The Royals continue to roll

Massey Mashes. Salvy Splashes. Wacha Wins. The Royals stay hot in their series opener against the Tigers, winning their fourth in a row.

On Monday night at The K, the Royals defeated the Detroit Tigers by a score of 8-3. It was their fourth win in a row, all coming during this homestand. Their record now stands at 30-19.

What a difference a season makes. Last year, it took the Royals until August 1 to have a winning streak of four games. They’ve now had winning streaks of four or more a total of three times in 2024. Then there’s the fact the Royals didn’t win their 30th game in 2023 until July 28th, in their 105th game of the season. You probably remember win number 30 last year. It was the game this happened:

That’s Bobby Witt Jr. turning on an impossible 102 MPH fastball to hit a walkoff, 10th inning grand slam against the Minnesota Twins. Just prior to that swing, the Royals were a team playing .279 baseball, on pace to lose 117 games. From that moment, they went 27-31, a .466 clip the rest of the way.

Since then, the Royals are 57-50. That’s a .533 winning percentage. That’s quite a rebound.

In this, the 10th anniversary of the 2014 team and their postseason siege, it’s tempting to attempt to draw parallels between the two teams. There are plenty of similarities to be sure. How about the home runs that seemed to show the promise of better days ahead? In 2013 it was Justin Maxwell hitting a walkoff grand slam in the final home game of the season. That swing clinched a winning season for the team with a week of games remaining. It also somehow set the tone for the offseason. Jump forward 10 years and it’s Witt leading the team out of the doldrums.

Two swings. Two grand slams. Two indelible moments in franchise history? It sure feels like it. Baseball!

Monday’s game was close. Until it wasn’t.

The Royals jumped to an early lead, let the Tigers stick around to perhaps let them feel as though they had a chance at taking this game, and then brutalized them for six runs in the sixth inning. Game over.

The lightning-strike Royals offense was at it again. Creeping ahead in the early innings, all the while lying in wait…Preparing for the right moment to pounce. It’s like guerrilla warfare with baseball bats.

The sixth inning was the moment. It was all kinds of fun.

Perez led off with a home run crushed, yes crushed, into the fountains in left-center. It was the culmination of a 10-pitch at bat. The man just continues to amaze and delight.

Perez takes three pitches in and down. Easy takes these days for Salvy. He spits on a fastball that’s out of the zone but is rung up as a 3-0 courtesy strike. Yeah, it’s a horseshit call, but given the outcome, who cares? So from that point, Perez misses on another four-seamer, this one in the zone and then goes to work, fouling off four consecutive pitches, an array of cutters and four-seamers. The 10th pitch was low, but not low enough.

I love this angle of his swing. And I love his reaction. How he looks down at his bat. It’s like he’s a gunslinger who just won a duel and spins his six-shooter back into his holster. Salvy is a bad, bad man.

With two hits on Monday, Perez is now batting .341/.404/.565 this season with a wRC+ of 169. The man is a marvel.

The Perez blast was followed by a Michael Massey double, a Freddy Fermin single, an MJ Melendez single (!!!), a Hunter Renfroe double (!!!!!) a Kyle Isbel walk and a Maikel Garcia single.

Vinnie Pasquantino capped the inning with a sacrifice fly to the corner in left. When the dust settled the Royals scored six runs on six hits and effectively salted the game away.

The Royals quick-strike offense strikes again.

Massey was Reese Olson’s one-man wrecking crew. Literally.

Leading off the second inning, Massey had a strong at-bat after falling behind 0-2. He spoiled a slider down and in and fouled off a four-seamer away. It was early, but it felt like Olson was throwing everything he had at the Royals second baseman. On the eighth pitch, it was a fastball down and in. Right in a left-handed hitter’s nitro zone.

Massey crushed it, sending it 419 feet to stake the Royals to an early lead.

Massey found himself up again in the third. The Royals were threatening after a two-out Pasquantino walk followed by a first-pitch single from Perez. This time, Massey connected on the first pitch from Olson, an elevated four-seam fastball. He drilled the pitch right back up the middle. It would’ve gone through except it nailed Olson right on the back pocket. At 102 MPH off the bat, it had to leave a mark. And it ended Olson’s night.

That’s a key moment in the game. Olson is having a fine season and while the Detroit bullpen is pitching well, getting to them early increases the chances one pitcher will falter. That’s how the sixth inning came to pass.

Starter Michael Wacha played the role of crafty veteran to perfection on Monday. He cruised through the first two innings but started to put men on base in the third. It felt a little dangerous at times, but it was never in danger of spinning out of control. It wasn’t so much that danger was lurking on the bases but Wacha was locating just a little too close to the middle of the zone for my tastes. These were the pitches the Tigers put in play against him on Monday.

Leaving changeups up in the zone is just asking for trouble. The center-cut four-seamer is the pitch that Kerry Carpenter crushed off a signboard in the left field fountains. While locating pitches in the center of the zone is no way to make a living, Wacha’s mix of pitches kept him out of danger. He was ruthlessly efficient, rarely going deep into counts and letting the Tiger hitters put the ball in play. His repitoire kept them off balance and unable to make solid contact consistently. Rookie Colt Keith seemed to have his number, blistering two singles and Carpenter bashed that home run off a fat four-seamer, but those were the only pitches that were truly squared up against Wacha all night. (Keith also clubbed a run-scoring double down the first base line that hit the bag. When you’re hot, you’re hot.)

Wacha faced off against these Tigers back on April 28. In that start, he leaned on his changeup 41 percent of the time while he fired his four-seamer 27 percent of all pitches he threw. This was his breakdown.

On Monday, Wacha spun his slider early in the game. It’s a pitch he tinkered with in the spring and early in the season before shelving it for a couple of starts. The pitch is back now, though and against Detroit, Wacha decided they needed to see it early, perhaps to get them thinking about it.

About midway through his start, Wacha abandoned the slider for more changeups and sinkers. This is how his pitch mix finished after seven innings.

It’s not a radically different plan of attack given that the changeup and four-seamer were his two most frequently used pitches in both starts. The slider ate into the percentages a bit and he also threw more sinkers at the expense of the curve and cutter. It’s interesting that Wacha altered the amount of his secondary offerings. More than that, I do think it’s really about when in the game he was using his particular pitches. Lean on that slider early to plant the seed of a new (or newish) pitch and then back off and go to the usual suspects. Add in a sinker with increased frequency and it was certainly a winning recipe on Monday. It let him get away with leaving pitches in the zone. Pitching to contact plus weak contact can be a winning combination.

Watching veteran pitchers ply their craft can be one helluva satisfying experience.

Some action on the transaction front on Monday as the Royals designated last December’s Rule 5 selection, Matt Sauer, for assignment. As noted in yesterday’s newsletter, it’s a move that had to happen. In 16.1 innings, he had a 4.96 SO/9 and 6.06 BB/9. He surrendered three home runs, two of which came in garbage time in games against the A’s over the weekend. His ERA finished at 7.71.

The corresponding move was the addition of left-handed reliever Sam Long to the 40-man and big league rosters. Long, a non-roster invitee to spring training, almost made the club on the back of a strong exhibition season. He went to Omaha instead and continued to deal. He threw 20.2 innings for the Storm Chasers, striking out 23 with five walks. His ERA was 1.31. That will play.

This feels like the first move of a few will be happening over the next couple of weeks as the Royals find themselves in early contention for a playoff spot. A guy like Sauer can be stashed on a roster of a team that is below .500 with no hope of catching sustained fire. He cannot take up a bullpen spot on a team that has eyes on October. Even in May.

With Sauer designated for assignment, there are two things that can happen in his immediate future. One, the Royals can work out a trade sending him to another team. That team will need to put him on their active roster as the Rule 5 rules still apply here. Failing working out a trade, the Royals would then pass him through waivers. The same rules apply for an acquiring team. Failing that, the Royals would have to offer Sauer back to his original team, the Yankees for $50,000. Whew. Being a Rule 5 pick can be exhausting.

I liked Sauer when the Royals made the selection last December, but it’s clear he’s not ready for the majors. And I don’t think anyone saw the Royals as a team that would be 10 games over .500 entering play on May 20. Sometimes moves don’t work out. Better for the Royals to acknowledge this now and move on.

There’s another move to discuss. Jake Brentz, who struggled with command in spring training as he attempted to come back from Tommy John surgery, was activated from his rehab assignment and was optioned to Double-A Northwest Arkansas. If you remember his Cactus League campaign was short-circuited by a hamstring injury that landed him on the DL.

His rehab went as well as his spring. Which is to say not well at all. In 8.2 innings spread between the Complex League in Arizona, Double and Triple-A, he walked 20 batters.

Pardon me as I take a moment to check my numbers. Ahhh, yep. Brentz walked 20 batters in 8.2 innings of work. For you true math sickos, that works out to a 22 BB/9 walk rate. On the positive side, he did strike out 11.

This is, as you are aware, grim. I’m wondering if Brentz will be able to come back from his injury. It has to be brutal. Imagine being a writer and suddenly forgetting how to spell. That has to be how Brentz is feeling at the moment in that he knows his job is to throw the ball over the plate and he just cannot make that happen. Brentz is on the 40-man roster but as the Royals edge closer to making a (hopeful) move on their major league roster, his position has to be most precarious at this point.

Central Issues

White Sox 3, Blue Jays 9

Toronto’s José Berríos wasn’t as sharp as he’s been in most of his other outing this season, but against the Hapless White Sox, “not as sharp” still veers into ace territory. The Sox nicked him for three runs over six-plus innings but the Jays laid was to Erick Fedde and the Chicago bullpen. Bo Bichette went 4-4 with three doubles and Danny Jansen went 3-5 with a home run and five driven in.

Mets 1, Guardians 3

The Guardians parlayed three consecutive two-out singles, plus a Mets error, in the bottom of the first into two runs and never looked back. Starter Ben Lively stuck out seven over 5.2 innings and the Cleveland bullpen retired 10 in a row to close out the victory.

Twins 3, Nationals 12

The Twins were angling to hang a crooked number on the board in the second but Byron Buxton ran through a stop sign at third base like he was drag racing down Independence Avenue. Minnesota settled for a single run and the Nationals capitalized in the bottom half of their inning on a two-run home run off the bat of Luis García Jr. Then, they steamrolled, plating one in the fourth, four in the fifth and three in the sixth before adding two more in the eighth. The Twins have lost seven in a row.

I’m getting way ahead of myself, but it feels like time to drop this playoff odds chart from FanGraphs.

It’s still way too early to be thinking of October. (Or is it?) But the Royals have a better than 50-50 chance in this sim to make it there. For a team usually irrelevant by the end of April, this is quite something.