Three Up, Three Down: Running wild

The offense finds its two-out mojo, Bobby Witt Jr. commits grand larceny on the bases and Brad Keller shoves once again in leading the Royals to a smooth victory over the Rangers

Sometimes, you just have to laugh.

It’s been a tough start to the 2023 season. Prior to Wednesday, the Royals had won just three games. Their run differential of -1.9 runs per game could have been worse, but thank goodness for the pitching. The hitters are last in on base percentage, second to last in slugging and second to last with a 59 OPS+.

There’s average. There’s below average. And then there’s the Royals.

It doesn’t have to be this way, though. The young bats may struggle from time to time, but they’re not this poor at run production. The numbers are the numbers and I’m not sure I buy into the expected stats and hard-hit rate and bad luck and all that, but I do subscribe to the idea that the Royals aren’t a truly terrible offense. They’re capable of doing some damage.

Finally. The offense exploded for a season-high 10 runs on Wednesday against Nathan Evoldi and the Texas Rangers. A 10-1 victory. A laugher. With the win, they salvaged the series finale and polished off a 3-3 road trip. Not too shabby when it’s framed that way.

They did it on the back of 14 hits (also a season-high), of which four went for extra bases. It was a complete team effort with every starter save Salvador Perez picking up a hit. Perez and Michael Massey were the only starters to not score a run.

It’s been a long time coming. Can’t say it was worth the wait, but it was an enjoyable evening.

Cue more laughter. It’s good for you.

Don’t you just love a two-out rally? Those are just the best. It’s like giving your opponent just enough hope—one pitch and escape is possible!—and then pulling it away in the worst possible manner. Yeah. Those are fantastic.

So it was a lot of fun on Wednesday night as the Royals strung together a couple of two-out rallies to open the scoring in what ultimately turned into a laugher. In the top of the second, Franmil Reyes hit a single with one out. After Michael Massey struck out, Edward Olivares and Nicky Lopez singles were followed by an MJ Melendez double. The Olivares single was one that really should’ve been an out. Whatever. You create your own luck. Boom. Five pitches and the Royals hung three runs on the board to take the lead.

Two innings later with two outs Lopez doubled, Melendez singled and Bobby Witt Jr laced a triple. Boom. Boom. Eight pitches and two more runs.

Like I said…two out rallies are great. Maybe it’s just me, but in the pitch clock era, those now seem to just snowball out of nowhere. No more stepping out, stepping off, messing with your batting gloves, adjusting your cap and doing yoga to center oneself. Now, it’s like the movie villain cutting the brake lines in the car. Everything is normal…until it’s a catastrophe. These rallies seem much more sudden—and devastating—now. I think I like them even more.

Of all the new rules, I figured the Royals would be taking advantage of the pickoff limits and the increased sizes of the bases to run like crazy this season. Through the first 12 games, that hasn’t really materialized. There are a number of reasons for this; one of the more obvious ones is that their team on-base percentage of .258 is the worst in the majors. You can’t steal second if you don’t reach first. That’s not sabermetrics. That’s just logic.

Anyway, the Royals found their way on the bases on Wednesday and oh boy did they run. Rather, Witt was the one doing the running. But you get the idea.

After hitting a single in the first, he swiped second base with two down and Salvador Perez at the dish. He was stranded, but it kind of set the stage for what was to come. In the seventh, he led off with a single and promptly swiped second. After Vinnie Pasquantino walked, Witt was off and running again, this time ripping off third. Poor Vincenzo was rooted to first. He could’ve snuck in a steal! (Probably not. But wouldn’t it be fun if he somehow swiped 10 or so bases as the trail runner behind Witt? It could happen!)

It was a helluva series for Witt. He finished 6-13 with four steals.

The Royals are now a perfect eight for eight in steals this year. Witt has five of them. That over/under 27.5 on steals was always easy money.

That Brad Keller curveball? Weapon.

Keller threw a fastball 37 percent of the time and the curve was offered a quarter of all pitches. He generated 14 swings and got five whiffs. Overall, his curve brought a 46 percent CSW% (called strike plus swings), which is an exceptional number for any pitch, let alone a new one.

He’s keeping the curve down in the zone and mostly inside to right-handed batters. To lefties, he’ll spread the width of the zone.

Maybe the best thing about Keller’s start was he threw 105 pitches and didn’t really show signs of fatigue until his final inning. I thought it was a gutsy call for Matt Quatraro to send him back out and was glad to see him pulled after the two-out walk to Brad Miller. He was looking good and still slinging it, though. The gamble paid off. (It also helped that they had a nice cushion.)

We’ve seen strong starts to seasons before from Keller. I would be a lot more skeptical if this was the old Keller, throwing with the old coaching staff behind him. But this Keller throws that curve. And he has a new team of support behind him. I have confidence that they will help him refine the pitch (and the sinker and the slider and the fastball) and will keep him on track. There will be speed bumps along the way. There always are. It will be interesting to see how the Royals coaches and Keller deal with any difficulty that comes his way.

Until then…how about that curve?