It would seem that Singer's the only guy on the rotation depth chart who would both make sense to deal and yield the talent in return to justify dealing him.
You definitely hit the nail on the head w/r/t that luck in driving in baserunners is likely unsustainable. KC, Arizona, and Cincinnati were all top 7 in BsR, which likely helped each club along in terms of hitting that ~16% rate, but expecting such luck to continue would be foolhardy. With three legit bats, one of whom has issues staying on the field, and the other a soon-to-be 35-year-old with maybe the most mileage on him in baseball who's a year removed from a campaign with an 86 wRC+, the Royals need A TON of lineup help that isn't likely to come from a down farm if they want to show that 2024 wasn't a flash in the pan, a la 2003.
I think the largest difference with ‘03 is that the Royals have the pitching now to keep them in games. But, yeah…They have to improve the lineup through trades or free agency in order to give themselves a chance to compete again. Credit to Picollo and the front office to recognize that standing pat (like we’ve seen in previous seasons) isn’t a viable option.
Oh, the pitching staff is better, but they also enjoyed a very healthy season from two pitchers, Ragans and Wacha, who have pretty checkered pasts health-wise. Wacha hadn't shouldered a workload comparable to his 166.2 innings in 2024 since 2017, and Ragans's history is WELL DOCUMENTED. If I'm being honest, I don't love the Wacha deal for this reason (age/injury history), but I'm aware I'm in the minority on that matter. They don't have the org depth to cover for injuries because player dev is still woefully deficient.
I'd posit that they got like an 80th-90th percentile outcome overall this past season thanks to Sal returning to 2021 production levels, Witt having one of the two best seasons in franchise history, and the rotation being as good/healthy as it was. If I was betting money on repeats in those three key areas, I don't know that I'd bet serious money on any of them being repeated in 2025. Sure, I think Witt's good for somewhere in the 5-8 fWAR neighborhood, but 10+ is a big ask. I'd don't know that I'd put money down on BWJ one way or the other, but I'd bet against repeat performances from Perez, Ragans, Wacha, and Lugo, and if they all regress to the mean, better performance has to come from somewhere else.
I guess I'm just generally concerned that lightning doesn't like to strike twice, and going dumpster diving for offensive production when it's not likely to come from within (my general belief is that Witt and Pasquantino--to the varying degrees to which they've succeeded--have succeeded in spite of the org and because they came in as these players) means you're more likely acquiring the Garrett Hampsons, Hunter Renfroes, Tommy Phams, Adam Fraziers, Nelson Velasquezes, Robbie Grossmans, and Yuli Gurriels of the world, which *looking at the Royals' position players from 2024* did not go well.
I'm not sure that attributing all of their success in driving in runs to luck because IN GENERAL that stat is luck-driven is necessarily accurate. They were 8th best in the majors in hard hit %, and 4th best in average exit velo. Hitting the ball hard tends to take some of the luck out of BABIP.
Add to that the fact that the team's best run producer also led the majors in Sac Flies in spite of missing the last month of the season. It seems like Vinnie does that thing announcers love to say players need to do, which is to make sure they get the ball in the air with a runner on 3rd, and the stats support that conclusion. My intuition is that approach will depress a player's non-RBI stats but boost their RBI totals, and it doesn't seem to me to be a luck-based phenomenon. Whether it's a smart approach is open for debate; maybe the Royals score more runs over the course of a season if he just tries to maximize his HR total without worrying about the game situation, but my point is that it's not a question of luck that is likely to regress to the mean.
I suspect if we asked JJ, he'd say that he wants to add OBP skill because he wants the guys who have shown the ability to drive-in runners to have more opportunities, not because he's worried the percentage of baserunners who score will fall.
Moving past Pasquantino not being the team's best run producer (Witt had 202 runs created to Vinnie's 142), I don't think anyone here is attributing all of their success in driving in runs to luck. But to end up 1st in baseball in baserunners driven in despite being 19th in team OBP would certainly indicate luck was a factor, along with stuff like running the bases well, which I accounted for in my criticism when crediting them with being top 7 in BsR alongside the other two teams who excelled at driving in baserunners. The fact of the matter is variance happens year to year, and there are tons of reasons for this. A contact-oriented approach can turn out a 2015 Royals club that wins 95 games. It can also turn out the 2016 club with virtually the same roster that only won 81. Then the buzzword was sequencing, and for two years, the narrative was that the Royals had some mystical control over sequencing that had them able to outperform offensive expectations due to some clutch gene. Well, that came crashing back down to earth in 2016.
You come back to an ability to drive in runners being a skill, but that's much more of a byproduct of circumstance, which is why teams stopped signing guys based on RBI totals more than two decades ago, and it's why it's not a defining statistic when it comes to MVP voting anymore. Sacrifice Flies can obviously be credited to approach, but they can just as easily be attributable to situation and to volume. For instance, Arizona, KC, and Cincy were all amongst the top 10 in triples with Arizona and KC being #2 and #3. It's probably not a coincidence when you have more instances in which a player hits a triple that there are more occasions for sac flies, regardless of approach. Moreover, the Royals were bottom three in strikeouts (Arizona had the 7th-fewest), so by volume, they simply had more chances to have sacrifice flies because they weren't striking out.
JJ wants to add OBP because the Royals were not good at getting on base. Not getting on base means you're making outs, and there are only 27 of them. If you want to run with the big dogs, you have to put runners on, and the issue was that the Royals basically had three real major-league bats, which was EXPOSED in the last two months of the season and the playoffs.
If JJ Picollo is so concerned about OBP, and I agree with him, he should start by giving fines to players like Isbell and Garcia every time they hit the ball in the air ! And maybe work on Melendez' swing ( he looks more like Dozier every day... always the same approach).... what i am really saying is they have a lot of in-house work to do to get guys on base for Bobby Vinnt and Salvy to hit home.
I’d take Garcia getting a little more loft because I think he has some untapped power in that bat. And I suspect that Melendez is retooling that swing as we speak. At least, I hope he’s retooling that swing.
I just thought if Garcia and Isbell cut back on the loft they would get on base more....in the long term I think Garcia will develop into a fine all-round hitter. Be nice to know what Melendez is really up to this off season...
I think Bubic's so called success as a starter before he got hurt was because he was overthrowing....which helped his result a bit...but got him hurt. I just don't think he has the mentality to develop the pitches and approach to to be a successful starter....he has the ability...just not the mentality. I do think Lynch does has the ability and is growing the mentality to be a successful starter.
They can't afford to trade Bubic Lynch or Marsh because they need the depth. Singer...they need to extend him or trade him at the deadline ....
The goal isn't to maximize Singer's return, it's to maximize his value. Maybe the way to do that is to trade him but maybe it's better to keep him as your 4th starter.
I think Kyle Wright is the wild card...if he pitches we'll then can slot in for singer to be traded... without the Royals creating a whole in the rotation while netting them one or 2 bondafide prospects in return... But in reality the Royals need to get thier minor league conveyor belt of prospects up and running if they are gonna sustain anything at the big league level!
I wouldn't put it down to nostalgia. There was evidence that Bubic was on the cusp of developing into a very good starter. You never want to lose someone to Tommy John, but this one was especially cruel.
Now we get to see how nearly two years out of the rotation has impacted his development.
It would seem that Singer's the only guy on the rotation depth chart who would both make sense to deal and yield the talent in return to justify dealing him.
You definitely hit the nail on the head w/r/t that luck in driving in baserunners is likely unsustainable. KC, Arizona, and Cincinnati were all top 7 in BsR, which likely helped each club along in terms of hitting that ~16% rate, but expecting such luck to continue would be foolhardy. With three legit bats, one of whom has issues staying on the field, and the other a soon-to-be 35-year-old with maybe the most mileage on him in baseball who's a year removed from a campaign with an 86 wRC+, the Royals need A TON of lineup help that isn't likely to come from a down farm if they want to show that 2024 wasn't a flash in the pan, a la 2003.
I think the largest difference with ‘03 is that the Royals have the pitching now to keep them in games. But, yeah…They have to improve the lineup through trades or free agency in order to give themselves a chance to compete again. Credit to Picollo and the front office to recognize that standing pat (like we’ve seen in previous seasons) isn’t a viable option.
Oh, the pitching staff is better, but they also enjoyed a very healthy season from two pitchers, Ragans and Wacha, who have pretty checkered pasts health-wise. Wacha hadn't shouldered a workload comparable to his 166.2 innings in 2024 since 2017, and Ragans's history is WELL DOCUMENTED. If I'm being honest, I don't love the Wacha deal for this reason (age/injury history), but I'm aware I'm in the minority on that matter. They don't have the org depth to cover for injuries because player dev is still woefully deficient.
I'd posit that they got like an 80th-90th percentile outcome overall this past season thanks to Sal returning to 2021 production levels, Witt having one of the two best seasons in franchise history, and the rotation being as good/healthy as it was. If I was betting money on repeats in those three key areas, I don't know that I'd bet serious money on any of them being repeated in 2025. Sure, I think Witt's good for somewhere in the 5-8 fWAR neighborhood, but 10+ is a big ask. I'd don't know that I'd put money down on BWJ one way or the other, but I'd bet against repeat performances from Perez, Ragans, Wacha, and Lugo, and if they all regress to the mean, better performance has to come from somewhere else.
I guess I'm just generally concerned that lightning doesn't like to strike twice, and going dumpster diving for offensive production when it's not likely to come from within (my general belief is that Witt and Pasquantino--to the varying degrees to which they've succeeded--have succeeded in spite of the org and because they came in as these players) means you're more likely acquiring the Garrett Hampsons, Hunter Renfroes, Tommy Phams, Adam Fraziers, Nelson Velasquezes, Robbie Grossmans, and Yuli Gurriels of the world, which *looking at the Royals' position players from 2024* did not go well.
I'm not sure that attributing all of their success in driving in runs to luck because IN GENERAL that stat is luck-driven is necessarily accurate. They were 8th best in the majors in hard hit %, and 4th best in average exit velo. Hitting the ball hard tends to take some of the luck out of BABIP.
Add to that the fact that the team's best run producer also led the majors in Sac Flies in spite of missing the last month of the season. It seems like Vinnie does that thing announcers love to say players need to do, which is to make sure they get the ball in the air with a runner on 3rd, and the stats support that conclusion. My intuition is that approach will depress a player's non-RBI stats but boost their RBI totals, and it doesn't seem to me to be a luck-based phenomenon. Whether it's a smart approach is open for debate; maybe the Royals score more runs over the course of a season if he just tries to maximize his HR total without worrying about the game situation, but my point is that it's not a question of luck that is likely to regress to the mean.
I suspect if we asked JJ, he'd say that he wants to add OBP skill because he wants the guys who have shown the ability to drive-in runners to have more opportunities, not because he's worried the percentage of baserunners who score will fall.
Moving past Pasquantino not being the team's best run producer (Witt had 202 runs created to Vinnie's 142), I don't think anyone here is attributing all of their success in driving in runs to luck. But to end up 1st in baseball in baserunners driven in despite being 19th in team OBP would certainly indicate luck was a factor, along with stuff like running the bases well, which I accounted for in my criticism when crediting them with being top 7 in BsR alongside the other two teams who excelled at driving in baserunners. The fact of the matter is variance happens year to year, and there are tons of reasons for this. A contact-oriented approach can turn out a 2015 Royals club that wins 95 games. It can also turn out the 2016 club with virtually the same roster that only won 81. Then the buzzword was sequencing, and for two years, the narrative was that the Royals had some mystical control over sequencing that had them able to outperform offensive expectations due to some clutch gene. Well, that came crashing back down to earth in 2016.
You come back to an ability to drive in runners being a skill, but that's much more of a byproduct of circumstance, which is why teams stopped signing guys based on RBI totals more than two decades ago, and it's why it's not a defining statistic when it comes to MVP voting anymore. Sacrifice Flies can obviously be credited to approach, but they can just as easily be attributable to situation and to volume. For instance, Arizona, KC, and Cincy were all amongst the top 10 in triples with Arizona and KC being #2 and #3. It's probably not a coincidence when you have more instances in which a player hits a triple that there are more occasions for sac flies, regardless of approach. Moreover, the Royals were bottom three in strikeouts (Arizona had the 7th-fewest), so by volume, they simply had more chances to have sacrifice flies because they weren't striking out.
JJ wants to add OBP because the Royals were not good at getting on base. Not getting on base means you're making outs, and there are only 27 of them. If you want to run with the big dogs, you have to put runners on, and the issue was that the Royals basically had three real major-league bats, which was EXPOSED in the last two months of the season and the playoffs.
If JJ Picollo is so concerned about OBP, and I agree with him, he should start by giving fines to players like Isbell and Garcia every time they hit the ball in the air ! And maybe work on Melendez' swing ( he looks more like Dozier every day... always the same approach).... what i am really saying is they have a lot of in-house work to do to get guys on base for Bobby Vinnt and Salvy to hit home.
I’d take Garcia getting a little more loft because I think he has some untapped power in that bat. And I suspect that Melendez is retooling that swing as we speak. At least, I hope he’s retooling that swing.
I just thought if Garcia and Isbell cut back on the loft they would get on base more....in the long term I think Garcia will develop into a fine all-round hitter. Be nice to know what Melendez is really up to this off season...
I don't know what you're talking about, MJ's swing is a work of art...like something out of Picasso's cubism period.
You've painted quite the image for me.
I think Bubic's so called success as a starter before he got hurt was because he was overthrowing....which helped his result a bit...but got him hurt. I just don't think he has the mentality to develop the pitches and approach to to be a successful starter....he has the ability...just not the mentality. I do think Lynch does has the ability and is growing the mentality to be a successful starter.
They can't afford to trade Bubic Lynch or Marsh because they need the depth. Singer...they need to extend him or trade him at the deadline ....
I’ll never question a guy’s mentality (usually) because we just don’t know. I can’t say about Bubic either way. Haven’t heard he doesn’t have it.
As for Singer, if you’re looking for the best return, you deal him now. I don’t think he’s an extension candidate.
Let's move him then!
The goal isn't to maximize Singer's return, it's to maximize his value. Maybe the way to do that is to trade him but maybe it's better to keep him as your 4th starter.
I think Kyle Wright is the wild card...if he pitches we'll then can slot in for singer to be traded... without the Royals creating a whole in the rotation while netting them one or 2 bondafide prospects in return... But in reality the Royals need to get thier minor league conveyor belt of prospects up and running if they are gonna sustain anything at the big league level!
OBP!OBP! I am down. Hope JJ can figure out an aquisition that isn't too painful.
I am silly nostalgic on Bubic's '23 starts (was it really only 2?) but awesome if he ends up a high end starter. (fingers crossed)
I wouldn't put it down to nostalgia. There was evidence that Bubic was on the cusp of developing into a very good starter. You never want to lose someone to Tommy John, but this one was especially cruel.
Now we get to see how nearly two years out of the rotation has impacted his development.
Bubic had an outstanding start the last game of the 2022 season. Mike Matheny’s last game.
I had forgotten about that one. But I shut out most of the Matheny era for my sanity.
Bubic had an outstanding start to end the 2022 season. Mike Matheny’s last game.