Splash Hits: Setting the pace in the AL Central
Detroit makes early moves, 2022 odds, Sinclair Broadcasting has some cash flow problems and a belated farewell to a former dominant closer.
Dayton Moore loves to come out of the postseason blocks making moves. He doesn’t wait for the market to settle or even to begin to take shape. He’s acutely aware, now as the President of a small market club, the prices only go up as the scarcity increases…Meaning the best time to make a move is now. Of course, that can backfire at times. Fans of a certain age will remember the Royals dealing for Mike Jacobs in October of 2009, a move that was surprising at the time for how quickly it unfolded after the World Series. It didn’t work out.
With a labor war looming and what figures to be a dearth of moves both large and small ahead of the expiration of the CBA, the Royals still managed to get the jump on the league and settle a position question early. This time it happened while the season was still underway. With Michael A. Taylor under contract for the next two seasons, the Royals don’t necessarily have their Opening Day lineup completely set, but they’re close enough that their options for the starting nine are all in-house.
Meanwhile, it’s been Central Division rival Detroit opting to make the early offseason noise.
Perhaps taking a page of the Moore playbook, Tigers General Manager Al Avila traded for catcher Tucker Barnhart on the first day of the offseason. Barnhart isn’t any great shakes offensively, but grades out as an above-average pitch framer and owns a career 32 percent caught-stealing rate. Reports have the two sides already discussing a contract extension.
With the catching position mostly settled in Motown, they moved on to shore up their rotation, signing free agent starter Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77 million deal. It reportedly includes an opt-out after the second year along with a no-trade clause, along with $3 million in potential bonus money. Industry estimates pegged Rodriguez at earning a four-year deal around $68 million, so he’s done quite well for himself. Because Rodriguez was tagged with a qualifying offer from Boston, Detroit will lose their third-highest draft pick in 2022.
Rodriguez will turn 29 just after the start of the 2022 season is coming off a campaign where he finished with a career-best strikeout rate (10.6 SO/9) and walk rate (2.68 BB/9). He didn’t have an attractive ERA (4.74 covering 157.1 IP), but those peripherals do carry a particular shine. His 3.43 xFIP and 3.64 SIERA point to a pitcher who delivered the goods, despite the ERA.
I suspect Rodriguez will do well slotting into the middle of Detroit’s rotation. The plurality of his batted balls go up the middle and lord knows there’s plenty of space in center field at Comerica. Among the 55 starters who threw at least 150 innings in 2021, his 1.26 GB/FB ratio was the 25th-most tilted to the ground ball side. Detroit’s infield defense was atrocious last summer, but Avila mentioned early in the offseason that in addition to catcher and starting pitching, shortstop would be an area of emphasis. And look who’s been connected with Carlos Correa in the early going. Of course, there is a bumper crop of free agent shortstops available. Correa is the best of class (along with Corey Seager) so even if the Tigers miss out on a top target, there are still plenty of solid options further down the list.
I have to admit I’m a bit surprised at the Tigers coming out of the gate making moves, with the expiration of the CBA looming in a couple of weeks and what looks like to be a long winter ahead. I figured there would be a dearth of big signings and trades, but Detroit doesn’t seem to care about an extended labor war. They’re getting the jump of shaping their club for 2022. Whenever the season starts.
If this was a newsletter about a New York club, this would be the part where I would demand the local team make a move to keep pace with their divisional rival. If the Tigers finished ahead of the Royals in 2021 by three games and have now solidified their catching situation and added a solid mid-tier starting pitcher, they’re only pulling further ahead, right? MAKE SOME MOVES!
It’s fun, but if we’ve learned anything from Moore (and presumably, now JJ Picollo) this last decade and a half, it’s that they operate in their own universe. They make the moves that suit their club in their current situation. Never have they glanced at the Tigers (or Twins, or White Sox or New Guardians) and decided they have to make a reactionary move. They have a plan and they stick to it.
However, the Royals are in the market for a veteran starting pitcher. While Rodriguez was perhaps the best of the mid-tier starters, there are plenty of other options still available. The only difference is we now have a contractual starting point.
Labor strife notwithstanding, the Tigers have set the opening pace in the offseason.
Farewell to a top closer
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the recent retirement of former Royals reliever, Joakim Soria.
Soria arrived in Kansas City in the winter of 2006 as a Rule 5 selection from the San Diego Padres organization. All Soria did that first season for the Royals was post a 2.48 ERA in 69 innings with a 9.8 SO/9 and 2.5 BB/9 while claiming 17 saves.
He pitched five seasons in Kansas City before he tore his UCL and required Tommy John surgery for the second time. In those five seasons, Soria had a 2.40 ERA with 9.7 SO/9 and 2.5 BB/9. His 160 saves established him as one of the preeminent closers in the game. He was a two-time All-Star (2008 and 2010) and picked up votes for Cy Young and MVP after a typically stellar 2010 campaign.
(A fun what-if scenario…The Royals had Soria under contract for the 2012 season when he had his Tommy John surgery, along with two extremely affordable option years. Had Soria stayed healthy, what would have that 2014 bullpen looked like?)
The Royals bought out the options on his contract ahead of the 2013 season and after completing rehab, Soria turned out for the Rangers, Tigers and Pirates in the next three seasons.
He reunited with the Royals after they won their championship in 2015, signing a three-year, $25 million contract. (A harbinger of the current Royals trend of reuniting with formerly successful relief pitchers?) The second turn in Royal blue wasn’t as successful as Soria pitched to a 3.89 ERA with a 9.7 SO/9 and 3.4 BB/9. The Royals traded him in a three-team deal that was more or less a salary dump after the 2017 season. Soria ended up on the South Side of Chicago with the White Sox.
Soria has continued his nomadic relieving ways the last several years, pitching for the Brewers, A’s, Diamondback and Blue Jays.
He departs the game with 229 saves over 14 years. His 427 games pitched for the Royals ranks fifth in franchise history. His 162 saves in Kansas City is the third-highest total, three ahead of Greg Holland.
That five-year stretch to begin his career was some of the most exhilarating relief action we’ve seen in Kansas City. He was flat dominant. And nasty as hell. It’s too bad he didn’t get to pitch on those championship teams, but that kind of how the game works. Still, Soria will one day take his place in the Royals Hall of Fame as one of the all-time great relief pitchers in franchise history.
More trouble for Sinclair
It appears that Sinclair Broadcasting Corp. has a bit of a cash flow problem. The owner of the RSNs broadcasting 14 teams in Major League Baseball—including the Royals—is facing debt pressure from their purchase of the networks from Fox Sports and failed to restructure over $8 billion in debt this summer. To compound issues there’s, you know, an issue with cord-cutting and services such as YouTube, Hulu and others not carrying Bally’s Sports on their streaming platforms.
To put it succinctly, it’s a disaster.
Without a successful shift in Sinclair’s business strategy for its Diamond unit, S&P Global Ratings forecasts a potential default and bankruptcy in the second half of 2022.
…
If Sinclair fails to deploy a game-changing streaming service, or if one is rolled out and it’s a disaster, S&P Ratings predicts “a worst case scenario” for the company’s RSN business.
It would appear that Sinclair Broadcasting Corp. is way out over its skis in acquiring these RSNs. Not only does it impact MLB, but they have rights to NBA, MLS and NHL teams as well. While Sinclair is deep in debt and teetering toward bankruptcy, that doesn’t mean they would cease broadcasting. But it is a situation worth monitoring going forward. According to the article linked above, the NBA is currently trying to help Sinclair “fix things.” MLB’s position is a bit more laissez-faire, given that they’re ticked that Sinclair is attempting to establish their own streaming platform with rights they may not possess.
The Royals signed their current broadcast agreement in August of 2020.
I don’t like those odds
It always tickles me when I get the email direct from Las Vegas before the champagne celebration is over with odds for next season’s World Series champion. I mean, there’s a ton of work to be done in the offseason. If your gambling jones is so strong you just have to get that wager in the night the current season is settled, have at it.
It’s the usual suspects at the top of the odds list with the Dodgers (as usual) the favorites followed by the AL pennant winners Astros, the Yankees and then the newly-crowned champion Braves.
The White Sox are the fifth favorite and the AL Central is buried at the bottom of the odds sheet with the new Guardians, Tigers, Twins and Royals in that order. In fact, the Royals are currently priced at 100/1 which are the same odds as the…Pirates? I get that the Royals are still rebuilding and I understand that there probably won’t be any Earth-shattering moves this winter to reshape a roster that won 74 games. Still, to lump them in with the Pirates seems especially cruel.
The only teams with longer odds than the Royals are the Rangers (125/1) and the Diamondbacks and Orioles (150/1).
I seem to remember Soria blowing several saves post-all star break during 2016 (2017?) which was a large reason the Royals missed post season.