Getting on base will remain a priority for the Royals

JJ Picollo hit the GM Meetings in San Antonio, fresh off solidifying his starting rotation and plotting how to improve the team's offense.

We’ve already discussed the Royals offseason priority of adding more on base (on base-ability?) to their lineup. At the GM meetings in San Antonio last week, Royals GM JJ Picollo was still discussing that need. He talked with David Laurila at FanGraphs:

“We need to be a little more dynamic offensively, and by that I mean we need to get on base at a higher rate than we did this year. We’re trying to target players we can lengthen out our lineup with, whether it’s someone at the top, in the middle, or toward the back end.

…

It (OBP) comes in different shapes and sizes,” Picollo agreed when I brought up how Luis Arraez does it differently than, say, a LaMonte Wade Jr. “Arraez is a very unique player in that it’s all in batted ball. He gets a lot of hits. And then there are guys who have the propensity to walk more. I don’t think it matters which way they do it, it’s just that they’re able to get on base, and that’s what we need to be a more consistent offense.”

It’s important to note this, even though it’s already been bouncing around, because by mentioning it himself at the GM meetings last week, this seems more than empty promises or lip service from Picollo. This is more like a statement of intent. The Royals are seeking a guy (or guys) who can get on base. This is their offseason priority now that Michael Wacha is back in the rotation.

Last season, the Royals team OBP was .306, which was 19th in the majors and a few points below the league-average OBP of .312. Despite the challenge of getting on base, the Royals still scored 4.54 runs per game which was 13th best in the majors and just above the league average of 4.39.

I’ve pointed this out before, but it’s such an amazing stat that it bears repeating. In 2024 the Royals scored 16.6 percent of all of their baserunners, a rate that was, by far, the best in the majors. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks joined them north of 16 percent. (They finished at 16.2 percent followed by the Cincinnati Reds at 15.5 percent.) That success was built on the bats of their big three run producers: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez.

Their percentages of baserunners scored is a rate that brings some variance from year to year. Just because it’s high in 2024 does not mean, even with the bulk of the regular lineup returning, that a rate like that is assured. I’d argue that it’s the opposite. Their 16.6 percent of base runners scored was so elevated that the Royals analytics department is betting that it’s going to decline in 2025. Hence, the desperate need to add guys to the lineup who can get on base.

The Diamondbacks who were second to the Royals in percentage of baserunners scored ended up leading the majors in OBP with a .337 rate. That translated to 5.47 runs per game. A full run better than the Royals in 2024. Crazy how that correlates, right?

I’m all for Picollo openly discussing his team’s need for OBP. It’s something I’ve been pleading for the Royals to pay attention to ever since I started writing about them way back when. I know Picollo said he’s not particularly choosy about where in the lineup that OBP should live, but if they could add a quality leadoff guy to hit ahead of their power trio and then another, slightly lesser OBP-quality guy down in the middle or toward the bottom of the lineup, this would position the club for a repeat run at October baseball.

Picollo also discussed his starting rotation as detailed by Anne Rogers:

“We’re very comfortable with our starting pitching right now. You’ve got Wacha, [Seth] Lugo, [Cole] Ragans, [Brady] Singer, [Alec] Marsh. Kris Bubic was in the bullpen this past year, but we believe he’s a starter. Daniel Lynch went to the bullpen and did a nice job, but he’s another one who could be a starter. We don’t expect to be in the market for a starter moving forward. We’re going to focus on some other things.”

I believe this is the first time since Bubic returned to the team following his Tommy John surgery that he’s been mentioned as a starter. That makes me happy because it makes so much sense. They used him as a starter during his minor league rehab to build up his strength. He then shifted to the bullpen to manage his workload. At the start of next season, almost two years removed from surgery, the gloves should be off. That means Bubic should get an opportunity to start again and let it fly.

I have no idea how that turns out because basing a projection on how he did in two starts in 2023 seems foolish, even if those appearances did represent a nice step forward. (He was clearly pitching hurt in his third and final start in ’23.) But I also know that he had success in the bullpen at the end of the 2024 season. If, for some reason, he washes out as a starter, he still has a spot on this roster.

The same can be said for Lynch, other than the rehab and TJ surgery chatter. Lynch showed some positive strides working out of the bullpen at the end of the season. Can he take that and make it work in the rotation? There’s only one way to find out. The good news is that, like Bubic, should he fail as a starter, he could be a solid option out of the bullpen again.

The one name missing from that mix is obviously Kyle Wright who is set to make his return after missing all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery. I wouldn’t read too much into that omission at this point. He’s still in the mix, but it really wouldn’t be surprising if he landed in the bullpen. He remains the Royals’ great unknown with a range of outcomes.

That surplus of starting pitching led to the first meaty Royals rumor of the offseason. From The Athletic:

If the Royals explore the trade market for offensive help, league sources suggested that they would listen to offers for pitchers such as left-hander Kris Bubic and right-hander Alec Marsh.

While it’s fun to see the Royals in trade rumors in the offseason, I’m always a bit skeptical of “league sources” like this. Yes, the Royals could look to deal Bubic and/or Marsh. On one level, it makes sense to see these two names floated as they look like back-of-the-rotation candidates at the moment on a staff where the top four starters will return. On the other hand, it just feels so…obvious. In the way an outsider looks at a roster and points at a couple of guys they perceive to be fringe and declare, “Those are the guys the Royals will trade!”

I’m also skeptical because I’m not sure either brings back the return that would be desired. Bubic, as noted above, seemed to break out before his injury but by the time he makes another start in the majors, it will be almost two years between that particular assignment. Marsh doesn’t have Bubic’s upside but he does have club control for a few more seasons. But will teams make a play for a pitcher like Marsh when there’s a guy like Michael Lorenzen on the open market? He would be a little more expensive for sure, but you can be fairly certain what you’re going to get and he won’t cost you a player or two.

You know and I know and everyone knows that if the Royals are looking to net the largest return possible while dealing a starter, that pitcher would be Singer. He comes with a much more proven track record and two years of club control. The salary is higher because of that track record. But the return would probably be more along the lines of that OBP bat the Royals are searching for.