Splash Hits: Rankings and projections

Standings and farm systems. Farm systems and standings.

The surest sign of spring isn’t some dumb groundhog posturing. Nope, the surest sign of spring is the arrival of the baseball projections and the top prospect lists.

Pitchers and catchers are due in camp on February 12 so by this time next week, we’ll have video of Salvador Perez catching bullpen sessions and Cole Ragans and the rest of the rotation getting their arms ready. It’s time.

This edition will be a little light on hard-hitting content but it’s February which means it’s time to get serious about getting into the best writing shape of my life. So a post is going out. Enjoy!

I’ve already discussed PECOTA in this space and how that brand of computer doesn’t appreciate Bobby Witt Jr. If that’s not your cup of projection tea, FanGraphs dropped their projected standings and playoff odds this week. They have the Royals in third place in the AL Central.

I’ll give you a moment to collect yourselves.

Turns out the FanGraphs projection of the AL Central is pretty much in line with what I illustrated on Thursday from Baseball Prospectus. It’s a tight race for the top. What’s interesting at FanGraphs is they have the Guardians a distant fourth. They’re not particularly relevant in this projected race. In this version, the Royals have 82 wins, a 43 percent chance at the postseason and win the division about a quarter of the simulations they’ve run. Conversely, PECOTA has the Royals at a 19 percent chance to win the division and just a 32 percent chance at October.

Does that feel right to you? I think these projections are in line with how I’m feeling heading into spring training. The addition of Jonathan India to hit leadoff gives the Royals a strong top half of the lineup. However, nothing was done to improve the outfield and despite the gains the team made in the rotation last year, I’m dubious they will enjoy that kind of health and success in 2025. Although they enter the season with an improved bullpen.

I can talk myself into landing on either side of 81 wins.

As for the prospects, Keith Law at the Athletic has the Royals organization in the sixth tier out of seven. Maybe it helps that they’re at the top of tier six? They’re 22nd overall in his rankings. Meanwhile, Baseball America says the Royals have the 27th-best farm system in the game. At ESPN, Kiley McDaniel slots the Royals in at 22nd.

From McDaniel:

The Royals' past two first-round picks -- catcher Blake Mitchell and first baseman Jac Caglianone -- are in the top half of the top 100, and left-hander David Shields is already arrow-up due to a velocity spike before even throwing in a regular-season big league game. Beyond that, it's mostly role players and high-variance types in this system.

This seems to be the consensus around the Royals: They have a couple of top-tier talents backed by guys with some upside. Although “upside” is replaced with “high-variance,” meaning boom or bust potential. The system is on the ascendancy, which, given the state of it the last couple of seasons is a very good thing.

For those of you sweating the market looking for outfield help (guilty!), there was some movement among minor free agents this week. Harrison Bader went to the Minnesota Twins for $6.25 million. Randal Grichuk re-upped with the Arizona Diamondback for an overall guarantee of $5 million. And the ever-intense Tommy Pham will be bringing his red-assery to Pittsburgh as he signed with the Pirates for $4 million. Oh, if you’re looking for an upgrade at the hot corner, the Angels picked up Yoán Moncada for $5 million.

(My settings do not recognize the word “red-assery” and I’m being asked if I would like to add it to my dictionary. I would if the Royals had brought back Pham. Now I feel like this is a missed opportunity.)

Could any of these guys improve the Royals’ outfield situation? Maybe. Would I take a chance on any of these guys at the contracts they ultimately signed? Ehhhhhh. Grichuk is maybe the most intriguing to me, but Arizona finally figured out the guy rakes against southpaws and used him in that capacity. He’s a good fit in a lineup that skews to the left.

I will point out that MJ Melendez was brutal in limited action against left-handed pitching last year, hitting .164/.219/.395, which translated to a wRC+ of 0. I guess it depends on how the Royals view the work he put in revamping his stance this winter and how they project his results going forward.

That’s what spring training is for!