Grading the Royals' offseason
The Cactus League roster is set. Many familiar names are back, but there are a few new guys in the mix. Let's look at the work the Royals did this winter and assign a letter grade!
Pitchers and catchers have reported across baseball. Two starting pitchers are already battling injury. (Frankie Montas will undergo shoulder surgery and will miss most—if not all—of the season and Jacob deGrom was held out with tightness of his side.) Grainy cell phone video from beat writers is populating Twitter feeds at an unhealthy rate. Yes, reader…baseball is back.
But before we fully close the book on the offseason, let’s take a moment to reflect on the moves the Royals made to get to this point. It felt like a low-key winter for the team, but the decisions that were made will point this franchise in one direction or another for years to come.
October-November
Luke Weaver selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.
Tyler Zuber selected by the Arizona Diamondbacks off waivers.
Gabe Speier selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.
Released Sebastian Rivero.
Brent Rooker selected by the Oakland Athletics off waivers.
Jake Brentz granted Free Agency.
The early portion of the offseason is all about assembling the roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft and the Winter Meetings. They lost four players to waivers, released one outright and elected not to tender a contract to Brentz, making him a free agent. He had Tommy John surgery last July.
A few other things happened in this month I’ll touch on in a bit.
December
Signed Ryan Yarbrough as a free agent.
Signed Brooks Kriske as a free agent.
As part of a 3-team trade, traded Wyatt Mills to the Boston Red Sox. Received Jacob Wallace (minors) from the Boston Red Sox.
Signed Mike Mayers as a free agent.
Signed Nick Wittgren as a free agent.
Signed Jordan Lyles as a free agent.
December was about pitching. You’re underwhelmed. I get it.
Yarbrough comes from Tampa where he was the “load guy” for when they used an opener. No coincidence the Royals picked him up after adding a couple of Rays guys to their dugout. (Again…More on that in a moment!)
Lyles inked a two-year deal at $17 million that, in my mind, was more about serving notice to the younger pitchers that just because you were a highly-rated prospect, that doesn’t mean a major league spot will just be turned over. It has to be earned. It’s also a sign that the Royals think it’s going to take a bit to dig out from the wreckage the previous pitching coach (and manager) wrought.
The old-timey “innings eater” doesn’t really exist anymore, but Lyles fits the profile for that role in 2023. He’s coming off a season where he made 32 starts and threw 179 innings. That’s a year after making 30 starts (32 appearances) and totaling 180 innings.
Over the last two seasons, 19 pitchers have thrown more than 350 innings. Lyles is one of those guys. Cool. Of those 19 guys, Lyles has been the worst performer with an ERA+ of 88. Ahhh…the age-old struggle of quantity or quality. Most of those 19 guys traffic in both. The Royals seemingly can’t afford to.
Kriske, Mayers and Wittgren signed minor league deals and are in camp as non-roster invitees. Pitching remains the currency of baseball.
January
Ryan O'Hearn player rights sold to the Baltimore Orioles.
Signed Matt Beaty as a free agent.
Traded Michael A. Taylor to the Minnesota Twins. Received Steven Cruz (minors) and Evan Sisk (minors).
Traded Adalberto Mondesí to the Boston Red Sox. Received Josh Taylor.
Signed Johan Camargo as a free agent.
Signed Aroldis Chapman as a free agent.
Signed Matt Duffy as a free agent.
The trade market opened up in January and the Royals sent a strong signal with two separate deals. First, the trade of Taylor effectively handed the center field spot to either Kyle Isbel or Drew Waters. Isbel seems to have the early inside track on the job. Second, the deal sending Mondesi to Boston means that the shortstop job belongs to Bobby Witt Jr.
The Royals did net a trio of bullpen arms in the deals and I can’t seem to emphasize this enough but the club is expecting quite the revolving door in the bullpen this summer. They are stockpiling arms in the hope that they’ll find a breakthrough or two. Besides, they’ll need them. Taylor will go right into the bullpen mix (provided he’s healthy, which all indications are, he is) and Cruz and Sisk will open the year in the minors.
Beaty, Camargo and Duffy are depth pieces. I could see Camargo breaking camp with the club. He and Duffy both featured in my first roster projection a few weeks ago.
February
Signed Zack Greinke as a free agent.
Anthony Misiewicz player rights sold to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Signed Franmil Reyes as a free agent.
February is the time to make the final adjustments before camp starts. In that regard, it was absolutely necessary for the Royals to bring back Greinke on a one-year deal. The pitching still feels paper-thin and they’re going to need every inning he can give.
Let’s chat about Reyes for a moment as his signing was announced on Wednesday. It’s a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Reyes is a 27 year old right-handed hitter with a career .251/.313/.470 output, good for a 112 OPS+. He’s played parts of five big league seasons and finished with above-average offensive production in four of them. The one he didn’t? That would be last year when he cratered to the tune of .221/.273/.365 splitting time between Cleveland, who DFA’d him in August, and the Cubs. His strikeout rate has hovered around the 28 percent mark, but ballooned to 32 percent in 2021. That was acceptable as he still clubbed 30 bombs and posted a career-best .238 ISO. Last year, his strikeout rate remained elevated, but his power completely evaporated. In roughly the same number of plate appearances as ‘21, Reyes finished with just 14 dingers.
Reyes doesn’t really have a position. To call him a below-average outfielder would be kind. He profiles as a designated hitter and could be a useful one in a platoon. Well, maybe not a strict platoon, per se. But if he’s on the roster, he’ll most definitely be in there against lefties.
The power looks fine no matter what. If anything, he gives the Royals options as a pinch hitter in games he doesn’t start. Last year, Reyes didn’t feature any kind of platoon split. He was poor against lefties and right-handed pitching. According to Statcast, his hard hit numbers were down. Given the Royals success in revamping their hitting program, Reyes is exactly the type of player the team should be targeting: A young hitter who has found success in the majors but has just stumbled for whatever reason. It’s easy to have confidence that Drew Saylor and staff can unlock whatever held Reyes back in 2022.
I figure he’ll rake in the thin Cactus League air and win that spot on the roster.
Ok, let’s have the verdict…
If I were going to assign a letter grade to the transactions above, I’d probably hang a D+ on it. I can squint enough to see potential in some of the bullpen arms and Reyes is a fine bargain-bin signing. There’s just not enough there to make much of a difference.
However, those weren’t the only moves the Royals made…
Off the field
Underwhelmed by the names above? Do they not move the needle for you? Don’t despair because they weren’t the biggest—or most important—transactions the Royals made this winter. Those would be the hiring of Matt Quatraro as manager along with Brian Sweeney as pitching coach, Zach Bove as assistant pitching coach and Paul Hoover as the bench coach. Along with the continuing expansion of the sports sciences departments, these aren’t sexy moves by any stretch, but they’re necessary.
The Royals have been in a fog of malaise since the World Series core departed following the 2017 season. I don’t want to say that there was a laziness about the club. I think leadership was simply out of ideas. Retreads in the dugout contributed to that.
To say there’s a new era afoot doesn’t do the change justice.
We have seen plenty of comments saying this sort of thing this winter. Remember how we all marveled at the cohesiveness and attitude of the clubhouse during those championship seasons? The clubhouse the last few years was just an uptight mess. That’s not what you want when you’re bringing young players through the system who you will need to count on to get back to the playoffs.
As you know from subscribing to this newsletter (thanks!), I’m extremely high on these hires. For me, it moves the offseason transaction grade from a D+ to a B-. It’s not overwhelming, but better than average. And for a team coming off a 97 loss season and another last place finish, that’s a positive step forward. Maybe we’ll look back at the end of the summer and think I was too harsh. That would be nice, wouldn’t it?
The important thing is, changes were made and for the first time in a long time, there’s a fresh feeling around the club. It feels good, doesn’t it?
As always, good job, Craig. The Reyes signing caught me off-guard. I knew he tanked last year, but I think back to just a couple years ago when he came up to bat for Cleveland and scared me to death. Gosh, if the Royals hitting coaches could unlock something there, whoowee! At least worth a low-cost (I assume) shot.
Mr. B, this idiot typist totally agrees with your comments about the F. Reyes signing. If nothing else, he used to pound Royals pitching. Curious that it took a complete management overhaul to FINALLY give up on Ryan O'Hearn.