A winter meeting Rule 5 wonderland

With a late trade, Royals were an active participant in the Rule 5 draft and a blockbuster deal goes down as the Winter Meetings edge closer to completion.

If you were looking for intrigue and drama, Wednesday at the Winter Meetings was for you. Would the Royals remove a player from their 40-man roster so they could participate in the Rule 5 draft? If they did, who would be the casualty?

The Royals, as is their wont, waited until just about the last minute before they announced that yes, yes they would be participating in the Rule 5. They shipped reliever Dylan Coleman to Houston for minor league right-hander Carlos Mateo.

After successes in 2022 where he posted a 2.78 ERA over 68 innings, Coleman was expected to be a key reliever in Matt Quatraro’s bullpen in 2023, but control issues meant that he would spend most of the year exiled in Omaha. On the occasions he did pitch in Kansas City, the results were by turns underwhelming or quite troubling. Coleman finished the year with an 8.84 ERA, walking 19 batters in 18.1 innings. He allowed a .438 OBP to opposing hitters.

My favorite Coleman outing of the year came in August against the Cardinals when the Royals deployed him as an opener, in what was a questionable strategic move. Coleman faced six batters, allowed four to reach and pitched a scoreless frame. He hit the first batter of the game with a pitch and then walked the second. After inducing Nolan Arenado to ground into a double play, Coleman then walked the next two batters. He escaped unscathed when Tyler O’Neill flew out to left to end the inning.   

There were flashes for Coleman of his 2022 form, but there was generally just far too much traffic on the bases when he entered a game. Given how chewed up the bullpen was last year, if a guy who was expected to contribute crashed and burned instead, it goes to figure his time in Kansas City was running out.

Mateo turns 20 years old later this month and has pitched in the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League for the Astros organization. He’s not a name you’ll find on any prospect lists.

As noted, the removal of Coleman was necessary for the Royals to free up a spot on the 40-man roster to participate in the Rule 5 draft. With the second pick in the draft, the Royals selected right-hander Matt Sauer from the Yankees organization.

Sauer was a second-round selection by the Yankees in 2017 and signed for a bonus just a tick under $2.5 million. He tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery after a handful of games in 2019 and with the pandemic, he spent the next year and a half recovering.

Once he got back on the mound, the fastball velocity he flashed as a prep returned topping at 98 MPH at times. His slider is a sweeper type of offering that is a fine compliment to his heater. Sauer also features a change that grades as average.

Sauer has a strong prospect pedigree, ranking as high as number 10 in the Yankee system by Baseball America back in 2019. He’s been a starter his entire career. He threw 68.1 innings for Double-A Somerset last year with a 3.42 ERA, walking 29 while striking out 83. He’s an intriguing acquisition who should find a home in the Royals bullpen next summer with the potential to be a swingman and occasional opener. The stuff should play up even more in the bullpen and if he can find his way to improving his command, he could be a rare Rule 5 find.

The Royals didn’t lose anyone in the major league portion of the Rule 5. That means 2020 first-rounder Asa Lacy remains in the organization.

The Royals did lose a handful of players in the minor league portion of the Rule 5. TJ Sikkema went to the Reds while infielder Clay Dungan went to the Padres in back-to-back picks. Right-hander Wander Arias was selected in the second round by the Nationals.

Sikkema, as you’ll recall, came to the Royals in 2022 as part of the deal that sent Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees. He struggled in the jump to Double-A once he joined the organization and struggled again at that level this year when he was pitching out of the bullpen.

The Royals made three selections themselves, plucking outfielder Joe Gray from Milwaukee, lefty Keylan Killgore from Philadelphia and infielder Ryan Fitzgerald from Boston. Gray and Fitzgerald were both deemed noteworthy selections by Baseball America.

On Fitzgerald:

A cult-hero with Triple-A Worcester, Fitzgerald is a late bloomer that has played all over the field the last few seasons. He hit .261/.345/.484 with 12 home runs for the WooSox. Fitzgerald has just fringe-average raw power but he gets the most of his contact with good launch angles. He consistently hits the ball in the air to his pull side on his best contact. He’s a little aggressive and will get drawn into chases out of the zone but looks like a nice get in the minor league portion for the Royals.

Fitzgerald was a college teammate of Nicky Lopez’s, forming the double-play combo for Creighton in 2015 and 2016. He went undrafted and was signed by the Red Sox as a free agent after spending a year playing independent ball. He’s spent parts of three seasons in Triple-A Worcester where he’s hit a cumulative .238/.322/.442. He will turn 30 in June.

On Gray:

Gray was a highly-regarded high school prospect, and early in his Brewers’ career, he showed power in an impressive stretch at Low-A Carolina. But his power has dissipated against higher-level pitching as he’s made too much weak contact. A change of scenery could be useful. He will turn 24 just before the season begins.

Gray was a toolsy, raw high school outfielder who the Brewers took in the second round in 2018. He scuffled in his first couple of years but rebounded a bit in 2021 to find himself back on the prospect radar. Repeating High-A last year, Gray hit .246/.303/.376 in 423 PAs. A late-season bump to Double-A saw him limp across the finish line to the tune of .054/.103/.081. Let’s see how good the Royals’ minor league hitting program really is.

Two things need to happen to really crank this hot stove up to a boil.

1. A Shohei Ohtani signing
2. A Juan Soto trade

Word is we have to wait until this weekend for the super-secret Ohtani free agent tour to reach its conclusion. I’m still betting on the Dodgers, despite Dave Roberts talking about their meeting to the media.

The Soto saga reached its foregone conclusion when the Padres shipped him to the Yankees in exchange for a bushel of players. La-de-freaking-dah. Thankfully, we’ve had the distraction of Ohtani to save us from the tedium of another trade that only the Yankees can make. What should’ve been fun turned into a typical slog once the Yankees became the only option. It went something like this:

Soto is available.
The Yankees are interested.
The Padres want something of value.
The Yankees are shocked and insulted by this.
The teams are talking.
The teams are far apart.
The teams are getting close.
The teams aren’t talking.
The teams are getting close again.
The deal is done.

It’s seriously the most boring dance I’ve ever seen, a replay of the Stanton situation a few years ago. I fully expect the two sides to reach a massive contract extension before the season starts because why not?

The Yankees suck.