe, the review was inconclusive and the Royals had a runner on third.

The steal of third came during a fine plate appearance from Garcia. It was on a knuckle curve after a diet of five straight four-seamers, so it was the right pitch to run on. It moved the count to full. Garcia then fouled off another pitch before our Launch Angle Hero (50 degrees!) lofted a fly ball to deep left field. Blanco scored easily and the Royals tied it up.

A helluva manufactured run courtesy of a pair of great plate appearances and a pair of outstanding steals.

There was no one happier in the dugout than Nick Loftin.

The final pitch of the game was an 0-2 four-seamer from the hand of Nick Anderson to Jordan Westburg. The first two offerings were curves down in the zone. Perez set his glove well outside for the fateful fastball. Anderson missed his location. Westburg didn’t miss with his swing.

Get ‘em tomorrow boys.

Over 1,200 words and no mention of starter Michael Wacha who made his Royals debut, throwing five innings, striking out five and walking just one. He allowed three runs, all coming in the fourth when the Orioles went double, single and home run to start the inning. A poor stretch against the heart of the Baltimore order. That’ll happen. Rutschman followed by Anthony Santander followed by Ryan Mountcastle is nightmare fuel for pitchers.

Other than that, Wacha was what we expected. The changeup generated the majority of his swings and misses (seven out of 10 were on the pitch). His four-seamer was a tick hotter than his average from last season. He spun his curve in the zone for strikes, throwing seven of the 11 on the first pitch of a plate appearance. The sinker and cut fastball were around the zone, but he avoided hard contact on those pitches for the most part.

Wacha didn’t get the quality start, going only five innings and 72 pitches. He probably had enough in the tank to go at least one more inning but Quatraro pulled him just before he was due to face the Rutschman-Santander-Mountcastle gauntlet for the third time. Probably the right move.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that today is Election Day in Jackson County. Maybe “Election Day” isn’t technically accurate since in many municipalities across the county, the question of enacting a 3/8 cent sales tax (and yes, read the language on the ballot…despite what John Sherman and the rest of the crew say, it’s a new tax) is the only thing up for a vote.

I thought this article from the Washington Post accurately detailed how we got here if you’re looking for a recap heading into the election.

You obviously know where I stand on this issue, but ultimately my opinion counts for nothing as I don’t have a vote. With the polls probably open while you’re reading this, the only thing I can add at this late stage is that if you are a resident of Jackson County, I encourage you to get out and cast a ballot and make your voice heard. No matter where you fall on this issue. Our democracy allows us this privilege, and ultimately, depends on us to exercise that.

Plus, this thing is going down to the wire. It could go either way. Maybe your vote decides the thing.