Lost in the flood

Under a deluge of runs, Seth Lugo struggles, Bobby Witt Jr. hits a milestone and comes close to another and the bullpen can't hold the lead against the surging Tigers.

If you’ve forgotten what October baseball feels like (it’s been nine years), the Royals and Tigers staged a late-September ballgame on Monday that would’ve been fitting for an ALCS contest.

That the two teams are batting for a spot in the postseason meant the stakes were elevated. The Royals entered the game sitting comfortably, masters of their own October destiny. Meanwhile, the Tigers arrived as the plucky upstarts, making a late run that nobody outside of their clubhouse thought was possible. In this case, the schedule is their enemy. They are running out of time. Every game counts. It served as a preview of what lies ahead.

The Royals are trying to edge closer to the tournament. The Tigers are trying to kick down the door. Yeah, meaningful September baseball is tense, exhilarating, stressful and debilitating. It’s also damn compelling.

The Royals’ 7-6 defeat to the Tigers unfolded like a well-structured book. Each inning a chapter with either a cliffhanger or a devastating plot twist. Sometimes both. After the game, I watched a couple of episodes of The Bear to unwind.

I’m exhausted.

Seth Lugo just didn’t have it working on Monday. At all.

His normal pinpoint command was off from the jump. That was evident from how he was spraying his hard stuff up and out of the zone. There was traffic in the first, but Lugo was able to dance around any potential damage thanks to his cutter. While the pitch was elevated, the Tigers were going after it. Just one out of the six he threw in the first inning was in the zone, but he got two whiffs and recorded all three outs on the pitch.

This was Lugo’s pitch mix in the first inning. I have nothing to add other than it’s just kind of insane he broke off that kind of variety through the first five batters he faced. I love watching Lugo pitch, even when he struggles.

While Lugo escaped the first without damage and set the order down in the second, he put some more runners on base in the third, ultimately leaving the bases loaded. It was probably at this point you were admitting to yourself that Lugo wasn’t long for this game.

The command just wasn’t there. Here’s Lugo’s pitch chart through those first three innings. And this was before he started giving up runs.

The hard stuff was up as noted previously. The slurve missed consistently low. He was able to nick the corners, but not as much as usual. He was living in the meaty portion of the zone. Also, it just seemed like Lugo had difficulty putting hitters away. He would jump ahead in the count 0-1 or 0-2 and then let the batter right back in, delivering a pitch or two (or three) out of the zone. Was he trying to be too fine? I don’t think that was the case. It was just the Detroit hitters were able to lay off those pitches that were well out of the zone. A dazzling array isn’t as effective if he’s not hitting his spots.

Lugo was out of the game after throwing 96 pitches in just 4.2 innings. He allowed four runs on eight hits. Ten baserunners total. It was a slog. One of those nights.

The Royals started cooking in the bottom of the third. Adam Frazier, making his fourth consecutive start, this time at third base, drew a five-pitch walk to open the frame. Yuli Gurriel then hit a sharp single off the glove of Tigers shortstop Trey Sweeney that deflected into left field.

With two runners on and nobody out and the ninth-place hitter Kyle Isbel up…yeah…he squared around to bunt. You know how sometimes we’ll say that the process was right but the results just weren’t there? This was the inverse. I despise the process. I just hate the idea of giving up an out against a pitcher who was going to be on a short leash and was probably tiring. (This was Reese Olson’s first start after missing two months with injury) Yet the result? Yeah, I’m not going to argue that.

Isbel squared, got a perfect pitch, and laid down a beautiful bunt down the third base line. Detroit third baseman Zack McKinstry was playing even with the bag, maybe a bit in, but was slow to pick up the ball. Again, the bunt was really perfectly placed. With Isbel’s speed, he was always going to be safe and McKinstry rightly put the ball in his pocket.

That flipped the lineup and brought Tommy Pham to the plate.

Pham saw four pitches. Literally. I mean he just watched four pitches.

I’m sorry, but that plate appearance is wholly unacceptable. The bases are loaded, nobody is out…strikeouts happen for sure, but you have to take the bat off your shoulder. Yes, the first pitch was off the edge and was called a strike. That pitch was a strike all night long. In yesterday’s post, I complained about the inconsistency of the home plate umpire in Sunday’s loss to the Pirates. I can’t complain about the consistency here. Pham should’ve known these pitches were strikes.

Alas…One man’s mistake is another man’s opportunity. It was as if the crowd, in one collective exhale, went from a groan that Pham went down without a fight to a “whoa” when they realized that Bobby Witt Jr. was coming to the plate with the bases loaded.

And you know Witt. He doesn’t like to disappoint.

Mercy, that ball was put into orbit. I’m not sure Olson could have hung that curve any more than that pitch. It was pleading to be crushed. Witt got under it and it took off like a bottle rocket. According to Baseball Savant, the ball had a launch angle of 41 degrees. Would you like a little perspective?

Witt’s home runs in 2024 by launch angle:

9/16 vs Olson — 41 degrees
8/28 vs Bibee — 36 degrees
5/8 vs Payamps — 35 degrees
6/4 vs McKenzie — 34 degrees
4/11 vs Abreu — 33 degrees

Get a load of this guy. Hits a grand slam that scrapes the mesosphere.

That gave the Royals an early 4-0 advantage.

The Tigers drew one back in the fourth, the first run against Lugo, on a one-out McKinstry triple followed by a sacrifice fly.

The Royals answered immediately with an MJ Melendez triple with one out. With Olson having exited the game after throwing 50 pitches, the Tigers brought in left-hander Sean Guenther. While Melendez grabbing three bags was a case of left-on-left crime, with Adam Frazier due up next, Royals manager Matt Quatraro went to his bench for pinch hitter Maikel Garcia.

I love that kind of move. The Royals have really limited Frazier’s exposure to left-handed pitching this year, giving him only 30 plate appearances. With good reason. Small sample size and all, Frazier is hitting just .179/.233/.179 against southpaws.

And what does Garcia do? Why he grounds a single between third and short to get that run back from the Tigers.

Parker Meadows led off the fifth with a bunt single. Seriously, this game felt like a game of HORSE. You hit a triple, we’ll hit a triple. You drop a bunt single, we’ll hit a bunt single. You hit a grand slam, we’ll hit a three run homer. You get the picture.

In Lugo’s final inning, he gave up another single, a pop up and a ground out. None of the balls were close to being hard-hit. That brought up Colt Keith. Keith hit one hard. It barely got out of the yard to cut the Royals’ lead to one. One batter later, after another single on soft contact, Lugo was done.

The ballgame was in the hands of the bullpens.

Edgar Allan Poe couldn’t come up with a more frightening line.

The Royals pushed the lead out to two in the bottom of the fifth. Kyle Isbel led off with a triple. (Three triples in the game between the two teams. A trio of triples!) He came in to score on Witt’s infield single. There’s Witt crushing one 383 feet for four runs in the third and then he turns around and dribbles a ball about 60 feet down the first base line to leg out a run-scoring single.

That single was hit number 200 on the season for Witt. It’s the ninth time in franchise history that milestone has been reached.

Oh! The grand slam a couple innings before? That was Witt’s 86 extra-base hit of the season, which ties him for the club record.

Witt also stole his 29th base of the season in the fifth, inching him ever so close to his second consecutive 30/30 season. While I’m hanging out at Stathead, how about the top Royals seasons by bWAR?

If you’re wondering about FanGraphs, their metric values Witt’s defense. He’s with two weeks left in the season, he’s already the owner of the best individual season in Royals history by fWAR.

I don’t think I’ll ever tire writing about Witt’s historic season.

The Tigers had an answer in their half of the sixth. Sam Long, who had come on in relief to close out the fifth, allowed back-to-back singles to open the inning. After a strikeout, he surrendered a double to pinch-hitter Wenceel Pérez. That plated both runs to tie the game.

Exit Long and enter John Schreiber. He uncorked a wild pitch that Perez blocked at home and had a play on Pérez who tried to advance to third. It was a close play, he was called safe and the replay review was inconclusive so the call stood. I’ll begrudgingly admit that New York got that call right. I may dispute the initial call from the third base umpire who just an inning before had an atrocious call on a bunt attempt from Michael Massey that he ruled a strike. It was not. Not even close. In fact, Vance Wilson was so incensed by the call, he was run out of the game between innings. Umpires…

The Schreiber confrontation with Matt Vierling was one where the sidearmer was running the ball away from the right-handed hitter. It was working and as we established, that’s where the home plate umpire was making calls as well. The sixth pitch of the at bat, a sweeper running away, wasn’t a bad one.

Yet it was probably too elevated. Vierling was able to flick it into right and the Tigers took the lead for the first time.

The Royals had their chances.

Yuli Gurriel led off the seventh with a single and was lifted for Garrett Hampson as a pinch runner. Hampson motored to third on a Pham single with one out. This is the exactly the moment you’re looking for. A runner on third with fewer than two outs with Witt and Perez due up.

Witt got a ball to the outfield but it was to shallow right. However, it was a long run for the right fielder Vierling, who caught the ball in foul territory. I dunno…with Hampson’s speed, I would’ve loved for the Royals to put pressure on the Detroit defense in that situation. Make them make the play. According to Baseball Savant, Vierling has an average arm in right. He also had to cover some distance to make the catch.

Yet the Royals played it safe and held Hampson at third. Perez flew out to center and the threat was over.

Their next opportunity came an inning later when Michael Massey led off the eighth with a single and was followed by a walk to Hunter Renfroe. But Melendez struck out and Garcia grounded into an inning-ending double play.

The Royals went down in order in the ninth. Pham chased ball four to strikeout and end the game with Witt on deck.

While this zaniness was unfolding in Kansas City, the Twins built a 3-0 lead in a crucial game against the Guardians. Yet by the time the Royals gave up their early margin, the Twins were coughing up theirs late. The Guardians chipped away with single tallies in the fifth and seventh before Kyle Manzardo delivered the hammer blow—a two-run home run off Griffin Jax in the eighth.

The Royals are five games back with 11 to play. This pair of games probably lays any hopes for a division title to rest.

And thank goodness for the Twins collapse. It really provides some breathing room in that Wild Card pack for the Royals.

The Royals’ magic number remains at eight.