Taking stock of the AL Central

The Royals are the division's most improved team. How do they fit in with their four main rivals?

You can sense it…It’s in the air…We are about 24 hours away from the first pitch of the 2024 season. In preparation for Cole Ragans firing a first-pitch fastball past Edouard Julien to get the season started, it’s time to take stock of the competition the Royals will be facing this year in the AL Central.

I’ll have predictions for standings and win totals tomorrow (and will invite you to provide yours, so be prepared); this counts as a good crib sheet on the strengths and weaknesses of the clubs the Royals will be competing against the most in 2024. Teams are broken out by position and projected fWAR is tabulated to compare and contrast. These aren’t perfect—no projections are—however, they are a snapshot of a moment in time just ahead of Opening Day.

The AL Central remains Major League Baseball’s most depressed (or depressing) division. It’s just about impossible to see a path to the playoffs for any team outside the division winner.

A note about methodology: I’m using the depth charts from Roster Resource and FanGraphs. These are always meticulously maintained and I fully trust Jason Martinez to reflect the most up-to-date information available. The projected fWAR for position players comes from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system which is also available at FanGraphs. For the pitchers, I am using Steamer for reasons I’ll explain when we get to that section.

As such, I am only using Opening Day rosters (or projected Opening Day rosters in some cases). Further, I am breaking down the offensive sections into catchers, infield, outfield/designated hitter and bench. That way, each team has the same number of players represented in each category and I’m not over here spending hours trying to decide where Alex Kirilloff is going to get most of his playing time. He’s on the Opening Day roster, so his contribution will be represented. That also means players who are on the IL to start the season are not factored in here.

We’ll start behind the dish.

Catcher

This position includes two players per team noted by Roster Resource as the primary backstop along with the backup.

The Guardians have the best-projected catcher in the Central in Bo Naylor. He was worth 2.4 fWAR last year and ZiPS thinks the 24-year-old has room for improvement. The Guardians utilized seven catchers last year. Only Naylor caught more than 500 innings. (He finished with 505.) Minnesota probably has the best one-two combo in the division with Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez splitting duties behind the plate. Baseball Prospectus has Vázquez getting a slight majority of the playing time for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs has Jeffers in their starting lineup at the moment. Both hit from the right side. Vázques is the better defensive backstop.

You are well acquainted with the Royals’ catching tandem of Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin.

The White Sox…Jeez. First category and they’re already trying to keep relevant. They’re hurt by my methodology here in that Max Stassi, who was projected to make the club and post a 1.4 fWAR, will open the season on the IL with left hip inflammation. Korey Lee will take his place. Still, that alone doesn’t cover up the fact that ZiPS absolutely despises Martín Maldonado. That projected -0.7 fWAR is the lowest by far of all players in this exercise.

Infield

Cleveland not only has the best position player in the Central according to ZiPS—that would be José Ramírez at 5.2 fWAR—they also have the second-best. Andrés Giménez at second base is projected for a 4.7 fWAR meaning that half of the Cleveland infield is better than three other teams in the division. For fun, they should try playing with just two infielders. To make things fair.

Going backwards around the horn, Minnesota’s trio of Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Edouard Julien all project as well above-average regulars. It’s Carlos Santana at first who is projected at a 0.8 fWAR that would be holding this group behind Cleveland’s.

Bobby Witt Jr grades as the third-best infielder according to ZiPS which is blasphemy and I demand Szymborski replace some faulty tubes in his computer so he can get things right. We know that Michael Massey will start the year on the IL and FanGraphs has his replacement in the starting lineup as Adam Frazier. That shift actually nudges the Royals’ projected fWAR up by 0.1. (Frazier is projected for a 1.4 fWAR while Massey checks in at a projected 1.3 fWAR.)

Detroit is home to the best first baseman in the division in Spencer Torkelson, but the rest of the infield is rather uninspiring. Javier Báez is projected for a 1.2 fWAR, but I have some serious doubts. He finished with just a 0.8 fWAR last year with a 61 wRC+. In the Grapefruit League, he whiffed 28 percent of the time and hit .128/.140/.170. I know, I know…it’s spring training. Still, that’s awful. It’s a wRC+ of -26. In spring training! He might be washed.

The White Sox…it’s going to be a long summer on the South Side. At least when we watch those games, we’ll see some familiar faces. Hello, Nicky Lopez and his projected 1.1 fWAR!

Outfield/Designated Hitter

Hold on…The White Sox have the best quartet of starting outfielders and a designated hitter? Praise be Luis Robert Jr. because without that guy…woof.

The Royals are the clear trailers here. ZiPS is not impressed with MJ Melendez who is projected at a 0.2 fWAR. The bat is just fine. It’s the glove that leaves a lot to be desired. We know. Nor does it especially believe in Nelson Velázquez at 0.7 fWAR. Those two guys mean there’s a lot of production to cover and while Kyle Isbel has the glove to make things happen, the bat remains a question. Maybe we can create an AI player that features Melendez’s bat and Isbel’s glove. That guy would be an MVP candidate. I’m not kidding.

The best all-around outfield in the division is probably in Minnesota. Of course, the big question here is how long will Byron Buxton be in center before he breaks again? Last year, the Twins had the luxury of defensive stalwart Michael A. Taylor as the backup who became the primary. This year, I’m not sure that kind of option exists on this roster. In other words, it’s a bit premature to hand the Twins any kind of title.

Bench

For the purpose of this exercise, the bench consists of just three players. So for the Guardians, Royals and Twins to top 3.0 fWAR with those three players is notable.

Cleveland’s bench is more defensive-minded with Gabriel Arias and Estevan Florial. And ZiPS is incredibly high (1.0 fWAR) on utility man David Fry. ZiPS likewise adores Dairon Blanco in Kansas City along with Nick Loftin (1.7 fWAR and 1.4 fWAR, respectively). The Minnesota bench is anchored by a somewhat well-rounded trio of veterans. Kyle Farmer will bring the glove. Manuel Margot has the bat. And Willi Castro has the wheels.

The Chicago bench has a guy back on a major league contract they released last week in Kevin Pillar. No, I don’t understand what kind of five-dimensional chess Chris Getz is playing. I only know I enjoy watching it. Whatever it is he’s doing.

Total Offense

Before we get to the pitching, let’s take a moment and total up the projections to this point to get a snapshot of the offense for each team as seen through the lens of ZiPS.

The Guardians have the top two position players in the division, so their margin for error is smaller when it comes to injuries and general performance from Ramírez and Giménez. The Twins lineup is better balanced.

The Royals and Tigers have both made improvements. There offenses alone aren’t enough to power them to contention, they’ll need some help from the Guardians and Twins, but the gap has been closed.

Now, on to the pitching.

Starting Pitching

Additional programming note: For the pitchers, I’m sliding over to Steamer for projections. Nothing against ZiPS here but I like the innings projections from Steamer which obviously plays into the total that folds into fWAR projections. Steamer also seems to have a better handle on reliever workload. Plus, as I was rooting around in ZiPS it has Triston McKenzie as the 11th-best pitcher in the AL and Brady Singer as better than Cole Ragans. Reader, those are projections I simply cannot abide.

It’s strange to see the Guardians as the fourth-best rotation in the division, but Steamer sees quite a fall-off from Shane Bieber (2.9 projected fWAR) and the rest of the rotation. Triston McKenzie (1.5 projected fWAR) missed almost all of last year with first a shoulder strain and then an UCL strain. He’s thrown only 8.2 innings this spring so he’s barely ready. Carlos Carrasco (projected 0.6 fWAR) returns to his old mound and gets the rotation spot after Gavin Williams opens the year on the IL with elbow discomfort.

There’s not much to separate the Guardians from the Royals, but Kansas City’s starting five skews older with the additions of Seth Lugo (2.0 projected fWAR) and Michael Wacha (1.5 projected fWAR). Steamer has Cole Ragans (2.6 projected fWAR) as the 15th-best pitcher in the AL. Replacing Jordan Lyles in the rotation with Alec Marsh provides a positive projected fWAR bump, but it’s only marginal. Steamer projects 0.3 fWAR for Lyles and 0.5 fWAR for Marsh.

The Royals’ rotation is one of two in the division that features a front three projected at 2 fWAR or better. The other rotation with the first three starters who figure to top 2 fWAR according to Steamer is in Minnesota. The Twins have the Central’s killer rotation with Pablo López (4.1 projected fWAR), Joe Ryan (2.7 projected fWAR) and Bailey Ober (2.0 projected fWAR).

Trailing López in projected fWAR in the division is Detroit’s Tarik Skubal at 4.0 fWAR. Behind Skubal is a solid, if unspectacular, starting rotation. The Tigers are a team that seems built for the long haul of the 162-game season. Steady may not win the race, but it can certainly keep them in the conversation. Their starting five is sneaky-good.

Chicago’s rotation consists of a pitcher who will be making his first major league start after 72 relief appearances on Opening Day (Garrett Crochet), an oft-injured starter in the season’s second game who has thrown a total of 46 big league innings since 2019 (Mike Soroka), a starter who owns a career 5.41 ERA in the majors but pitched in Korea last year (Erick Fedde) and a guy with a career strikeout rate of 16 percent (Chris Flexen). It’s going to be a long summer on the South Side. Wait…didn’t I already write that?

Relief Pitching

Like their rotation, the Detroit Tigers have assembled a solid relief corps. Alex Lange who saved 26 games last year but still posted a negative fWAR (-0.1) is back in the closer role and if he can improve his command after he walked 6.2 batters per nine last year, could take the leap to the next level of Save Man. Joey Wentz showed improved command this spring and gives the Tigers three lefties in the bullpen.

The Tigers may have the best bullpen in the Central to open the year, but that sobriquet deserves an asterisk as the Twins will open the year without closer Jhoan Duran, who is dealing with an oblique injury. He’s joined on the sidelines by Caleb Thielbar—their top left-handed option in relief—and Justin Topa. Minnesota will be testing their bullpen depth from Opening Day.

Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase returns to the closer’s role for the Guardians and Scott Barlow will assume setup duties. Beyond that is chaos as lefty Sam Hentges and right-handers James Karinchak and Trevor Stephan will all open the year on the IL. For Stephan, he’s out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

The Royals may lack a front-line reliever like Cleveland and Minnesota, but they have overhauled the bullpen to where it’s no longer the liability it was. They will miss Carlos Hernández to open the year.

The White Sox will not announce a set closer. This makes sense if only because opportunities figure to be few and far between.

While the Central may be baseball’s weakest overall division, it could be one of the more competitive. The Twins are the clear front-runner, but they coasted through the winter and will be tested early due to the injuries in the bullpen. Cleveland has the strongest lineup, but their pitching, traditionally a strength, looks to be on shaky ground. On the flip side, the Tigers have the pitching to compete, but the lineup is suspect. The Royals, as noted in the intro, are probably the division’s most improved team, but likely lack the overall quality to mount a serious challenge. The White Sox are simply taking up valuable oxygen.

What all this means is I can see a scenario where this division could turn into a three-team race. Maybe something wild happens where four teams are mixing it up. While there won’t be any Wild Cards awarded to clubs in the Central, there should be entertainment aplenty as there’s not much to separate the best teams. The margin for error is quite thin. When that’s the case, there’s usually some excitement.

Thanks for reading today. Don’t forget: Tomorrow is forecast time. I’ll have my record for the Royals, along with final AL Central standings and a few other foolish predictions. You will be invited to provide the same. Be prepared. Until tomorrow.