A Royals roster projection

A look ahead at how the Opening Day roster could shake out.

With the annual rite of Truck Day just days away and the opening of camp in about two weeks, we are so close to actual baseball happening. The Cactus League schedule commences in about three and a half weeks. The World Baseball Classic will carry us through March.

Opening Day is 58 days away.

The pending addition of Zack Greinke to the roster (it’s happening!!) will likely put a pin on the Royals’ off-season moves. As such, now is the perfect time to take a stab at how the Royals roster will look on March 30 when they break the seal on the 2023 season against the Minnesota Twins at Kauffman Stadium. As usual, I’ll update these roster projections from time to time over the next couple of months.

Catcher

Salvador Perez
MJ Melendez

Honestly, doing a projection with this group is quite a challenge. There’s so much roster flexibility that it’s difficult to state with any kind of certainty who will start where on Opening Day and who will subsequently receive the most playing time at a particular position.

Except at catcher.

Perez will remain the primary backstop in 2023. At least that will be the plan when they break camp—we all know injuries and general wear and tear can, and will, happen. We also know that Perez is some kind of superhuman catching specimen, so…unless an asteroid slams into the earth, Perez will get the majority of the innings behind the plate.

Melendez will continue to rotate back there for games when Perez gets the half-day off at designated hitter. I figure that will be in the neighborhood of 20-25 percent of games. It’s quite the paring, especially when it comes to catching framing runs. According to Baseball Savant, Perez was the fourth-worst catcher in framing last year, worth -8 runs. Melendez was second-worst at -12 runs. (The sample size of catchers was 60.) Both receivers had extremely low percentages of called strikes—Perez had a 43 percent strike rate, Melendez was at 41.8 percent.

Hey, I’m with you…Defensive metrics are imperfect. Catching defensive metrics, especially so. Still, there’s something about these numbers. They’re so consistently poor for Perez. And we saw Melendez struggle back there last year.

I thought about adding Freddy Fermin as a third catcher on the roster, just as a potential defensive upgrade. There were times last summer when the Royals carried three catchers and if the Royals decide that Melendez absolutely has to stay in the outfield, that need would come into play again. My methodology will be clear in a moment; for the time being, I elected to keep him off the Opening Day roster.

Infield

Vinnie Pasquantino
Michael Massey
Bobby Witt Jr.
Hunter Dozier

Johan Camargo
Matt Duffy
Nicky Lopez

This is a stacked group. Stacked as in a great deal of quantity. The first four are who I expect to start, going around the horn. The next three are reserves. Yes, I’m listing three infield reserves. More on that in a moment.

Meanwhile, the name you have certainly noticed (and are saying a few choice words under your breath because of it) is Dozier. He’s the third baseman. Look, he’s making $7.25 million in 2023, is signed for another season beyond this one and the Royals aren’t really into acknowledging sunk costs the way larger market teams will. Dozier is going to play somewhere…maybe third is where he does less defensive damage. (Sorry. Like you, I’m trying to wrap my mind around this.)

The non-roster invitees in Duffy and especially Camargo make the club as insurance for the Royals at the hot corner and at second base where I don’t think they’re fully sold on Massey. The Royals don’t want to move Witt off short and that absolutely makes sense. If you’re going to maximize the value of their best player (or the player with the highest ceiling), you keep him at short.

Despite the rumors that cropped up at the end of last week about the White Sox interest in Lopez, his spot on the roster is secure. There wasn’t much sense in a roster with Lopez and Adalberto Mondesi. Mondesi got his change of scenery, so Lopez is a lock here.

With Camargo, Duffy and Lopez as bench options, the Royals have plenty of flexibility to keep Witt at short should the infielders on either side of him falter. Plus, these are all veterans which means the bench won’t contain young players losing plate appearances. There’s a method to the Royals’ madness.

The wild card in this is Mariel Garcia. If Dozier tanks (zip it!) and Garcia posts in Triple-A, the Royals could slide Witt back over to third and bring Garcia up to play short. For an Opening Day projection however, Garcia, who has just 209 plate appearances above Double-A, will get most of the ‘23 season to establish himself as a prospect in Omaha.

Outfield

MJ Melendez
Kyle Isbel
Edward Olivares

Hunter Dozier
Nate Eaton
Drew Waters

Like the infield, I’m listing the players by position, going from left to right. Reserves are in the next group.

When Michael A. Taylor was dealt to Minnesota, I wrote that the trade opened up space for Waters to take over in center. While it’s possible he’s the guy, it sure seems like the Royals are going to give Isbel every chance to win the job in center. That pushes Waters to more of a rotational role in the outfield.

The Royals point to the Statcast metrics that show Isbel is among the best in the majors when it comes to getting a jump. In fact, Isbel was rated as the best in 2022. According to Statcast, Isbel got 4.8 feet more than the average outfield on his jump (defined as feet covered in the correct direction), the most in baseball. His burst, which is feet covered in any direction, was 3 feet better than average.

Where Isbel gets dinged, so to speak, is on his routes. They’re not always the best. But his jump times are so exceptional, he has the ability to make up for that deficiency. Add it together and Isbel was worth 11 Outs Above Average, good for fifth best among outfielders last year.

From the plots above (I drew the arrow from Isbel’s point to the window with his information), you can see that based on reaction and route, Isbel is an above-average defensive outfielder. And we know how the Royals emphasize that center field defense. So he gets the Opening Day start. Whether or not he can keep the position will be contingent on if he can improve on last year’s 70 OPS+.

Eaton’s ability to shift between the infield and outfield gets him the final bench spot on the roster for now. Although the Royals could decide to keep him fresh in Triple-A to open the season and opt for that third catcher. There are a lot of variations with this roster.

Dozier is also in this mix. I know. Please send your complaints to the home office.

Rotation

Brady Singer
Zack Greinke
Daniel Lynch
Jordan Lyles
Brad Keller

This is in order of how they’ll line up for the start of the regular season. By re-signing Greinke (the official announcement should be coming within a day or so), the Royals added another arm to their stable of starting pitchers. It’s an interesting gambit, seeing as how the Royals previously secured the services of Lyles and with so many young starters populating the 40-man. What the club appears to be doing is throwing down the gauntlet to the young pitchers: Nothing will be handed out. If you want a spot in the rotation, you have to earn it.

Lynch is on my shortlist for rotation candidates because he’s still the one with the highest ceiling, Singer included. If he can locate that fastball and figure out how to put hitters away with the slider and the curve—both still rate as potentially plus pitches—he would slot in behind Singer. He’s third in my rotation because of how the schedule breaks. The Royals open with three against the Twins before hosting the Blue Jays for four. The top of Toronto’s order is stacked with dangerous right-handed hitters. Best of Lynch avoided that lineup.

Keller…meh. But the Royals decided to tender him a contract, so like Dozier in the infield, you have to find a spot for him. While he has durability issues and finished the 2022 season in the bullpen, he’s your fifth starter for the time being. (I have to keep reminding myself, this roster projection is for Opening Day, not who gets the most reps at what position.) Plus, unlike in previous seasons, the fifth starter will be in play almost from the jump. The Royals have one off day in the first two weeks of the season—the Friday after Opening Day.

Relievers

The Royals could have an interesting mix in the bullpen, a fifty-fifty split.

RIghties:
Scott Barlow
Taylor Clarke
Dylan Coleman
Josh Staumont

Lefties:
Aroldis Chapman
Amir Garrett
Josh Taylor
Ryan Yarbrough

Barlow is your closer, but Chapman will sniff some save opportunities. It’s not inconceivable to think that the Royals will roll with whatever gives them a majority platoon advantage in a save situation. Plus, he’s here to build value so the club can flip him at the deadline and he will receive every opportunity to do so.

Yarbrough is the most intriguing name from this group. Last year with Tampa, he made 20 appearances; nine starts. Of his 11 relief outings, nine came at the start of the second, third or fourth inning. If you are hankering for an opener, Yarbrough is your bulk guy. And don’t forget, new manager Matt Quatraro and bench coach Paul Hoover had Yarbrough on their club in Tampa, so they know exactly what he’s capable of and what he’s comfortable with. It’s possible he and Keller flip-flop roles at least to break camp. For now, he’s the swingman in this bullpen.

When looking at the pitching lineup, the key thing to remember will be minor league options. The Royals are going to be shuttling players back and forth all season long. Sometimes, the moves will be predicated on upcoming matchups. Other times, they will be made to give a player a break. And I fully expect Chapman and Garrett to be gone by the trade deadline. There’s going to be a ton of movement in both the rotation and the bullpen. There are 13 pitchers listed here. Last year, they used 29 different pitchers (not counting position players who chucked a couple of innings). This year, I fully expect them to top that number.